One can look at likely rising oil and gasoline prices one of two ways. You can get frustrated, or you can profit from it by buying Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), which is why I'm reiterating my buy rating for the company, first recommended on May 6, 2009 at a price of $56.09. If you bought SLB in May, you're up about 18%.

Some in the oil sector remain concerned about the recovery in demand for oilfield services. Based on the growth track for emerging markets, that concern is not warranted: the natural gas segment may encounter some head-winds, near-term, because in that energy commodity, the glut of supply has actually been matched by a low price. But oil? Forget about it. Business is booming: the supply glut of oil has done little to lower its price, which shows one the many roles oil plays (alternative asset, inflation hedge, weak dollar hedge) in the modern economy, to Schlumberger's benefit. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for SLB are $2.71 to $2.81.

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR), first recommended on April 29, 2009 at a price of $47.80. If you bought then, you're up about 20%.

Murphy Oil remains the not-so-little-engine that could: Q2 upstream oil/natural gas production increased 18%, the company is on-track for 25-30% production growth in FY2009, and solid, double-digit gains in FY2010/FY2011.

Oil moved up above $70 early in the session, but was unable to hold that momentum through the day. After its strong start to the day, prices dropped $2.19 to $67.83.

A major reason for the drop in prices can be attributed to the World Bank. The World Bank slashed its forecast for this year's global economic growth, and reported that the current recession is deepening.

Why is there conflicting information coming out of the oil patch? One minute we hear that there's an oversupply of oil sitting in supertankers offshore. Now Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi says that higher consumption in China is driving up prices. He further states that the world economy has recovered enough to sustain $75 to $80 per barrel oil. Is some of this just hype ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting?

We should keep in mind, however, that markets do not always move on fundamentals. Very often "perception" plays a bigger role. Prices have recovered from $32.70 in February to $63 per barrel recently. Much of this increase, even Mr. Naimi concedes, is due to speculation.

Earlier in the session we were looking at lower oil prices, but the mood has changed, and the precious crude is trading higher with the overall market today, picking up nearly 2.5% on the day.

Yesterday, despite rumors to the contrary, OPEC decided to leave its oil output alone, and this had the initial reaction of sending prices lower in early morning trading. With oil prices falling sharply since last summer, many analysts had been expecting to see a production cut from the group, but instead OPEC announced that it would be leaving its output unchanged, and stated that previous cuts were starting to take effect.

Very often you can get a sense of the way a market is reacting by what is not happening. OPEC is meeting next Sunday to review their strategy in light of the current financial crisis. There is an indication that OPEC may not cut production this time around. Why is this?

Here are several reasons why we may see things stay as they are. First and foremost is that OPEC members "talk the talk" but they all do not "walk the walk." For example, Saudi Arabia has cut production by 16% since September but Iran cut its production only 4.3% and Venezuela cut its production by 8.3%. So as usual OPEC has difficulty holding each of its members to an agreed upon reduction.

"Long term, supply remains the key issue to watch in the crude oil market; depressed prices continue to force producers to scale back on exploration and development spending," says energy expert Elliott Gue.

In The Energy Strategist, he says, "I watch oil service giant Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) as a gauge of overall health in energy markets; it has its hands in just about every imaginable oil- or gas-producing market on the planet."

"Schlumberger's fourth quarter earnings release and conference call were far and away the most bearish from the company in at least five years.

"CEO Andrew Gould was notably downbeat, particularly during the analysts' question and answer (Q&A) session. Predictably, earnings estimates have plummeted since that call.

There are two competing forces at work in the oil market. On the one hand, OPEC has already cut production by 4.2 million barrels per day since last September. OPEC's secretary has said the producer group was willing to make further cuts when it meets in March. The price of crude has been holding steady near (above or below) the $40.00 per barrel mark.

Another factor weighing on the market is the threat of some 30,000 U.S. refinery workers who may go on strike. This can bring our refinery capacity to a virtual standstill. In Britain, workers staged an unofficial walkout on Friday in protest over the use of foreign workers.

Oil prices are getting a big boost today, as investors are betting on hearing news of huge production cuts coming out of OPEC this week.

With oil well off its highs from over the summer, many had already been expecting to see OPEC step in and cut production, but earlier this month OPEC made it clear that it wants to shock the market into sending prices higher.

Prices have moved up over $50 a barrel today, hitting a high of $50.05, but have cooled off slightly and are currently sitting at $49.25, up $2.97 as we await to hear exactly how deep the production cuts could run.

The Saudis announced an oil production cut of 8% to 8.47 million barrels per day and the price Light Sweet Crude rallied sharply early this morning ended up only $1.75. Why is that? Well the U.S. announced that product demand dropped by 6.1%. So while traders were exuberant this morning and drove prices up, by the afternoon, caution has replaced euphoria.

Trading can be an emotional game, often alternating between euphoria and despair in a matter of hours. Traders who bought this morning are now holding a loss. A good trader has taken his/her loss and will come back tomorrow, having erased this day from his/her mind.

Now, here comes the real dilemma. Since the price of Light Sweet Crude did not hold its gains today, does this mean that oil will continue dropping or will the price stabilize at these levels and then move higher? This is a high stakes game that obviously affects our economy. On the one hand, the U.S. wants low oil prices to energize our economy, while on the other side of the world the Saudis want oil to climb back up to $60-75 per barrel. Keep an eye on this one.

Oil got off to a strong start today, climbing over $3 earlier in the session, but the last couple hours have seen the precious crude give back its earlier gains and is now trading down slightly on the day at $80.88, down $0.31.

The early day jump was in reaction to continued optimism that a full blown global recession could be avoided with the infusion of $125 billion by the U.S. government into nine major banks.

Last week at this time, we were pretty much all asking ourselves the question of just how bad are things going to get, and this led to a week-long panic in the market that sent all the major international exchanges into free fall. Now it seems like, for the moment, the panic is behind us and investors are starting to suspect that perhaps things are not going to be as bad as people were beginning to believe last week. We won't be looking at the next Great Depression, or so we hope, but with this market, emotion seems to change in a heartbeat.

Upset about paying $3.80 a gallon for gasoline? Hank Paulson, former Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) CEO, argued that it was all supply and demand so quit your bellyaching. I thought speculation was playing a big part -- traders who bought oil and sold the dollar to drive up the price. Indeed, a few months agao I found a source who thinks 60% of the volume was from speculators.

Seems even that was too low an estimate. The Washington Post reported Wednesday that the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has analyzed the books of oil traders and calculated that 81% of oil trading volume was conducted by speculators.

Guess who broke open the opportunity for oil speculators to trade oil in a loosely regulated fashion? Goldman. The Post reports that In 1991, its J. Aron unit argued that "it should be granted the same exemption given to commercial traders because its business of buying commodities on behalf of investors was similar to the middlemen who broker commodity transactions for commercial firms."

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) today posted yet another record profit. The problem is that the results were not as fabulous as Wall Street expected.

Net income at the world's largest oil company surged 14% to $11.7 billion, or $2.22 a share, from $10.3 billion, or $1.83, a year earlier, the Irving, Texas-based company said in a statement. The results, which broke the company's previous record, trailed Wall Street expectations by a whopping 26 cents, according to Bloomberg News. They trailed the Thomson Reuters forecast by 25 cents. Revenue rose 40.4% to $138.07 billion.

The earnings were a mixed bag. The upstream business jumped 68%, while liquid oil volumes fell and natural gas production declined. Slumping margins pushed down profit at the downstream business by 54% and 32% in the chemicals business, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Even though Exxon Mobil is rolling in money, it's spending quite a bit of it as well.

We had the internet bubble and the real estate bubble and now, there is the ethanol bubble. Recently, I ran some numbers on ethanol and to my amazement realized that it is – too use a catch phrase from the environmental world -- not sustainable. Turning food into fuel is just plain silly; and when oil prices come down the ethanol bubble could pop big.

I ran did a little research and found some numbers:

• 47% of the Mexician' diet is corn
• it takes 2.4 pounds of corn a day to feed a hungry person
• it takes 22 pounds of corn to make one gallon of ethanol
• there are 42 gallons of refined gas in one barrel of oil

Now, a little basic math can be very enlightening. To replace one barrel of oil, it takes 42 gallons of ethanol or (42x22)=924 pounds of corn. That is enough corn to feed one hungry person for (924/2.4) 385 days – a little more than one year.

Oil prices are down a bit after trading up close to $127 a barrel yesterday on fears that production cuts could be coming out of oil rich Iran.

While the chatter out of Iran could be just that, idle chatter, there was still enough of a reason to spook investors into pushing crude oil up significantly Tuesday, leading to a closing price last night of a pretty remarkable $125.80. Prices hit a high Tuesday of $126.98.

One of the main factors that has led to the current record high prices is the weak U.S. dollar. Yesterday, the dollar actually rose a bit, but traders looked past that data and instead decided that any sort of production cut rumors coming out of Iran warranted more attention.