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Posts with tag Options trading

Technical trader targets Dell (DELL)

"Our latest Focus Stock is a bullish play on Dell Computer (NASDAQ: DELL)," says Chris Johnson, who uses both a technical and contrarian-based approach in his Insightful Investor.

"Dell Computer is one of the largest retail computer manufactures in the world. The company supplies businesses and consumers with PC computers, printers, and other peripherals.

"For years, we've watched Michael Dell's company languish, as a slowdown in PC demand combined with a saturation of the PC market caused DELL shares to fall more than 50%. Now, after spending the past four months trading around the 20 mark, the stock may be ready to make a short-term run.

"From a technical perspective, the stock has recently built a bottom around the 20 level. This comes after bouncing from the lows near 18, which also represents the lows during the bear market started in 2000.

Continue reading Technical trader targets Dell (DELL)

Lenny Dykstra, stock market expert?

I'm puzzled by a lot of things about the market, but the ascent of former Major League Baseball All-Star Lenny Dykstra to the throne of options trading pundit is pretty interesting.

He writes regularly for TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM), with a focus on the trading of deep in the money calls, one of the less risky options trading strategies out there. A 2006 look at his background in Fortune summed his market experience up this way: "After his mutual funds tanked, Lenny Dykstra leaned on some heavy hitters to transform him from an ex-major leaguer to a minor-league stock picker. At the time, he was talking to the reporter about a stock he owned called Lipid Sciences (NASDAQ: LIPD), which has steadily declined in value since that article. It was the only stock he owned.

Outside of his columns and appearances on CNBC, Mr. Dykstra's media attention has been less than positive. His name appears 28 times in the Mitchell Report on steroid use in baseball, but he declined to speak with Mitchell's team. In an affidavit, for Major Leaguer and steroid user Jason Grimsley accused Dykstra of using steroids.

Continue reading Lenny Dykstra, stock market expert?

MarketWatch options expert 'calls' on Sears

In The MarketWatch Options Trader, David Nassar takes a look at the Fed's recent actions, the outlook for the overall stock market and an options play on Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD).

He explains, "The Fed's infusion of liquidity seems to have turned the tide in favor of the bulls -- at least for now. However, lest one think that everything is 'go,' it is useful to note that 'V' bottoms in the broad market are very rare. "

Rather, he notes, it is much more typical for the first rally (i.e., the one we're having now) to eventually give way to another decline. Nassar states, "If that decline does not fall below the previous lows, then a bullish pattern can arise. This is the pattern of nearly every bottom in the last 20 years."

Therefore, he suggests, "While we respect the strength of the rally and realize that more Fed moves could result in higher prices short-term, we still think there is a reasonable chance that the closing Standard & Poor's 500 Index lows at 1407 or the intraday lows at 1370 will be retested sometime in the next few weeks."

Time-wise, he suggests, "Occasionally, these retests take longer (at the 2002 bottom, for example, the initial lows in July were retested in October -- and then again the following March). In between, strong rallies can erupt, but eventually it is the retesting mechanism that delineates the true bottom."

In the meantime, he sees upside potential in Sears Holding. He explains, "The stock has tentatively completed a bottoming formation, when it broke out over 140 yesterday."

For those familiar with options trading, he concludes, "While options are pretty expensive here, and earnings are due on August 30, we think this is reasonable speculation." The trading expert recommends the Sears Holding October 140 calls at a price of $10.80 or less. If bought, he counsels, stop yourself out on a close below $133.

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

Insider activity keeps going and going and going...

When I saw the headlines Energizer (NYSE: ENR) buys Playtex (NYSE: PYX), I immediately thought that the late night talk shows are going to have fun with this one. I could see Saturday Night Live writers really putting together an interesting skit involving a very moody bunny. But back to the news...

Energizer made an offer to buy Playtex, and shares of Playtex rose $2.79 (15.9%) to close at $17.97. But then I was curious to look at the option trading on Playtex. Insider trading has been running rampant recently and it is very easy to spot in the options market.

If you look at the option volume on the August 15 Calls (PYX HC) there is an interesting history. There were no options traded for three weeks, then on Tuesday, 51 traded. That is not unusual. Then on Wednesday, there were 5,488 options traded for a high price of $1.00 a piece. That is unusual. Today there were 4,649 options traded for a more than $2.95 a piece. This is just too good of timing to be coincidental. I mean I believe in good luck as much as the next guy, but this certainly appears that someone managed to beat the Friday the 13th curse today.

Now there is a small chance that when the Playtex president DeFeo canceled his speaking engagement on Wednesday, some observers got wind of something as the shares jumped mid-day; but it appears someone got wind that the buyout was coming and decided to make a little bet.

That bet proved to be profitable as $548,800 invested turned into $1,618,960 over the course of three days. Tripling your money over the course of three days is not a bad investment and the way the SEC has been laxly enforcing stuff recently, maybe they will get away with it.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Do you have any deadwood in your portfolio? Check out the 18 Warning Signs That Tell You To Dump A Stock.

Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

McMillan's call: IBM and the S&P 500

According to options trading expert Larry McMillan, "Three favorable economic data releases in as many days has changed the fundamental and also technical picture from bearish to moderately bullish in as many days."

In his The Options Strategist trading newsletter he explains, "Resistance at 1515 to 1520 for the S&P 500 was overcome on a closing basis; and new all-time intra-day highs (1552) for the index are once again in sight as a result: though the previous recent high around the 1540 level now represents near-term resistance which will have to be overcome."

The advisor notes that sector leadership has transitioned from "being on the verge of breaking down to staging an upside breakout of sorts/" He states, "A sizeable rally in the energy futures inspired a rally to new highs in the energy sector while the financial sector was able to stage a rally to just shy of new all-time highs, despite a sizeable increase in the ten-Year note yield."

Continue reading McMillan's call: IBM and the S&P 500

'Put downs': Bearish bets on GOOG and YHOO

Though he says he remains confident in "some major upside" for the general market, options expert Bernie sees downside risk in two popular high tech plays -- Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). Indeed, as a contrarian, it is their excessive popularity that to a large extent are the basis of his negative outlook.

Schaeffer explains, "Google, the search Goliath has performed well of late, helping to feed the raging optimism toward the Internet firm. The speculative options crowd's optimism is reflected in GOOG's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio, which is lower than roughly two-thirds of those taken during the past 52 weeks."

But the "true measure of extreme bullishness," he notes, comes from the analysts. Zacks reports that GOOG has received 16 'strong buy' rankings, four 'buys,' and one 'hold.' Schaeffer states, "Any change of heart from this bullish bunch could result in a wave of downside pressure the shares may not withstand."

Continue reading 'Put downs': Bearish bets on GOOG and YHOO

Rubbermaid: Set to bounce?

Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL), which is trading near multi-year highs, has caught the attention of contrarian and technician Chris Johnson, money manager and editor of Insightful Investor.

In addition to its Rubbermaid brand, the consumer products firm makes consumer products under names such as Sharpie, Paper Mate, and Lenox.

The advisor is impressed with the stock's relative strength, noting that the shares are up 7.4% for 2007, while the S&P 500 is down slightly. As a contrarian, he notes, "Despite this strong performance, there is a healthy amount of negative sentiment toward the stock, according to a number of indicators."

One sign that the stock is out of favor notes Johnson is its put/call ratio, which he says indicates that the options crowd is extremely pessimistic. In adition, he notes that only 55% of Wall Street analysts who follow the stock rate it a buy. He notes, "That leaves plenty of room for upgrades to move the stock higher."

He expects the stock to continue outperforming the overall market and has added the issue to his portfolio. For those comfortable with the higher risks involved with options, he recommends the June 25 call – with a recent asking price of $6.40.

He explains, "This option provides a sufficient amount of both time and intrinsic value to help weather the market's current volatility. This should help to avoid being shaken out of the position due to the short-term volatility that it may incur."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Top Picks 2007: Option Advisor speculates on options exchange

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ISE) is the top speculative play for 2007 from Bernie Schaeffer, technical trading expert and editor of The Option Advisor. He explains, "ISE is an electronic exchange and the world's largest trading venue for equity options (in terms of volume traded).

"About two years ago, the ISE set a precedent when it became the first U.S. options exchange to debut for public trading. ISE has appeared in the earnings confessional seven times since its trading debut in early 2005. On all of those occasions, the firm has either matched or exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations.

"Since it appeared on the scene, the stock's path of least resistance has pointed higher, although options players remain wedded to the bearish camp. If the stock continues to advance upon new-high territory, a short-covering situation could be in the offing, eliciting an additional source of buying power.

"Analysts are also skeptical; the most recent Zacks information finds that 10 of the 11 brokerages following the stock have named it a 'hold,' leaving one 'strong sell' rating and nary a 'buy' to be found. The skepticism is palpable on this one, making it a solid contrarian play as 2007 kicks off."

To see Bernie's top conservative investment idea for 2007, click here.

Top Picks 2007: Schaeffer sees solid foundation under Lennar

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is the favorite conservative investment for 2007 from Bernie Schaeffer, editor of The Option Advisor. He notes, "Lennar, one of the largest homebuilding firms in the U.S., is built on a very solid foundation.

"For more than 20 quarters running, the stock has exceeded or matched analysts' per-share earnings expectations. Despite negative earnings revisions and poor housing statistics during the past few months, homebuilding stocks have actually rallied from their July 2006 lows.

"For its part, LEN is back up near six-month highs. It has been a relative-strength leader when compared to its peers in the outperforming ISE Homebuilders Index. Meanwhile, options players are firmly entrenched in the bearish camp. And, nearly 9% of the equity's float has been sold short.

"Analysts are still leery of LEN, as evidenced by the latest Zacks data. Of the 12 brokerage firms ranking the shares, five have awarded a 'hold' rating while two list the stock as a 'strong sell.' A continued upward drive in the shares could spur some upgrade activity, drawing positive attention toward the equity."

To see Bernie's favorite speculative idea for 2007, click here.

Black & Decker follow-up -- a few more thoughts

Since posting Keep your eye on Black & Decker last week I have had some discussion among other investors and business associates on-line and off about Black & Decker (BDK). There seems to be a general consensus that it is a solid company with strong fundamentals that has cyclical tendencies. This will be weighing on future earnings and no doubt is reflected in the decline of the stock price and the recent earnings report.

I do not own the stock but have been watching it for several months. It came to my attention through reading various business publications and I thought there was some merit to the positive commentary so I put it on my watch-list $25 dollars ago.

On rare occasion I trade options, (puts or calls), and usually have at least one option outstanding. In my original post I had concluded that BDK may be very close to fair value from all the data I had examined. I was thinking out loud that I may want it $10 cheaper seeking a deep value perhaps around $60 per share so I reviewed CBOE cboe.com/delayedquote/QuoteTable.aspx to get a look at options opportunities.

Since I might be willing to buy shares at $60, could I get paid to do so by selling naked puts (TRADING NAKED PUTS CAN BE VERY HIGH RISK!!) at that strike price. Well two things I learned. First, even with the large 25% decline in stock price of the past few months there was not much money in these options. The second is that there is very little "open interest" at all in doing this trade. There was opportunity at $65, $70 and up, but almost none at $55 & $60. To me this indicates that consensus has developed in the options picture supporting my thesis that we may be at fair value for BDK in the $65 to $70 range in the current market... and that I should keep tracking it for that possible deep value.

BTW, Black & Decker is not a must own stock, nothing is. So I can wait forever, buy something of better value, or do nothing. Patience absolutely pays off.

"You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing." -Warren Buffett

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

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Last updated: December 04, 2008: 06:17 PM

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