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Petrobras shares continue to ascend

It goes without saying that the investment strategy advocated here favors integrated oil companies, particularly those with a regional or product advantage. And with the aforementioned in mind, I'm reiterating my buy rating for Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), also known as Petrobras, first recommended on April 22, 2009, at a price of $32.99. If you bought PBR in April, you're up an impressive 47%.

Petrobras remains on-track for 5% to 6% oil/natural gas production growth for FY2009 or about 2.54 million barrels of oil equivalent per day; longer-term, a roughly 7% to 7.5% average annual production increase is seen for 2010 to 2013.

Continue reading Petrobras shares continue to ascend

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ACOR, BHI, HAL, LAZ, SLB, TRV ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • Citigroup upgraded Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) to Buy from Hold on valuation and the company's exposure to a potential upturn in international drilling. The firm raised its target on shares to $80 from $56.
  • UBS upgraded Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $43 from $31 and believes the end of jet engine and other destocking will result in an initial recovery into 2010, even before an order ramp into 2011.
  • Merriman upgraded Acorda Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACOR) to Buy from Neutral based on the favorable FDA panel outcome and set a $30-$33 target range on the stock. Baird upgraded Acorda to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $28 from $24. Following the panel review, Baird expects Amaya to be approved in 1H10 and would be buyers into the mid/high $20s.
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • PG&E (NYSE: PCG) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ACOR, BHI, HAL, LAZ, SLB, TRV ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ANF, BJS, CBE, GENZ, ROK, SI ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • Citigroup upgraded Cooper Industries (NYSE: CBE) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it believes commercial construction concerns are well known. The firm raised its target on shares to $40 from $37, and coupled the upgrade with a downgrade of Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) to Sell from Hold.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded BJ Services (NYSE: BJS) to Neutral from Underperform following its acquisition by Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI). The firm raised its target to $17.
  • Credit Suisse also upgraded Amkor Technology (NASDAQ: AMKR) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $8 from $7. The firm expects Amkor to benefit from near-term strength in the supply chain and the mix shift towards higher value packaging.
  • Textron (NYSE: TXT) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Siemens (NYSE: SI) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
  • Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ANF, BJS, CBE, GENZ, ROK, SI ...

Serious Money: Cheapest place in the world to find oil

Some of you may have heard this before if you have been in the stock market for a long time: The cheapest place to find oil is on the floor of the New York Stock exchange!

With the price of oil moving up faster than the price of oil stocks, and the high cost of exploration and developing new sources, I have been surprised that there have not been any mergers or acquisitions by the major oil companies. I would think now would be a good time to add to their proven reserves with far less risk than looking for new sources.

It also seems to me that the risks associated with exploration and developing new product would be easier to absorb by larger entities.


Continue reading Serious Money: Cheapest place in the world to find oil

Consider Petrobras, because market position matters

It goes without saying that one of the sectors preferred in this space is the integrated oil sector, and when one can combine a demonstrated business model with a dominant market position, that's the equivalent of a baseball doubleheader, which is why Brazil-based Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR), also known as Petrobras, is worth a review.

In general, analysts expect Petrobras' oil and gas production to increase about 2% in 2009. The company has proved reserves of 11.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 14,200 wells, and 5,970 gas stations.

Continue reading Consider Petrobras, because market position matters

Cramer on BloggingStocks: So you missed the recent run -- now what?

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you don't want to wait for a pullback, look abroad for the next leg or find values at home.

What do you do when everyone knows we have come up too far, too fast; no one knows who is actually buying; and we are going into earnings season?

What do you do when the animal spirits are taking up the market and yet other than a handful companies -- Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take), Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX) (Cramer's Take), Corning (NYSE: GLW) (Cramer's Take), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) (Cramer's Take) and Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) (Cramer's Take) -- almost all companies that have spoken during the "off-season" earnings reports have been dismal?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: So you missed the recent run -- now what?

Options Update: Gold and oil companies' volatility decreasing

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) closed at $32.30. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.86% to $50.65 a barrel according to Bloomberg. April option implied volatility is at 69; July is at 66; below its 26-week average of 80, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), the fifth largest gold producer globally, closed at $12.15. Gold is recently down .47% to $954.30 according to Bloomberg. HMY April option implied volatility of 67 is below its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BHP, MRK, LUV, MA, AAUK ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • ING believes BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) will grow through acquisitions and is in a good position relative to peers. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Hold.
  • KeyBanc upgraded Kaman (NASDAQ: KAMN) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, higher foreign 2009 sales, and exposure to the military helicopter market, among other reasons.
  • Merck (NYSE: MRK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of Amerca/Merrill on valuation.
  • J Crew (JCG) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
  • UBS upgraded Expeditors (NASDAQ: EXPD) to Neutral from Sell.
  • CVB Financial (NASDAQ: CVBF) was raised to Hold from Sell at Sandler O'Neill.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) to Equal Weight from Overweight and lowered their target to $25 from $26 based on valuation and high Street estimates given lower oil prices and weaker currency.
  • CIBC downgraded Louisiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) to Sector Performer from Outperformer. The analyst believes LPX may have to issue equity at these depressed levels given the tight credit markets and ongoing cash losses.
  • Calyon downgraded Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) to Sell from Underperform and lowered their target to $7 from $8. The firm recommends taking profits in Southwest due to unit cost challenges given slowing growth and its reduced fuel hedging program.
  • CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein.
  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of Amcore Financial (NASDAQ: AMFI) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Royal Bank of Scotland.
Analyst initiations:
  • Citigroup believes MasterCard (NYSE: MA) is vulnerable to the consumer spending slowdown and expects a more cautious outlook from management when the company reports earnings. Shares were initiated with a Sell rating and $110 target.
  • Janney Montgomery initiated GameStop (NYSE: GME) with a Buy rating and $34.50 target and expects GameStop to benefit from the secular growth in gaming, potential hardware cuts, international expansion, and 2009 title visibility.
  • Jefferies assumed Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) with a Hold rating and $13 target and expects shares to be range-bound until the company shows progress on project execution and margin performance.
  • Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) was initiated at Wunderlich with a Buy rating.
  • Coverage of CME Group (AMEX: CME) was resumed with an Underweight rating at JP Morgan.
  • Shanda (NASDAQ: SNDA) was initiated with a Hold rating and $30 target at Roth Capital.

Options Update: Major oil producers volatility up as oil collapses to $34; PBR, XOM, CVX, COP

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), a Brazilian oil conglomerate, closed at $23.07. Crude oil futures are recently down 6.10% to $34.01 a barrel according to Bloomberg. PBR January option implied volatility of 87 is above its 26-week average of 73, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) closed at $77. XOM January option implied volatility of 52 is above its 26-week average of 33, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) closed at $73.03. CVX January option implied volatility of 60 is above its 26-week average of 47, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed at 51.54. COP January option implied volatility of 66 is above its 26-week average of 51, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Closing Bell: Dow ends down after rate cut; AAPL, GM, PBR, CMCSA

The Federal Reserve cut rates to 1% as expected. For more than an hour after the news, the markets traded flat. With no apparent reason, stocks rocketed up in the last hour-and-a-half of trading and then died at the close. A lot of work for nothing.

The numbers:
DJIA: 8,990.96 down 0.74%
Nasdaq: 1,657.21 up 0.47%
S&P 500 930.01 down 1.11%

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) surged over 9% to $109 on a rumor from research firm Bernstein that the company might buy-back as much as $20 billion of its stock. Even if the comments have no basis in fact, it helped the stock move more than most of its earnings announcements do.

GM (NYSE: GM) moved up almost 10% to $6.90 on press reports that all major issues it needed to negotiate with Chrysler owner Cerberus before the companies could merge had been decided. The fact that GM does not have the capital to make the marriage work did not seem to matter to investors.

Oil moved up almost 7% for the day and the rally in crude plus an analyst upgrade moved Latin American oil giant Petroleo Brasilero (NYSE: PBR) up 12% to $25.22.

The nation's largest cable company, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) put up impressive numbers for the third quarter, but Wall Street was not happy with its forecast and pushed the firm's share down by over 6% to $15.88.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Option Update: Disney volatility elevated; shares near 30-month low

Disney (NYSE: DIS) closed at $28.26 Monday. DIS is expected to report Q4 EPS in early November. DIS November option implied volatility of 54 is above it 26-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) closed at $70.10 Monday. WHR is scheduled to report Q3 EPS in late October. WHR overall option implied volatility of 83 is above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) closed at $34.20 Monday. Crude oil futures are recently up 3.89% to $91.23 according to Bloomberg. PBR October option implied volatility is at 167; November is at 127; above its 26-week average of 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Closing Bell: Market slides on grim economic news, bailout jitters; GE, IBM, PBR, MOS, NBR all down

This was another sell-off trading day. Any hopes for a late day rally were met with disappointment. The markets are digesting worse and worse economic news and earnings warnings, and all eyes are watching the House of Representatives tomorrow over the bailout vote. We used a prediction market, and today the bets are still that some bailout bill passes before October 31. The common theme among most stock groups today was easy: selling.

These are today's unofficial closing bell levels, and be advised that official closing bell prints have been coming later and later this week:
DJIA 10,474.41 -356.66 -3.29%
S&P500 1,113.80 -47.26 -4.07%
NASDAQ 1,976.72 -92.68 -4.48%
10YR T-Bond 3.646% (-0.122%)

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was down today with shares down in the last hour after the massive offering. Its secondary raised $12 billion after pricing its secondary at $22.25. Shares were down almost 10% at $22.13 in today's final minutes.

Petro Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), or Petrobras, was pounded after Citi took it off the Latin American Focus List. Shares were down over 12% at $38.08 in today's final trading minutes.

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) was down over 5.5% at $103.82 today in the final minutes of the day on concerns and continued rumors that the company was likely to miss its earnings expectations.

Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was thrown out with the baby and bathwater today after the company's earnings were short of estimates and over comments about a slowdown in production. Shares were down almost 40% at $41.00 in the final minutes today.

Nabors Industrial (NYSE:NBR) proved that it isn't immune from the market even as an oil company. It also warned on earnings. Shares were down over 8% at $22.00 in today's final minutes of trading.

Stock picks and pans for troubled times: Buy Johnson & Johnson, Monsanto, JPMorgan and closed-end funds

Another volatile week had passed over Wall Street, but by the end of it investors started breathing a sigh of relief in anticipation of the bailout plan. Those hopes were shattered Thursday night. Many believe that if the bailout plan doesn't get approved soon, the landscape on Wall Street will be very different, changing even more than it already has. The consequences of a financial meltdown would reverberate throughout the economy, here and globally.

Once again, BloggingStocks bloggers have looked at different stocks, trying to find the ones you may want to consider during these troubled times should you find yourself with some extra cash. Nerves of steel are a requirement for any investor these days.

Here are some picks from the past week:

Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) - not only do Ron Rowland and Brandon Clay remind us that Johnson and Johnson was rated the world's most respected company, Cramer says that JNJ "is a super stock. Well managed, great earnings, good pipeline ..."

Monsanto (NYSE: MON) - as the undisputed leader in the genetically modified (GM) seed industry, Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad think long-term-oriented investors will be rewarded handsomely with Monsanto.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) - Joe Lazzaro thinks these banks' sizes may be what would save them as the they are simply too big to fail. Cramer agrees both banks stand to gain much and will do very well if the bailout is approved. With the recent acquisition of Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM), Jon Berr thinks John Pierpont Morgan would have been proud of Jamie Dimon.

Continue reading Stock picks and pans for troubled times: Buy Johnson & Johnson, Monsanto, JPMorgan and closed-end funds

Brazilian drilling with Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)

"Crude oil remains deeply oversold on an intermediate-term basis, suggesting a rally sometime in the early fall," says Dennis Slothower.

The editor of Stealth Stocks looks to Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR) as his latest "stock of the month." Here's his review of the Brazilian firm that is now the world's 8th-largest oil company.

"The founding of Petrobras was authorized in October 1953, with the objective of executing, on behalf of the federal government, the activities of the oil sector in Brazil.

"Over the past five decades or so, the company has become the country's leader in the distribution of oil products, an activity not covered by the government monopoly, and today it is internationally acknowledged as the eighth-largest oil company in the world.

"Leading the sector in the development of one of the most advanced deepwater and ultra-deepwater technologies for oil production, PBR was twice (in 1992 and 2001) awarded the Offshore Technology Company (OTC) prize, the most important award in the sector.

Continue reading Brazilian drilling with Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)

Before the bell: Futures drastically lower; LEH, WM, C, NYT, PBR, GM, AAPL ...

U.S. stock futures were much lower Thursday, indicating a tough start for Wall Street today -- the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Investors sentiment was mired by concerns over the financial sector as Lehman and WaMu continue to have difficulties and braced themselves for a slew of economic reports including weekly initial claims, trade deficit for July and inflation figures for international trade for August. Meanwhile, oil declined as Saudi Arabia broke ranks on OPEC.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) tried to calm investors Wednesday when it presented its rescue plan including the sale of its investment arm. But investors don't seem convinced and are frustrated with the company and its CEO, the longest serving CEO on Wall Street. Too much planning and intent, not enough action. After plunging 45% Tuesday, LEH stock was down another 7% or so Wednesday to $7.25 on Wednesday. They are shedding another 14.5% in pre-market trading at 7:32 am.
[Update 9:00 a.m.: Following the several downgrades, Lehman shares are plunging over 40% in pre-market trading. Stock futures are drastically lower as well, indicating stock will likely open much lower.]

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) shares have been sharing the same fate as Lehman's lately, as they plunged to their lowest point in nearly two decades Wednesday, diving 29.7% to close at $2.32 - a 17-year low. As of 7:33 a.m., shares are declining another 2.6% in pre-market trading. WaMu is expected to have losses in its mortgage portfolio expected of $19 billion, and some believe it could be Wall Street's next casualty.

And as if that wasn't enough, The Wall Street Journal reports that there will be hearings on alleged tax shelters provided to hedge funds by investment banks including Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER).

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures drastically lower; LEH, WM, C, NYT, PBR, GM, AAPL ...

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DJIA+203.5210,226.94
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S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 02:56 AM

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