Analyst Upgrades

• Home Depot (HD) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Heico (HEI) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• MB Financial (MBFI) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Quest Diagnostics (DGX) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Oshkosh (OSK) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Volterra (VLTR) and Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Cytec Industries (CYT) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Specialty vehicle maker Oshkosh Corp. (OSK), first discussed here on July 6, 2009, at a price of $21.48, has rebounded in the past five months to about $36, after declining in bear-hug fashion in the first half of 2010 to about $24.

And given the roller-coaster pattern, if you're in near $21.48 with OSK, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits.

Analyst Upgrades

• Baird upgraded Oshkosh (OSK) to outperform from neutral, citing valuation as it believes post-Iraq U.S. military spending concerns are overdone. The firm keeps a $42 price target for shares.
• Goldman transferred coverage on CenturyTel (CTL) with a buy from a neutral and has a $42 price target on the stock. The firm believes CenturyTel could increase buybacks and or increase its dividend given free cash generation and low payout ratio.
• Lazard Capital upgraded Hatteras Financial (HTS) to buy from hold to reflect increased dividend projections. The firm has a $30 price target for shares.
• EOG Resources (EOG) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Donaldson (DCI) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Defense firm Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) is wallowing in red ink, after Barron's published a downbeat article on the company over the weekend. After securing a $3 billion, five-year Army contract, the author warns that "Oshkosh may have won the battle but lost the war."

The main thrust of the article appears to be an argument against further price appreciation for OSK, which has "gained 448% over the past 12 months based on a booming military business," according to Barron's. Plus, Tom Harenburg, a longtime investor in the company, adds that profit margins on the Army deal "are meager."

Carter's Inc. (CRI), a retailer of children's apparel, reported Q3 earnings on Friday. The company delivered a nice increase in both sales and net income. It even beat earnings estimates. Yet, the stock is down over 3% as I write this. The market can be funny sometimes, huh?

The top line increased over 10%. Adjusted per-share profit came in at 84 cents. That represented a whopping increase over the adjusted 58 cents per share recorded one year ago. Carter's also experienced a good rise in comparable store sales; the statistic went up over 6%. The OshKosh segment didn't do so well with comps, however.

It goes without saying that, if you're a defense contractor in an equipment sector preferred by the U.S. Department of Defense, you're in the catbird seat. Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE: OSK) is one. Here's why:

In general, analysts see good things ahead for special purpose vehicle manufacturer Oshkosh. Earlier this month, the company won a $1.05 billion contract from the U.S. Army to fund production of 2,224 MRAP all terrain vehicles for the Afghanistan War.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) Q1 profit fell despite strong sales of Plavix and Abilify.
• Check Point Software Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: CHKP) was downgraded based on its guidance.
• Domino's Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) strong Q1 results were boosted by early debt retirement.
• DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) strong Q1 results were driven by Madagascar 2.
• Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ENDP) Q1 results led to an analyst's downgrade.
• E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) widened its Q1 loss, sending shares sharply lower.

Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK - option chain) stock is falling sharply today after the company announced it will suspend its quarterly dividend in order to preserve cash. Previously, OSK was yielding somewhere in the neighborhood of 3% annually. Today, OSK also released an adjusted Q2 loss of 0.24 per share (16.02 unadjusted), which was well worse that the expected 0.15 loss. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on OSK.

This morning, OSK opened at $11.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.01 and a high of $11.37. As of 11:35, OSK is trading at $10.18, down $2.06 (-16.8%). The chart for OSK looks neutral and S&P gives OSK a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Oshkosh Corp (NYSE: OSK - option chain) shares have moved higher today after the Defense Department announced Wednesday after market close that it awarded a $1.1 billion contract to the military division of OSK for work on military trucks. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on OSK.

OSK opened this morning at $9.08. So far today the stock has hit a low of $9.00 and a high of $10.38. As of 1:25, OSK is trading at its daily high of $10.38, up $1.49 (16.7%). The chart for OSK looks neutral and S&P gives OSK a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a February bull-put credit spread below the $7.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just four months as long as OSK is above $7.50 at February expiration. Oshkosh would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

OSK has been below $7.50 as recently as early December, but the stock has been on the rebound since mid-November and has shown support around $7.75 recently before today's jump higher.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in OSK.

Pierce Manufacturing is a member of the family of Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE: OSK), formerly the Oshkosh Truck Corporation. For the second month in a row, Pierce Manufacturing has announced another major equipment building contract.

In October, Pierce Mfg. announced that it had been awarded a $10.7 million contract to provide 68 fire rescue vehicles for the United States Army. This time around, the new contract is not quite as large, but it comes from a first time customer, the city of Phoenix, Arizona. The company issued a news release about this new contract for nine new fire rescue vehicles yesterday.

Representatives for the Phoenix Fire department put the Pierce Quantum pumpers through rigorous testing. The Quantum designation, which refers to the vehicle's chassis design, was met with full approval. The unit proved itself particularly well in regard to the aspects of ride and vehicle control. John Simmons, acting division chief for fleet management of the Phoenix Fire Department, indicated that those features were an important focus for his committee, and that they were duly impressed.

The nine units to be delivered will be customized to serve the Phoenix department's particular needs. The Phoenix Fire Department operates 53 fire stations and protects 1.47 million citizens in our nation's fifth largest city.

Disclosure: My brother is an electronic component installer, employed by Pierce Manufacturing.

The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.

Oshkosh B'Gosh, the well-known children's clothing manufacturer, was founded in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, in 1895. As are most of the cities in Wisconsin's Fox River Valley, Oshkosh was incubated first on the fur trade in the early 1800s, then was built upon the railroads and the lumber industry, and finally, it rests on light and medium manufacturing and the pursuit of higher education and culture. Currently, Oshkosh has a population in the neighborhood of 65,000, and it covers more than 24 square miles.

Oshkosh B'Gosh is probably the best-known namesake of its home city. Though the company's manufacturing operations have been moved away, it still maintains its corporate headquarters there. The company began as a manufacturer of sturdy clothes for working people, most especially its trademark overalls. It wasn't until the mail-order company Miles Kimball featured Oshkosh B'Gosh overalls in one of its catalogs that the company moved its products into retail stores. At that time, Oshkosh B'Gosh expanded its children's clothing line, which would eventually become the company's mainstay.

Two other companies have carried the name Oshkosh to great heights in the business world. One is Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE: OSK), formerly called Oshkosh Truck, and the other was Chief Oshkosh Beer. However, perhaps the most renowned feature of Oshkosh is the yearly Experimental Aircraft Association Airventure air show (EAA). During that annual event, Wittman Regional Airport in Oshkosh, becomes the busiest airport in the world.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to people familiar with the matter, The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) CEO James Cayne is expected to step down, but is expected to remain as chairman, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC), in a bid to diversify as a aerospace and naval contractor, is teaming with Oshkosh Truck Corporation (NYSE: OSK) to bid on a contract to build Humvees for the Army and Marine Corps, reported the Wall Street Journal.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The New York Times reported that court records have shown that troubled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) fabricated documents related to a Pennsylvania homeowner bankruptcy case.
• Alleging that its lending practices discriminated against minorities, leading to foreclosures, the Baltimore City Council is suing Wells Fargo Bank and Company (NYSE: WFC), the New York Times reported.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The truck industry, Roo Group (RGRP), Accuray (ARAY) and TomoTherapy (TTPY) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• In the trucking industry, FTN Midwest initiated shares of Cummins Inc (NYSE: CMI) and Navistar International Corp (NASDAQ: NAVZ) with Hold Ratings and Oshkosh Truck Corp (NYSE: OSK) and PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ: PCAR) with Buy ratings.
• ROO Group (NASDAQ: RGRP) was initiated with a Buy rating and a $3.75 target at Think Equity, which believes RGRP is positioned to capitalize as the Internet continues to grow as a broadcast medium for video.
• Soleil initiated shares of Accuray Inc. (NASDAQ: ARAY) with a Buy rating and $30 target. The company is Soleil's top pick in radiation oncology.
• Soleil also initiated shares of TomoTherapy Inc. (NASDAQ: TTPY) with a Buy rating and $25 target, as the firm believes all-in-one imaging and radiation oncology system in HiArt could become the new standard of care.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Elan Corp (NYSE: ELN) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $40 target at Leerink Swann, which added shares to the firm's Focus List as it is positive on the Tysabri opportunity.
• Cree Inc (NASDAQ: CREE) was initiated with a Buy rating and $50 target at Amtech, as the firm believes the time for LED adoption has finally arrived and will accelerate in the future.
• Nollenberger initiated shares of ZipRealty (NASDAQ: ZIPR) and Move, Inc (NASDAQ: MOVE) with Neutral ratings.
• CIBC World Markets initiated shares of Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) with a Sector Underperformer rating and $38 target, expecting the company to be impacted by increasing competition.
• BMO Capital Markets initiated shares of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) with an Outperform rating and $10 target.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Oshkosh Truck Corporation (NYSE:OSK) makes heavy-payload tactical trucks for the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and has recently acquired Jerr-Dan, the towing equipment manufacturer, from Littlejohn & Co. for a reported $80 million.

Oshkosh truck is currently trading at about $44 and has a recorded 52-week range of $42.10 to $65.69. We'll need to watch carefully how the changes in the way our government does business will affect this company. The company has a very strong history, but as the Bush administration's military industrial machine has taken such a severe hit in this midterm election, we must also consider the effects on "defense contractors."