The Federal Reserve cut rates to 1% as expected. For more than an hour after the news, the markets traded flat. With no apparent reason, stocks rocketed up in the last hour-and-a-half of trading and then died at the close. A lot of work for nothing.
The numbers: DJIA: 8,990.96 down 0.74% Nasdaq: 1,657.21 up 0.47% S&P 500 930.01 down 1.11%
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) surged over 9% to $109 on a rumor from research firm Bernstein that the company might buy-back as much as $20 billion of its stock. Even if the comments have no basis in fact, it helped the stock move more than most of its earnings announcements do.
GM (NYSE: GM) moved up almost 10% to $6.90 on press reports that all major issues it needed to negotiate with Chrysler owner Cerberus before the companies could merge had been decided. The fact that GM does not have the capital to make the marriage work did not seem to matter to investors.
Oil moved up almost 7% for the day and the rally in crude plus an analyst upgrade moved Latin American oil giant Petroleo Brasilero (NYSE: PBR) up 12% to $25.22.
The nation's largest cable company, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) put up impressive numbers for the third quarter, but Wall Street was not happy with its forecast and pushed the firm's share down by over 6% to $15.88.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Disney (NYSE: DIS) closed at $28.26 Monday. DIS is expected to report Q4 EPS in early November. DIS November option implied volatility of 54 is above it 26-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.
Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) closed at $70.10 Monday. WHR is scheduled to report Q3 EPS in late October. WHR overall option implied volatility of 83 is above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) closed at $34.20 Monday. Crude oil futures are recently up 3.89% to $91.23 according to Bloomberg. PBR October option implied volatility is at 167; November is at 127; above its 26-week average of 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
This was another sell-off trading day. Any hopes for a late day rally were met with disappointment. The markets are digesting worse and worse economic news and earnings warnings, and all eyes are watching the House of Representatives tomorrow over the bailout vote. We used a prediction market, and today the bets are still that some bailout bill passes before October 31. The common theme among most stock groups today was easy: selling.
These are today's unofficial closing bell levels, and be advised that official closing bell prints have been coming later and later this week: DJIA 10,474.41 -356.66 -3.29% S&P500 1,113.80 -47.26 -4.07% NASDAQ 1,976.72 -92.68 -4.48% 10YR T-Bond 3.646% (-0.122%)
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was down today with shares down in the last hour after the massive offering. Its secondary raised $12 billion after pricing its secondary at $22.25. Shares were down almost 10% at $22.13 in today's final minutes.
Petro Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), or Petrobras, was pounded after Citi took it off the Latin American Focus List. Shares were down over 12% at $38.08 in today's final trading minutes.
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) was down over 5.5% at $103.82 today in the final minutes of the day on concerns and continued rumors that the company was likely to miss its earnings expectations.
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was thrown out with the baby and bathwater today after the company's earnings were short of estimates and over comments about a slowdown in production. Shares were down almost 40% at $41.00 in the final minutes today.
Nabors Industrial (NYSE:NBR) proved that it isn't immune from the market even as an oil company. It also warned on earnings. Shares were down over 8% at $22.00 in today's final minutes of trading.
Another volatile week had passed over Wall Street, but by the end of it investors started breathing a sigh of relief in anticipation of the bailout plan. Those hopes were shattered Thursday night. Many believe that if the bailout plan doesn't get approved soon, the landscape on Wall Street will be very different, changing even more than it already has. The consequences of a financial meltdown would reverberate throughout the economy, here and globally.
Once again, BloggingStocks bloggers have looked at different stocks, trying to find the ones you may want to consider during these troubled times should you find yourself with some extra cash. Nerves of steel are a requirement for any investor these days.
Here are some picks from the past week:
Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) - not only do Ron Rowland and Brandon Clay remind us that Johnson and Johnson was rated the world's most respected company, Cramer says that JNJ "is a super stock. Well managed, great earnings, good pipeline ..."
Monsanto (NYSE: MON) - as the undisputed leader in the genetically modified (GM) seed industry, Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad think long-term-oriented investors will be rewarded handsomely with Monsanto.
"Crude oil remains deeply oversold on an intermediate-term basis, suggesting a rally sometime in the early fall," says Dennis Slothower.
The editor of Stealth Stocks looks to Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR) as his latest "stock of the month." Here's his review of the Brazilian firm that is now the world's 8th-largest oil company.
"The founding of Petrobras was authorized in October 1953, with the objective of executing, on behalf of the federal government, the activities of the oil sector in Brazil.
"Over the past five decades or so, the company has become the country's leader in the distribution of oil products, an activity not covered by the government monopoly, and today it is internationally acknowledged as the eighth-largest oil company in the world.
"Leading the sector in the development of one of the most advanced deepwater and ultra-deepwater technologies for oil production, PBR was twice (in 1992 and 2001) awarded the Offshore Technology Company (OTC) prize, the most important award in the sector.
U.S. stock futures were much lower Thursday, indicating a tough start for Wall Street today -- the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Investors sentiment was mired by concerns over the financial sector as Lehman and WaMu continue to have difficulties and braced themselves for a slew of economic reports including weekly initial claims, trade deficit for July and inflation figures for international trade for August. Meanwhile, oil declined as Saudi Arabia broke ranks on OPEC.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) tried to calm investors Wednesday when it presented its rescue plan including the sale of its investment arm. But investors don't seem convinced and are frustrated with the company and its CEO, the longest serving CEO on Wall Street. Too much planning and intent, not enough action. After plunging 45% Tuesday, LEH stock was down another 7% or so Wednesday to $7.25 on Wednesday. They are shedding another 14.5% in pre-market trading at 7:32 am. [Update 9:00 a.m.: Following the several downgrades, Lehman shares are plunging over 40% in pre-market trading. Stock futures are drastically lower as well, indicating stock will likely open much lower.]
Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) shares have been sharing the same fate as Lehman's lately, as they plunged to their lowest point in nearly two decades Wednesday, diving 29.7% to close at $2.32 - a 17-year low. As of 7:33 a.m., shares are declining another 2.6% in pre-market trading. WaMu is expected to have losses in its mortgage portfolio expected of $19 billion, and some believe it could be Wall Street's next casualty.
And as if that wasn't enough, The Wall Street Journalreports that there will be hearings on alleged tax shelters provided to hedge funds by investment banks including Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER).
The energy debate rages on as oil and gas futures bounce around with 30% corrections. Which side of the energy debate are you on? Bears say that oil and gas prices are coming back down to earth. Speculators and hedge funds bid them up, global demand is slowing and alternative forms of energy will soon replace the fossil fuels we've come to depend upon. Bulls argue that oil and gas supplies are dwindling at the same time that the emerging market economies (China, India, Brazil and 20 others) need more. As their middle class population builds they too will want cars, air conditioning and electricity and demand will increase. Most oil reserves are in countries with unstable governments and when geopolitical events get ugly, prices tend to skyrocket.
I'm a long term energy bull -- 10% of my money has been in energy stocks for the last several years and today I maintain that allocation for two reasons. First, I believe in five years, oil and gas prices will be higher than they are today. Second, owning energy is a great hedge against other asset classes like stocks, the US dollar, and inflation.
No one knows which way energy prices will go next week or month so I continually rebalance my portfolio. As my energy stocks rise, I trim them and when they fall, I add to them. If my portfolio goes to 12% energy, I sell them back down to 10% and vice versa.
Now comes the easiest part – which stocks do I pick? Easy you say? Yes – because I don't worry about stock picking due to a miraculous new invention I'll discuss below. I own three energy stocks: the U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index (NYSE:IEO), the U.S. Oil Equipment & Services Index(NYSE:IEZ), and S&P Global Energy (NYSE:IXC). Through these three stocks, I own about 200 energy stocks in precise allocation percentages to parts of the energy sector, weighted according to my own preferences – 60% is in IEO, 30% is in IEZ and 10% is in IXC. Why pick stocks when I can own them all? Here's what I mean.
"In general, investors are still seeing selloffs as buying opportunities even though the majority of stocks are in a bear market. We are not sure how long this can continue.
"Our 'Crazy Investor Index' does not yet show the type of extreme fear that is typical at a bottom, so it will probably mill around in short-term rallies and selloffs until something motivates them to panic simultaneously.
"In the meantime, we prefer to buy excellent companies just as the herd decides to stampede. And while our portfolio is now slightly net short we are adding one new long position: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., often referred to as Petrobras.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: SuccessFactors, Taleo and Penn National were today's noteworthy initiations:
Oppenheimer initiated SuccessFactors Inc (NASDAQ: SFSF) with an Outperform rating and $15 target. The firm believes the company's double-digit revenue growth will continue as its differentiated HCM solutions gain broad-based adoption. Deutsche Bank believes the company has a strong opportunity to build a highly profitable business as it broadens its footprint, and started shares with a Buy rating and $15 target.
Deutsche Bank also reinstated coverage of Taleo Corporation (NASDAQ: TLEO) with a Buy rating and $35 target. The firm believes the Vurv acquisition will create significant accretion in 2009 and that investors should take advantage of the recent share weakness.
Oppenheimer assumed coverage of Penn National Gaming Inc (NASDAQ: PENN) with an Outperform rating and believes the termination of Penn's acquisition by Fortress Investment and Centerbridge will be catalysts for the stock, as they think it provides the company with financial flexibility. In addition, the firm believes Penn's management team has historically made prudent capital decisions.
Readers of this space know that one argument I forward here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, barring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Petroleo Brasileiro is worth a review.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) is Brazil's largest industrial operation, with oil/gas production, refining and purchasing businesses, and oil/gas transport services.
(Note: Petroleo's shares split 2-for-1 in May 2008.)
Analysts really like PBR's proved reserves of 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 12,900 wells, 16 refineries, 31,000 kilometers of pipeline, and astounding 5,870 gasoline stations. Further, analysts see 2008 production rising about 11-14%. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for PBR are $4.91/$5.03.
The risks? Analysts have their eye on PBR's operating costs. Also, PBR's concentration in Brazil means a downturn in that country's economy will hurt results.
Stock Analysis: Petroleo Brasileiro is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from PBR's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $78.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
Today was a coin toss going into the FOMC meeting, and even after the meeting. The market could have gone either way today when the Federal Reserve said it is hoping inflation to come down later in the year and that it isn't that hawkish on inflation versus growth. Traders took the stance that rates will not be running rampantly higher by the end of summer. The other news on the economic front didn't inspire much either, as new home sales and prices in may continued their decline. Oil prices fell at one point more than $4.00 per barrel after an increase in inventory levels.
Below are the unofficial closing levels for today:
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) saw a rise despite the short selling interest with bets against the company having risen by more than 100% to 48.4+ million shares as of June 13. Shares were up 1.3% at $46.98 in today's final minutes.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the oil powwow won't solve anything, but it will give you an opening in the stocks.
Today we learn that "dozens of world leaders and executives" are going to Saudi Arabia to find out how to lower oil prices this weekend.
Yep, there we go. Short the oil futures. They will no doubt come up with a plan that will produce much more oil and curtail its use, bringing oil down sharply -- perhaps to $100.
Yeah, right.
Weak dollar, speculators, funds indexed to commodities, intransigent Saudi Arabians, terrorist activities.
I believe that all of those factors combined have lifted oil by about $20. But that could be overstating things -- it's no more than that.
Because if there was a lot of oil, you would see those futures smacked down to levels where all sort of cockamamie ideas for oil alternatives would disappear. Right now, with oil at $130, we could produce an alternative from oil shale that would be bountiful and that has been the spare capacity that can be brought on in the next four years.
Oil driller Transocean, Inc. (NYSE: RIG), whose shares have probed, but have been unable to move and stay permanently above $160 -- may have received the catalyst it needs to reach loftier price levels.
Transocean's shares jumped $8.34, ending at $155.54 after Bloomberg News reported that Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), Brasil's state-controlled oil company, leased about 80% percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects. That included the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades, the Tupi field. Further, the activity of Petroleo, also known as Petrobras, is forcing up day-rates for oil rigs. PBR also closed higher Thursday, up $2.00 to $68.27.
Further, Petrobras is in talks with Transocean to extend leases as much as three years ahead of expiration, Robert Long, chief executive officer for the Houston-based RIG, told Bloomberg News. Also, Petrobras plans to start pumping oil from Tupi in Q1 2009. Tupi is the largest oil find in North America since the 1976 Cantarelli field discovery in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Federal Reserve cut rates to 1% as expected. For more than an hour after the news, the markets traded flat. With no apparent reason, stocks rocketed up in the last hour-and-a-half of trading and then died at the close. A lot of work for nothing.
Another volatile week had passed over Wall Street, but by the end of it investors started breathing a sigh of relief in anticipation of the bailout plan. Those hopes were shattered Thursday night. Many believe that if the bailout plan doesn't get approved soon, the landscape on Wall Street will be very different, changing even more than it already has. The consequences of a financial meltdown would reverberate throughout the economy, here and globally.
The energy debate rages on as oil and gas futures bounce around with 30% corrections. Which side of the energy debate are you on? Bears say that oil and gas prices are coming back down to earth. Speculators and hedge funds bid them up, global demand is slowing and alternative forms of energy will soon replace the fossil fuels we've come to depend upon. Bulls argue that oil and gas supplies are dwindling at the same time that the emerging market economies (China, India, Brazil and 20 others) need more. As their middle class population builds they too will want cars, air conditioning and electricity and demand will increase. Most oil reserves are in countries with unstable governments and when geopolitical events get ugly, prices tend to skyrocket. 
.gif){kind=logo}
Petrobras.gif){kind=logo}
Best & Worst in Money 2008: Most shocking financial collapse
Closing Bell: Stocks slump as AMD, AT&T, GM and Merck decline
Global Q&A: A rocky road, but profits ahead
