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Follow Fidelity into China's Online Retailer Dangdang

Dangdang logoOne could argue that the U.S. equity market is getting a little frothy at current levels and that bullish sentiment is getting ahead of the fundamentals. The preponderance of the evidence, however, seems to suggest that this may continue for some time. If it does, it may be time to take some shots with high risk/high reward speculative stocks.

One of these names is recent Chinese IPO E-Commerce China Dangdang (DANG), which has been promoted as the "Amazon.com of China."

Continue reading Follow Fidelity into China's Online Retailer Dangdang

Amazon Still Looks Good After Q3 Earnings

Amazon's (AMZN) 52-week low is $91.70 and its 52-week high is $166.13. It closed yesterday's regular session at $164.97. It ran into some trouble during the after-hours period that followed, falling 4% at one point to $158.30. Is it time to panic and send in the sell order?

I don't think so. Quite frankly, I've learned that this online retailer has the kind of brand equity that will allow it to generate growth for years to come. Consumers love and trust the experience they get from using the site. Not only is this company useful for the long-term, it's also been a pretty good bet for traders as well.

Continue reading Amazon Still Looks Good After Q3 Earnings

Three Tech Game Changers You Don't Want to Miss Out On

We are now in the most interesting time of each quarter for stocks and the market: earnings season. Sure, earnings are always important, but this one is about as significant as it can get because the U.S. economy and stock market are at such a crossroads.

In our modern world, technology is now one of the most closely watched sectors in every earnings season because it is central to our economy. Here are 3 tech stocks to buy that are reporting this week and that deserve a close look.

Continue reading Three Tech Game Changers You Don't Want to Miss Out On

Amazon Down After Q2 Release

Amazon.com AMZN logoAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) was down earlier this afternoon by over 4% to a price of $115.15, which is well below the 52-week high of $151.09. That might make the stock look unappealing in some sense, but I'll tell you what: the latest earnings report shows that the company is doing very well with its operational strategies.

The following chart illustrates the stock's recent struggles. After peaking in April, the bias has been toward the downside. But is this pullback attractive for those who were considering adding the name to a portfolio?

Continue reading Amazon Down After Q2 Release

Amazon Receives a Positive Initiation: Time to Buy?

I like Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN). It's a fascinating company and stock, and it's been good to many investors. However, it's recently experienced a dip in share price. The 52-week high for the equity is $151.09. The current price is around $126. The following chart shows the weakness that has occurred over the last several weeks.

According to our Analyst Calls piece, Amazon received a nice initiation from ThinkEquity. The retailer was given a buy rating and a price target of $154.

Continue reading Amazon Receives a Positive Initiation: Time to Buy?

Why would Amazon open physical stores?

There has been a rumor floating around that Amazon (AMZN) plans to open physical stores. Really?! Stores?!

Amazon is a known quality in the online retail space -- it's the industry leader. That's a great place to be right now. On Black Friday, overall retail sales edged higher only 0.5%, but online action spiked 35%. Let's do the math, why the hell would anyone move from zeroes and ones to bricks and mortars?

Continue reading Why would Amazon open physical stores?

Online sales to be darling of holiday season

Online retail sales are expected to increase 3% to $28.8 billion for this year's holiday season. The analysts at comScore include traditional retailers, like Macy's (M) in this estimate, but don't count auction sites like eBay (EBAY), travel or corporate sales. The estimate compares favorably against the National Retail Federation's forecast of a 1% year-over-year drop for all retail sales and exceeds the industry's most aggressive holiday season sales estimates of 2%.

Last year, online retail sales fell 3% for the holiday season, the first decline since the industry started keeping score in 2001. Even if we don't hit the 3% growth level this year, 2009 is still expected to be better than 2008, now that the economy has stabilized (at least relative to last year).

Continue reading Online sales to be darling of holiday season

Consumers dislike web tracking, but not enough to change behavior

Traditional retailers haven't exactly embraced online sales channels. Sure, they all have websites, and they sell varying amounts of merchandise through them, but they've been slow to tap into the potential. When I was watching the space as an analyst at a major consulting firm (admittedly, back in 2007), many retailers equated a website to a new store opening. Finally, however, this industry is starting to see the potential of this venue, particularly when it comes to tracking consumer behavior.

When the CEO of Macy's (NYSE: M), Terry Lundgren, says that online sales are only good for 6% of last year's total sales, it's a hint. The translation: "We focus on where the revenue is" is much different from "We focus on where the revenue could be." Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), on the other hand, sees the upside of playing in the online space, which is where it saw revenues spike 85% last year. Aeropostale has seen increases in traditional venues too, but nothing like what it's realized on the web.

So, maybe there's something to this internet, after all.

Continue reading Consumers dislike web tracking, but not enough to change behavior

Amazon.com earnings preview: Expectations too high for Q3?

After the closing bell on Thursday, internet retailer Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) will step into the earnings spotlight. Experts believe that Amazon will report third-quarter earnings of 33 cents per share with revenue of $5.03 billion. Amazon forecast third-quarter revenue of $4.75 billion to $5.25 billion. In last year's third quarter, Amazon earned 27 cents per share with revenue of $4.26 billion.

With the economy struggling, what should we expect from Amazon? Reportedly, ThinkEquity saw traffic data that implies Amazon's unique visitors rose 23% in the latest quarter. If this is the case, the retailer's sales should have received a bit of a push in the quarter, which could lead to higher earnings. In fact, the ThinkEquity analyst (Ed Weller) told the Associated Press that he expects Amazon to report earnings of 35 cents per share on revenue of $5.13 billion.

Continue reading Amazon.com earnings preview: Expectations too high for Q3?

Amazon gets big upgrade

Amazon UpgradedShares of online retailer Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) are trading a bit higher this afternoon after being upgraded today by Susquehanna Financial.

Susquehanna Financial analyst Marianne Wolk raised her rating on the stock this morning to a "positive" from a "neutral" rating and put a $100 price target on the company. The stock is currently trading up 1.7% on the day to $76.91, up $1.28.

Continue reading Amazon gets big upgrade

Hershey to eliminate online business

Want to stock up on Hershey's tasty treats? Get in while the getting is good.

Stating that its "current business model is not sustainable," Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) is closing its online store -- HerseysGifts.com -- as of July 31. After that, consumers with a sweet tooth for products such as chocolate-covered Macadamia nuts or a five-bound Hershey bar will have to visit local stores. Products can be customized for special occasions and run from $10 to $150.

Continue reading Hershey to eliminate online business

Amazon had a great Q4, but don't buy just yet

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), whose competitors include eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), is up today after the online retailer released its Q4 numbers yesterday after the bell. And when I say "up", I mean amazingly up. The stock was in the green by well over 17% at the time of this writing. According to Stocks in the News, both revenue and net income beat Wall Street's view. Sales rose 18%, and net income came in at $0.52 per share versus expectations of $0.39 per share. I'd say that was a little better than consensus, wouldn't you?

Continue reading Amazon had a great Q4, but don't buy just yet

Online spending not really up

The good news this holiday season is that online spending for gifts is up. Depending on the source, the rise is somewhere between 4% and 9%.

The missing piece of the story not reflected in those numbers is that people are spending much less per transaction. While activity may be up, retailer profitability may be down, way down.

According to The New York Times, the Chase Paymentech's Cyber Holiday Pulse Index tells a depressing story. "Chase's index, which surveys 25 of the largest 150 retailers on its Internet payment processing network, showed that the average shopper spent $7.19 less per transaction on Cyber Monday this year over last."

Online spending is not likely to be the only place where this is happening. Consumers, under financial pressure due to lack of credit and concerns about their jobs, are probably spending less everywhere they go. That would make sense. Getting overextended financially is much more risky this year than at any time in the recent past, perhaps going back decades. Why shell out a lot of money? Who knows how bad 2009 will be.

Retailers work on narrow margins, sometimes as low as 2%. Discounts can wipe that out. Comparisons with last year's shopping activity can be very deceiving.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Online retail grows a measly 1% in October as the economy stalls

Online data measurement company comScore released on Tuesday October 2008 e-commerce figures, saying it was the slowest growth it has measured since 2001, when it has started tracking the data. After years of solid growth for online retailers (from double digits to single digits recently), October online retail sales grew at a measly 1%. When online retail growth comes to a screeching halt, with all those heavy discounts and free shipping, something's amiss.

Let's take a look at the last five months in online retail sales growth: 11% to 8% to 6% to 5% to 1%. Yikes. ComScore chairman Gian Fulgoni indicated that rising prices and unemployment rates combined with the psychological impact of the global economic situation has consumers frozen on many of their spending. It will be interesting to see what November's growth figure is like, even with the official start of the holiday shopping season.

ComScore's most significant figure was that spending for households that make below $50,000 per year has dropped off significantly, declining 3% in October compared to the month a year-ago. For households making $50,000 to $100,000, spending increased 1% in October, while households making over $100,000 increased spending to the tune of 14% in October. So, according to comScore, growth really did come to an almost complete stop for households earning less than $100,000. Will spending recover for this demographic for the next month and a half? Doubtful.

High gas prices fuel e-commerce

Those who cannot drive are going online. Cruising to the mall, if it is 20 or 30 miles away, is no longer a cheap trip. With gas at $4 a gallon, some potential shoppers may not go to the mall at all.

Thank goodness for the internet. More and more people are getting online to buy the things they need. In an economy where many people feel poor, the average online shopper may not be spending big, but he is spending.

According to The New York Times, retailers "are experiencing double-digit sales growth at their shopping Web sites, creating a surprising bright spot during an otherwise gloomy time for sales in brick-and-mortar stores." The paper adds that Gap (NYSE: GPS) "had an 11 percent decline in same-store sales in the first quarter, but a 21 percent increase in online sales."

While the news is a silver lining, it probably does little to save the earnings of large retailers. Internet sales are still a relatively small portion of total revenue for companies that have to support the real estate and personnel costs at significant numbers of large stores. E-commerce traffic may lift numbers a bit, but they do not bring down the expense base that represents most of the problem for retail profitability.

Until the internet sales are 15% or 20% of total sales for a company like Gap, investors should not look at online revenue as a reason to buy retail stocks.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 04:22 AM

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