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Many states appear to be in recession, fiscal survey shows

The United States is an enormous, diverse nation, and there's perhaps no better evidence of that than the U.S.'s current economic cycle.

The finances of many states have deteriorated to such a degree that they appear to be in recession, even though the nation as a whole may not be, a survey of 50 state fiscal directors concluded.

The states: budget deficits abound

The National Conference of State Legislatures' survey says that "arguing whether the national economy is in recession is almost beside the point" because the fiscal condition of some states has declined so much that they appear to be in a recession.

In all, 23 states, including hard-hit housing slump states Florida, California, and Nevada, expect to report budget deficits in the next fiscal year, fiscal 2009, with the aggregate revenue shortfall reaching $26 billion. Further, more than two-thirds of the states said they are concerned or pessimistic regarding their F2009 revenue outlook.

Historically, most states experience a decline in revenue as the U.S. economy contracts, as the economic slowdown results in lower retail sales, which lowers sales tax revenue -- a major source of revenue for many states. Job layoffs also decrease state income tax revenue. Further, state social service costs typically increase, as unemployment claims increase and applications for income/food/energy assistance rise.

Florida, California hard hit

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday the NCSL data is in-line with the profile of this cycle's economic slowdown. "From the research we can see that the states under most stress are those that rank very high regarding mortgage default and housing foreclosure lists, with Florida and California being the most obvious examples," Dawson said. "These states are going to be under fiscal stress for a considerable period of time due to the size of their housing correction."

Moreover, Dawson said because of California's and Florida's size, "it will be very hard for the nation to grow at capacity until these states have started to grow." Hence, a return to robust economic conditions nationally, "could be a year to 18 months off, assuming growth resumes nationally by late 2008," he said.

Continue reading Many states appear to be in recession, fiscal survey shows

Investing in Oklahoma: Sonic (SONC), Dollar Thrifty (DTG), OGE Energy (OGE)

Oklahoma turns 100 years old this year, and I wrote a bit about its business climate in my recent Investing in Oklahoma post. That post featured some growth companies based in Oklahoma: Arena Resources Inc. (NYSE: ARD), Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE: HP), Unit Corp. (NYSE: UNT), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), and the Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB).

Earlier this year, the Motley Fool also took at look at Oklahoma companies, and focused on some of the same energy sector companies that I did. Its search also included two non-energy companies as well: drive-in burger chain Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC) for its growth potential, and Tulsa-based Dollar Thrifty Automotive (NYSE: DTG).

Sonic recently announced 21 consecutive years of positive same-store sales performance, and reaffirmed its 33 cents earnings per share earnings expectations for the fourth quarter. For fiscal 2008, Sonic expects earnings growth of 15% to 17%. The consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is that Sonic is a buy. The share price was $23.40 at the close on Friday, up from a 52-week low of $20.02 in late July, not yet quite back to its 52-week high of $25.09 in May, but still up from its stumble at the end of August after an analyst's downgrade based on labor and dairy costs. That was before the announcement and reaffirmed expectations mentioned above. Also, Sonic made the Forbes list of 100 best mid cap stocks in America.

Continue reading Investing in Oklahoma: Sonic (SONC), Dollar Thrifty (DTG), OGE Energy (OGE)

Investing in Oklahoma: Arena Resources (ARD), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), ONEOK (OKE) and others

Oklahoma celebrates its centennial in November -- Happy Birthday, Oklahoma!

Today, Oklahoma is known as one of the most business-friendly states, due in part to low tax rates. Oklahoma's economy is based largely on the energy, aviation, and food processing sectors. From 2000 to 2006, Oklahoma's gross domestic product increased 50 percent. The GDP per capita grew almost 10 percent between 2005 and 2006, one of the highest rates in the nation.

Fortune magazine's 2007 list of the fastest growing companies in the U.S. included six from Oklahoma. At number three on the list was Tulsa-based Arena Resources Inc. (NYSE: ARD), a seven-year old oil and gas firm with a three-year annual growth rate of 165 percent. Back in August, Arena announced strong second quarter 2007 financial and operating results. Arena is also a major holding in the Bruce Fund, which recently made the 2007 Forbes Honor Roll.

Tulsa-based oil and gas driller Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE: HP) had a three-year annual growth rate of 37 percent, which beat the S&P 500. In August, H&P announced strong second quarter 2007 results, as well as two new contracts. The Motley Fool sees expansion in other sectors as good news for drillers such as H&P.

Continue reading Investing in Oklahoma: Arena Resources (ARD), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), ONEOK (OKE) and others

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 10:54 AM

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