
In a world that's dependent on natural gas and eager for efficient ways to ship it, a company like South African-based
Sasol Ltd (NYSE:
SSL) will always be in demand. As a leader in the field of converting gas to diesel liquid (it also excels at converting coal to liquid), Sasol should always be a solid pick at the right price, especially since the company balances its risk in the cyclical energy markets with its chemical division, which produces a wide range of chemicals for industrial processes.
There are risks for a company like SSL beyond the cyclical nature of the energy markets. The company also faces competition from the growing popularity of liquefied natural gas. It can also suffer from unanticipated work stoppages, as happened for 40 days at one of its plants in the first half of 2007, forcing SSL to purchase synthetic fuels from third parties to fulfill its contracts, which cut into margins. If there are worldwide slowdowns in construction and other industries, there may be a slackening demand for both of SSL's divisions.
But I think SSL's integrated and diversified structure will protect it against any serious downside, and I'm impressed with a recent Bear Stearns report that predicted SSL will have a strong second half of 2007, driven mostly by improving sales in its chemical division, along with stronger margins created by recent technological developments that increase efficiency and should lower raw-material costs. The analyst predicted the fuels division would stay flat, but that this would be offset by the chemicals division. SSL will also benefit from a law passed in early August in South Africa that will protect SSL and other energy companies from any windfall taxes.
The Bear Stearns report predicted this stock to hit $50 in 2008; that's a gain of 25%, which may be ambitious, but I agree this company has room to grow, and the 2% dividend doesn't hurt either.
Type of Stock: A South African company specializing in fuel and chemical technologies.
Price Target: If the Bear Stearns report is correct, this stock is a solid buy at its current price near $40. But this stock can be volatile, and you might want to wait and see if you can grab it around $38 or even lower.
Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com.