The past couple of trading days it started to look as though oil had finally run out of steam and was coming back to "reasonable" levels. Well, prices are moving higher once again today following news that Iran has test-launched 9 missiles today.

After heading up to $145 a barrel last week, oil had fallen nicely over the past two trading sessions, and as of last night prices were down at $136.04. Today, oil is moving up $1.63 a barrel as the market once again is facing the hard reality of an unpredictable future in the Middle East.

Iran has been all over the news over the past couple of years, and the main theme is the country's nuclear energy ambitions. The West, and Israel, have been claiming for a long time now that Iran has one goal in mind... nuclear weapons. But Iran has been defiant in its claims that it is only after nuclear energy and that its nuclear program is purely for peaceful means.

We had the internet bubble and the real estate bubble and now, there is the ethanol bubble. Recently, I ran some numbers on ethanol and to my amazement realized that it is – too use a catch phrase from the environmental world -- not sustainable. Turning food into fuel is just plain silly; and when oil prices come down the ethanol bubble could pop big.

I ran did a little research and found some numbers:

• 47% of the Mexician' diet is corn
• it takes 2.4 pounds of corn a day to feed a hungry person
• it takes 22 pounds of corn to make one gallon of ethanol
• there are 42 gallons of refined gas in one barrel of oil

Now, a little basic math can be very enlightening. To replace one barrel of oil, it takes 42 gallons of ethanol or (42x22)=924 pounds of corn. That is enough corn to feed one hungry person for (924/2.4) 385 days – a little more than one year.

Oil continued to remain strong with prices moving slightly higher this morning, ahead of today's weekly inventory report. The main reason for prices remaining strong continues to be worries over oil supplies.

Traders have pushed prices through the $142 mark this morning, with the precious crude trading as high as $142.45, but have cooled off a bit and are now sitting at $141.06, which is $0.09 higher on the day. As Douglas McIntyre discussed earlier, typically such high oil prices are expected to put a crimp in demand, but this time around that may not be the case at all. Already many analysts are stating that demand may not fall too much, even with the record high gasoline prices.

We should get a slightly clearer picture on just how true that is later today when the Department of Energy releases the weekly inventory numbers. Last week inventories increased, but that is expected to reverse this week, and analysts are predicting this week's oil inventory numbers to actually show a decline of around 1.2 million barrels (compared with a 800,000 barrel increase that was reported last week).

In the first half of 2008, the S&P 500 fell 12%. June's stock market was the worst since 1930. So are stocks now a screaming buy or are they poised to plunge further? Nobody knows. But my guess is that stocks will move based on how well they perform compared with expectations. And the risk of negative surprises in most industries exceeds the chance of positive ones. So stocks will probably keep falling.

Here's a quick review of six negatives:

• Oil prices. With oil at $142, up 492% since January 2001, consumers are paying about $4.10 a gallon for gas and companies that use oil are getting squeezed while trying to raise prices. An attack on Iran, a big oil supplier, looms on the horizon. This and other geopolitical uncertainties could put further pressure on oil.
• Housing. Three million people are expected to face foreclosure on their homes. And prices have dropped 15%. Since people were using home equity to finance their purchasing, their negative equity is sucking the wind out of the economy.

It is reasonable to believe that as the cost of crude rises, demand will fall. It is in the Economics 101 textbooks. It has to to be true.

Not so, says The International Energy Agency. According to The New York Times, the think tank says "the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America."

The argument has the benefit of making sense. Asia, especially China, cannot keep up its GDP growth without gas to drive its transportation industry. It has cut the amount it provides to underwrite the price of diesel and gas, but it has not eliminated the practice. Driving a car or truck on the mainland is still cheap.

In the Middle East and Latin America, many of the countries are net exporters of crude. Brazil recently claimed that it found one of the largest oil deposits ever discovered. The field are just off its coast in the ocean. Many of the nations with excess oil will keep some of that at home to build their own infrastructures.

Oil prices are staying high whether the US can afford that or not.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Despite being on the verge of the best first six months of a year in the past 35 years, there are some concerns we may see a reversal in commodities over the next six months. This would come as a result of higher oil, copper and other raw materials prices that could put pressure on consumer spending and lead to a growth in supply.

The negative effects have already started to become visible as gasoline demand has slipped in the U.S. due to high costs, while gold purchases in India saw a plunge of 50% year-over-year. "I've probably been positive for seven years and this is the first time I think there could be really a dramatic secular reversal, that it's not just a pullback" Michael Aronstein, president of Marketfield Asset Management in New York, stated.

The impact will not pass unobserved for airline companies, who will face a decline in the number of travelers over the Fourth of July holiday, following soaring jet-fuel expenses. Copper and gold demand are also facing weak levels after the price for copper reached $4.2605 a pound May 5, the highest ever, while the price for gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce March 17, and is expected to average $850 this year and $750 next year.

What will it take to break the downward cycle for the U.S. stock market and its economy? Get back to our roots as a country that lives within its means.

The source of the problem is that we have gotten away from the idea of paying only for things we can afford. To close that affordability gap that results from lower income and higher prices, we have borrowed money -- $9.3 trillion in federal debt, a $410 billion federal budget deficit, and $2.5 trillion in consumer borrowing -- which has caused other countries to view the dollar as a distress currency. It's lost 72% of its value since January 2001 -- when it traded at 92 cents to the euro.

Having spent the last two weeks in Europe, that weak currency hurts -- everything seems to be about 50% more expensive there than it is here. Gasoline there is far more expensive than it is in the U.S. -- roughly $9.60 a gallon compared to $4.25 here. And the reason that our stock market is dropping while oil rises is a result of deliberate government policies designed to weaken the dollar and strengthen oil.

What can I say, one of my best stocks picks of 2007 has turned into one of my worst of 2008. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) the largest independent oil refiner in the United States has experienced shrinking profit margins as oil prices have continued to climb throughout the year.

It was reported in the Associated Press that a Wall Street analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co downgraded his expectations for the major oil refiners Wednesday. In regards to VLO, analyst Eitan Bernstein lowered his price target from $77 to $65.

Analysts are notoriously optimistic and I myself would not hazard a guess picking a number out of thin air given the number of variables to consider, but I would go as far as to say this downgrade makes me laugh.

The stock closed yesterday at $41.25 and is trading down further today around $40. But this is considerably lower then anyones price targets for the stock so perhaps this is a case where the downgrade is actually an upgrade.

My colleague Steven Halpern posted similar sentiments last week Valero (VLO): Ready for a refinery rebound?

This is a company with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.43 and a price-to-book of 1.42 that accompany a P/E of 7 and a yield of 1.41%. I may have been caught in the downdraft of a cyclical stock recommending it last December, but I sure do feel more comfortable recommending to readers that they examine VLO today.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.

Oil is starting the week off trading a little lower today, but Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is looking for oil prices to continue to move higher, and expects to see $150 much sooner than previously thought.

While speaking today at a conference in Malaysian's capital, Kuala Lumpur, Jeffrey Currie stated that the possibility that we were going to see $150 oil was real, and that he believed that we would hit that time sometime this summer. Goldman has been bullish on oil prices for some time now, and last month went so far as to state that we would be seeing $200 oil at some point within the next two years.

While $150 oil may sound insane, it really is not that big of a difference from where we are now. Today prices have retreated a bit back down to around $136.25, but Friday they were close to breaking through the $140 mark, after trading up more than $11 and hitting a high on of $139.12. All it would really take is just one or two more days like that to make $150 oil a reality.

The New York Times reports that some in Washington are using the latest economic catastrophe to push Congress to make tax breaks permanent. What these folks don't recognize is that the tax cuts are a big reason why the economy is in such bad shape to begin with. With unemployment spiking to 5.5%, the worst since 1986, and oil prices up a record $11 yesterday to $138 a barrel, it won't be long before you're paying $5 a gallon for gasoline.

And since oil is traded in dollars, its 70% decline since January 2001 from 92 cents to the Euro to its current $1.56 -- has been accompanied by a 475% rise in the price of oil. The $1.3 trillion worth of tax cuts -- 36% of which went to the top 1% -- are contributing to record deficits. In 2008, we'll have a $410 billion deficit and the 2009 figure looks to top $500 billion. And thanks to $3 trillion worth of wars, the U.S. is borrowing $9.4 trillion -- almost double where we were in 2000.

Thanks to these deficits, the U.S. is borrowing 66% of its $14.2 trillion GDP -- and any country borrowing more than 60% is seen by international investors as a credit risk. You'll hear people trying to convince you that deficits don't matter. But deficits are at the core of all the economic problems we face. Republicans used to be seen as the party of fiscal conservatism. But what they've actually done would terrify a prudent banker.

With oil prices at $130 a barrel, The Washington Post has finally picked up the story about how a regulatory loophole allows hedge funds and other institutional investors to control unlimited quantities of oil contracts. Over the last few weeks, I've posted about this topic here and here. Nobody seems to know how much of the oil trading these speculators control, but I came across one source that put the figure at 60%.

The so-called swaps loophole is promulgated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) which has exempted investment banks from rules that limit speculative buying, a prerogative traditionally reserved for airlines and trucking companies that need to lock in future fuel costs. The CFTC also waived regulations limiting trading in overseas markets.

The CFTC is complaining that it needs more resources. It claims that commodities trading has exploded in complexity and popularity growing six-fold in trading volume since 2000. But the CFTC's staff has dropped to its lowest levels in its 33-year history. According to CFTC acting Chairman Walter Lukken, "We could hire an extra 100 people and put them to work tomorrow given the inflow of trading volume."

I think the CFTC should close the loophole and get the people it needs to do its job. If the speculators can't find a way around the closed loophole, their share of oil trading volume will drop. Then we'll see what happens to the price of oil.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Paul Krugman's New York Times op-ed tries to defend his Princeton colleague, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Krugman suggests that inflation is not a problem because he can't find any long-term labor contracts with 11% annual pay increases as in 1981's United Mine Workers contract.

Krugman gets himself into a weak position and he does not disclose his fealty to Bernanke whom he evidently does not believe can defend himself. It seems absurd to pretend that inflation is not a problem. Food prices have tripled and oil prices have doubled as Bernanke cut the Fed funds rate from 5.25% to 2%. Last week Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) announced a 20% price increase as did Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) in response to rising oil and other commodity prices. Huntsman Chemical (NYSE: HUN) announced a 25% price increase. And consumers -- who account for 70% of GDP growth -- expect inflation to rise at a rate of 7.7%.

Reuters reports that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is in the middle of oil country -- Qatar -- talking about how a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest. With the dollar down 72% since January 2001, it would be nice if Paulson would use his power to strengthen the dollar.

Unfortunately, he doesn't have enough power or chooses not to use it. The power to influence the strength of the dollar resides in the Oval Office. With a $410 billion budget deficit, $9.4 trillion in government borrowing, and interest rates that have dropped from 5.25% to 2% since August, it's not a big surprise that the dollar is so weak.

And since oil is denominated in those ever-weaker dollars, the price of gasoline tops $4 a gallon -- a big "surprise" to the Oval Office occupant. Nevertheless, this is great news for Qatar and its neighboring countries. Our leaders are protecting the interests of those Middle Eastern countries -- both through military policies and economic ones -- while talking about a strong dollar.

Those countries have outsourced their military defense to the U.S. And the rest of us are paying the price.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

The Associated Press reports that the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating possible market manipulation by oil traders. The purpose is to shut down big trading bets that drive up the price of oil -- rather than follow the price discovery that results from the interaction of supply and demand. Since one source said that 60% of oil trading comes from speculators, the flow of capital into oil could fall as speculators stop their abuse. And the price of oil could drop.

The investigation went public yesterday and the CFTC appears to be examining whether investment banks are trading more than their share of contracts. As I posted, The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) is among the investment banks taking advantage of a swaps loophole that classifies them as a commercial market participant -- like an airline -- instead of a trader. This loophole allows these banks to avoid disclosure of their bets that oil will rise.

This excess capital flowing into oil -- and against the dollar -- has driven up the price of oil. If the price of oil was set solely on supply and demand, it would surely drop. The numbers I posted here suggest that demand in the U.S. is down 300,000 barrels per day thanks to the slowdown in driving due to $4 a gallon gas.

Now if we could get Goldman and its peers to start betting heavily on a drop in oil prices and a rise in the dollar, we'd really be getting somewhere. What's good for Goldman is good for America -- or at least the top 0.1% of Americans.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Goldman Sachs securities.

The New York Times reports that people are changing their habits thanks to $4 a gallon gasoline. Surprisingly, gasoline is not consuming as much of the family budget now as it did in 1979, but those high gas prices are hurting. Some people, me included, are skipping their traditional Memorial Day vacation -- opting instead for what AP dubs a Staycation.

People are certainly driving less. The Times reports that Americans drove 11 billion fewer miles than in March 2007, a decline of 4.3%. It is the first time since 1979 that traffic has dropped from one March to the next, and the month-on-month percentage decline is the largest since record keeping began in 1942.

And even though families are not paying as much of their income now as they did in 1979, we're funding our enemies -- Saudi Arabia, which supplied 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers, is the U.S.'s second largest oil provider -- 80% more than we were five years ago. Americans spend 3.7% of their disposable income on transportation fuels -- that hit a low of 1.9% in 1998 and a high of 4.5% in 1981.