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Oil prices drop sharply on inventory report

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:00:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Money and Finance Today, Oil, Recession, Financial Crisis

When we looked at oil prices yesterday, we noted that the market was going to pay close attention to today's inventory report from the Depart of Energy.

Oil was already weak after yesterday's report on consumer confidence, and today's oil inventory report showed a much larger than expected increase in oil inventories, pushing prices sharply lower.

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Oil flip-flops after weekly inventory data

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 17:00:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Oil, Recession

It has been a crazy day for oil traders. Immediately following today's inventory report from the Energy Information Agency, oil took a major turn lower, but in late day trading has turned around and is once again pushing towards the psychological $50 mark.

Looking at the report, oil inventories did exactly what they were expected to do: rise 1.94 million barrels for the week ended March 13. What initially sent oil prices lower was news that gasoline inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels. Analysts had been looking to see gasoline inventories actually shrink for the week by 2.1 million barrels.

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Oil moves higher despite bearish inventory report

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:15:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Products and Services, Middle East, Economic Data, Oil, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis

Oil prices inched up slightly today, despite the fact that inventories swelled much more than the market had anticipated last week. Going into today's inventory report from the U.S. Department of Energy, analysts had been expecting to see an increase in oil inventories last week. But, on average, analysts had been expecting that the increase would be around 3.4 million barrels, and the actual increase was much larger, with a reported 6.2 million increase: a very bearish indicator.

Typically when we see inventories rise so much higher than expected, we would expect to see traders push oil prices lower, but not today. Instead, oil was able to move a bit higher on the day, trading up 58 cents a barrel to $42.16. Earlier in the session prices had been up as high as $43.60.

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The International Energy Agency warns of lack of investment in oil production

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:05:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Economic Data, Oil

In a new report today, the International Energy Agency warned that an insufficient amount of investment into oil supply is going to result in a serious supply shortage that could make the recent record high oil prices look weak in comparison.

Oil prices spiked to a record high $147 a barrel earlier this summer, but have since been in a pretty steady downward spiral, and were down again today, as the credit crunch and recession fears have created fear among oil investors that oil demand is going to erode over the months to come.

Prices were off sharply again today, and in afternoon trading oil was down another $3.17 a barrel to $56.16, off 5.3% on the day, as the U.S. government lowered its forecast for oil next year to $63.50, down from its previous estimate of $112 that it maintained back in October.

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Goldman Sachs looking for $150 oil soon

Michael Fowlkes — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:54:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Commodities, Oil, DJIA

Oil is starting the week off trading a little lower today, but Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is looking for oil prices to continue to move higher, and expects to see $150 much sooner than previously thought.

While speaking today at a conference in Malaysian's capital, Kuala Lumpur, Jeffrey Currie stated that the possibility that we were going to see $150 oil was real, and that he believed that we would hit that time sometime this summer. Goldman has been bullish on oil prices for some time now, and last month went so far as to state that we would be seeing $200 oil at some point within the next two years.

While $150 oil may sound insane, it really is not that big of a difference from where we are now. Today prices have retreated a bit back down to around $136.25, but Friday they were close to breaking through the $140 mark, after trading up more than $11 and hitting a high on of $139.12. All it would really take is just one or two more days like that to make $150 oil a reality.

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Oil moves past $122

Michael Fowlkes — Tue, 06 May 2008 12:38:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Commodities, Oil, Recession

Oil continues its charge today, with prices rising above $122. At noon, oil is at $122.21, up $2.21.

The bulls have definitely had plenty of reason to continue to push prices higher this week. Concerns over supplies and the weak U.S. dollar continue to lead headlines, adding a boost to the current record high prices. Unfortunately for consumers at the gasoline pumps, higher oil will probably continue to prop up gasoline prices.

In an already uncertain market, any sort of rumors over supplies will always lead to higher prices, and that is definitely playing a part in the current market. Fresh concerns are flowing out of Iraq after Kurdish rebels threatened to start running suicide operations against American interests in the country. Iran is (as always) in the minds of traders as the country continues to defy the United Nations over its nuclear program.

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Market worries push oil prices under $90

Michael Fowlkes — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Press Releases, Middle East, Economic Data, Commodities, Oil, Federal Reserve

Earlier today oil prices had traded higher, as traders were betting that this past weekend's wintry weather would put a crimp in heating oil supplies. Since then, though, oil prices since turned to the downside, dipping under the psychological $90 barrier.

The main reason why oil prices have been falling today? You guessed it ... concerns over the health of the overall economy. Today's concerns are a runoff of last Friday's CPI report, which showed that inflation during the month of November was the highest that the economy had seen in the past two years. This sent the market tumbling to close out last week, and the bears have only continued to push down the market again today.

There has been a growing fear over the past year that the U.S. economy was moving full steam ahead towards a recession. The one thing that has provided some hope was the anticipation that the Federal Reserve would be willing to continue to slash interest rates in order to fuel economic activity and fight off any looming recession.

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OPEC leaves quotas alone

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 08:55:00 EST

Filed under: Before the Bell, International Markets, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Oil

Despite wide speculation over the past couple of weeks that OPEC would lift its production quotas today, the oil cartel has announced that it decided to leave things as they are for now.

The main reason why the thirteen nation oil cartel probably decided to leave production unchanged is the fact that oil had dropped almost 10% in past week-and-a-half. Ironically, one of the main reasons for the recent drop was the anticipation that OPEC would be lifting its production quotas.

The group is next scheduled to gather on February 1 of next year to take another look at the current market environment and discuss possible changes at that time.

Crude prices have moved higher on today's news, with oil trading up $1.23 to $89.55 and earlier in the session broke through the $90 mark to hit a high on the day of $90.39.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

OPEC leaves quotas alone originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Dec 2007 08:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Oil continues its retreat on economic concerns

Michael Fowlkes — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 14:02:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Rumors, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Oil

We took a look at how oil prices were starting to fade yesterday afternoon, and in today's session, they have continued right where they left off. Prices have fallen $2.59 to $95.11 as traders worry about a slowing economy and a possible production increase from OPEC.

Earlier this week, it looked as though oil was going to be making its final charge to break through $100 a barrel, but now the mood has changed as concerns are mounting over the effect an economic slowdown could have on oil demand. Since the middle of this year we have been hearing whispers from Wall Street that a possible recession is on the way, and this chatter has seemed to really pick up over the past week.

Just today we got even more worrisome news when the current consumer confidence figures showed a drop down to 87.3, which is the lowest level we have seen confidence since back in October 2005. There has also been a rise in people thinking that the economy is in trouble to 19.1%, up from 16.6%.

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OPEC rumors push oil prices lower

Michael Fowlkes — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 14:02:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Rumors, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Oil

After getting off to a strong start earlier in the session, oil prices have traded lower in mid-day action on a growing assumption that OPEC will elect to raise its output quota during next week's meeting. It should come as no surprise really that we are starting to hear some OPEC rumors considering that oil prices have ballooned by over 40% since August and have been testing even inflation-adjusted all time highs in its pursuit of the $100 mark.

As fellow BloggingStocks writer Joseph Lazzaro pointed out earlier this morning, prices had risen as high as $99.11 this morning in reaction to lower temperatures, but that has all changed as traders have instead focused on news from over the weekend indicating that the thirteen nation oil cartel OPEC may be considering production increases next week.

The main cause for the rising belief in OPEC adjustments comes from a statement this weekend by Iranian Oil Minister Iranian Gholam Hossein Nozari, who stated that his country would be willing to consider lifting its quota. According to Nozari, "if statistics and data indicate there is a need to produce more oil, we have the capacity to increase the output and supply more oil for the market." However, he made it clear that he did not believe that the world was currently facing a shortage of the precious crude.

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Oil prices cool off as storm worries fizzle out

Michael Fowlkes — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 16:15:00 EST

Filed under: Consumer Experience, Middle East, Commodities, Oil

Oil prices have retreated a bit today as last week's concerns over a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be unwarranted. Now that the latest supply disruption scare has passed, most analysts are expecting to see prices continue to fall after oil's strong gains earlier this month.

I would caution against assuming too quickly that prices are going to head too much further south. There are still several factors that could easily keep prices at least where they are now, if not higher. The main issue this time of year is always going to be possible hurricane disruptions.

While this past weekend's scare fizzled out before causing any damage, the next possible major storm could form at any time, which would resonate panic in the markets and edge prices higher.

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Option update: ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) volatility flat as oil trades above $82

Paul Foster — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:52:00 EST

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) implied volatility near average as oil trades above $82.

XOM closed at $91.76. Crude oil futures were up 0.79% to $82.15 according to Bloomberg. XOM overall option implied volatility of 26 is near its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) implied volatility near average as oil trades above $82.

CVX is an integrated energy company with a market cap of $198 billion and quarterly June 2007 revenue of $56 billion. CVX closed at $93.34. Crude oil futures are up 0.79% to $82.15 according to Bloomberg. CVX overall option implied volatility of 25 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) volatility flat as oil trades above $82 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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