The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.
Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Daimler (NYSE: DAI) to Neutral from Buy, according toMarketWatch.
Citigroup downgraded Genentech (NYSE: DNA) to Hold from Buy, according toBriefing.com. The news service also writes that UBS downgraded Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to Hold from Buy.
Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) was raised to Buy at Citigroup, according toBriefing.com. The financial site also reports that Harman (NYSE: HAR) was cut to Neutral at Baird.
Despite the fact that the markets were lower much of the day, they eventually managed to on the session higher. This was a win considering that profit takers and short sellers weren't able to hammer down the market after such large gains Tuesday. Oil fell again to levels under $119.00.
EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) shares were down under 1% right before the close today, although they had been down 5% after some rumors that Cisco was interested in the company were put to sleep.
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is continuing to see options speculation build in the stock. Shares were mostly flat today, but options volume was huge again and is up 10% in seven trading sessions.
The shares of Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: OWW) are skidding all over the charts today following the company's second-quarter earnings release. Orbitz confessed to a net loss of $5 million, or six cents per share, much improved from its year-ago loss of $32 million. Revenue for the recently concluded quarter inched 1% higher to $231 million.
While the results were better than the same quarter in 2007, analysts were looking for an even smaller loss of three cents per share on more robust revenue of $234 million.
Gross bookings increased 4% to $3 billion, thanks to a little help from overseas -- international bookings rocketed 41% higher, compared to a 1% slump in domestic bookings. Orbitz's international business now accounts for 23% of its revenue, up three percentage points from the year prior.
Despite the challenges facing Orbitz, president and CEO Steven Barnhart professed his enthusiasm about some new initiatives to drive growth. Specifically, the travel firm is launching a new "Price Assurance" functionality, and the company just entered a multi-year partnership with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to serve as the online provider for MSN.com's travel portals. Barnhart said these initiatives "will accelerate our domestic growth in the second half of the year and help offset any impact from current economic and travel industry uncertainty."
U.S. stock futures were mixed Wednesday morning after Tuesday's big rally. Bigger-than-expected losses at mortgage lender Freddie Mac, which caused it to cut dividends, as well as lower profit at Time Warner dampened mood on Wall Street. Meanwhile, oil held above $119 ahead of inventory report later today, but crude futures were slightly higher.
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, posted a larger fourth-quarter loss of $821 million, or $1.63 a share, than analysts estimated as delinquencies rose and cut its dividend to shore up capital. The common-share dividend will be reduced to 5 cents from 25 cents. Bloomberg writes that CEO Syron is "seeking to bolster capital and restore confidence after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was forced to step in with a rescue plan for Freddie and the larger Fannie Mae." So, first, I doubt investors have much confidence in Syron after reports surfaced he ignored warnings. Second, is Wall Street really surprised the mortgage buyer disappointed? That its credit-related expenses doubled from the previous quarter? Haven't we been there before? FRE shares are down 8.7% in premarket trading at last check.
Meanwhile, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) also reported this morning, saying second-quarter earnings fell 26% to $792 million, or 22 cents per share (24 cents on adjusted basis), on declining subscriber fees at its AOL online unit and lower ad revenue at the Time publishing business. Revenue was 5% higher at $11.6 billion. Thomson Financial says analysts expected profit of 23 cents per share on revenue of $11.46 billion. TWX affirmed its full-year financial targets after revenue rose at its film, cable and networks segments.
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) posted a second-quarter loss of $344 million, or 12 cents a share, as revenue fell to $9.06 billion. But the No. 3 U.S. mobile service lost fewer subscribers than expected. The results beat earnings estimates but missed on revenue. Sprint shares are trading over 6% lower in premarket action.
With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Schiff Nutrition, Siemens and Priceline.com were today's noteworthy initiations:
B. Riley assumed Schiff Nutrition (NYSE:WNI) with a Buy rating and $7.75 target. The firm believes downside is limited given the company's balance sheet and cash flows and sees opportunity for market share gains.
Morgan Stanley initiated Siemens (NYSE:SI) with an Overweight rating and is positive on the company's revenue diversification and planned headcount reductions.
Stanford believes Priceline.com (NASDAQ:PCLN) is positioned to benefit as consumers shift to the Internet and the company's bargain prices to make travel plans. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $140 target.
After hitting a one-year low of $59.50 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $144.34 in May. This morning, PCLN opened at $119.78. So far today the stock has hit a low of $114.38 and a high of $121.95. As of 12:10, PCLN is trading at $117.95, down $7.18 (-5.7%). The chart for PCLN looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $155 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in seven weeks as long as PCLN is below $155 at August expiration. PCLN would have to rise by more than 32% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
PCLN hasn't been above $145 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $132 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in early August) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance PCLN might find around $140, where it topped out in May.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in PCLN or EXPE.
Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) is an online travel agency. It offers a range of services, including airline tickets, hotel rooms, car rentals, vacation packages and cruises, as well as destination and travel insurance services. The company operates a Name Your Own Price system, which allows users to make offers for travel services at prices they set. It also markets fixed-price travel products and offers various online financial services. Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) is a major competitor.
The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported Q1 EPS of 76 cents and revenues of $403.20 million. Analysts had been expecting 60 cents and $377.17 million. Gross travel bookings increased 76% yr/yr, a result above company guidance of 60-65%. Pro forma gross profit rose 74.7% yr/yr, versus guidance of 55-60%. Management predicted FY08 EPS of $5.25-$5.65 ($5.12 consensus).
Bank of America downgraded GAP (NYSE:GPS) to "neutral" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup has downgraded Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) to "hold" from "buy"
RBC Capital Markets said that sales at Digital River (NASDAQ:DRIV) were above its estimates and kept its "outperform" rating on the stock, according to the AP.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: GTX Inc, Akeena Solar and NexMed were today's noteworthy initiations:
Rodman & Renshaw is positive on GTX Inc's (NASDAQ: GTXI) opportunity for Acapodene in prostate cancer and Ostarine for muscle wasting. The firm started shares with an Outperform rating and $22 target.
Akeena Solar (NASDAQ: AKNS) was initiated with a Buy rating at Merriman. The firm believes the company is positioned to generate a high margin recurring revenue stream through the licensing of its Andalay proprietary rack mounting system.
Roth Capital expects NexMed's (NASDAQ: NEXM) Phase III data for its antifungal Lamisil, expected in mid-2008, to be positive. The firm, which started NexMed with a Buy rating and $2.50 target, said early clinical data demonstrated a roughly 7-8X improvement in fungal reductions versus the competitive topical formulation sold as Penlac. The analyst said Phase III trial will admittedly have a different end point, but this data makes them bullish.
priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) shares are trading higher after the company announced on Friday that it has agreed to a one-year partnership with Chinese classified information search engine Kooxoo.com. Under the deal, PCLN will gain data access to over 8,000 hotels in China, which could give it a leg up in international bookings over competitors Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) and Orbitz (NYSE: OWW). If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on PCLN.
After hitting a one-year low of $52.00 last March, the stock hit a one-year high of $129.24 in February. PCLN opened this morning at $119.48. So far today the stock has hit a low of $119.04 and a high of $128.75. As of 12:30, PCLN is trading at $127.87, up $9.24 (7.8%). The chart for PCLN looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock its lowest 1 Star (out of 5) strong sell rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $70 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 6.4% return in just four months as long as PCLN is above $70 at July expiration. Priceline would have to fall by more than 46% before we would start to lose money.
PCLN hasn't been below $70 since August and has shown support around $110 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy gets even weaker in the coming months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find just above $90 from its 200 day moving average.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in PCLN, EXPE, or OWW.
While I believe much of the price action in the most actively traded technology stocks to be rather unpredictable, there are specific price points at which the odds can be in your favor. Because so many traders believe in chart reading, or technical analysis, the price action often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy (as I've written about here). So, let's take a look at some popular names with traders:
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), after a big drop, has already put in solid sideways price action and if it can break $140, there looks to be a rather clear path to $160.
Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ: RIMM) has weathered this storm incredibly well, putting in a solid double bottom in the low $80s and more recently, holding the key $100 level. There's still resistance at both $110 and $120, so a big breakout doesn't seem likely anytime soon.
Priceline.com Inc (NASDAQ: PCLN) is still in the midst of a strong yearlong uptrend, a mere $10 off its highs. On any market rebound, I fully expect this stock to break out to new highs.
The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Despite the fact that the markets were lower much of the day, they eventually managed to on the session higher. This was a win considering that profit takers and short sellers weren't able to hammer down the market after such large gains Tuesday. Oil fell again to levels under $119.00. 
U.S. stock futures were mixed Wednesday morning after Tuesday's big rally. Bigger-than-expected losses at mortgage lender Freddie Mac, which caused it to cut dividends, as well as lower profit at Time Warner dampened mood on Wall Street. Meanwhile, oil held above $119 ahead of inventory report later today, but crude futures were slightly higher..gif){kind=logo}
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While I believe much of the price action in the most actively traded technology stocks to be rather unpredictable, there are specific price points at which the odds can be in your favor. Because so many traders believe in chart reading, or technical analysis, the price action often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy (as I've written about 
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