Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. In general, turnaround and business model change plays are avoided, but there are exceptions to the rule, and one is Corning.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), once a reliable but slow-growth kitchenware and cookware company, today represents one of the signature corporate transformation stories of the digital age.
Corning is one of the leading providers of fiber-optic cable, which the company invented more than 30 years ago. Further, its substrates business did not draw Wall Street's attention until technological advances enabled the price-competitive production of flat panel displays in flat panel televisions, desktop monitors and notebook computers.
When Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) releases quarterly results Thursday how will it do? Dell has managed to quickly enter the consumer retailer market, which has helped it stave off the more valiant Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) from running away with just about ever retailer PC sale these days. But investors are bound to say, "that was yesterday -- what have you done for me today?"
Analysts are expecting the company to report earnings of 33 cents per share on revenue of $15.66 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. Although Dell announced a $1 billion share buyback plan just a few months ago, it needs to all it can to not let its stock price implode. The growth may be over (permanently), and the brand may not be the premier name it once was. Add that to the fact that the competition (most notably H-P) enjoys every cost savings Dell once did, and the picture become way less rosy.
Does Dell have any angles left? From a fundamental PC selling standpoint, it's hard to make that argument. In terms of Micheal Dell's famous comment that Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) should be sold off in pieces and money returned to shareholders. My, my how the tables have turned. Still, Dell is not going anywhere fast and its stock price could be languishing in the dust for quite some time.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
Going by ad campaigns alone, you would think that every person -- or, at least every cool person -- had abandoned their Windows PCs and hoisted themselves onto the Macintosh bandwagon. Not so. The truth is that PCs far outnumber Macs in the market. The big-business worlds of finance, law, medicine use predominantly PC, while the areas of video production, web design and art use Mac. These computers do most of the same things (play games and DVDs, word-process, create web pages, store and play music) but they are completely different operating systems. Even though Apple computers now include the Intel processor that makes it possible to use Windows-only applications, it can still be hard to compare products.
But what about the companies themselves? What does the Apple brand signify that the Dell brand does not? And vice versa.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL): Providing innovative products and a user-friendly interface, Apple has turned the whole computer thing into a fashion accessory. For someone who used Dell products for years and then switched to Mac, the difference is like night and day. A Mac is so easy to use. With a clean interface, a near-universal compatibility with external products and tools, these computers are a beautiful breeze. And now that Macs include Intel processors, one can switch back and forth between a Windows interface and a Mac interface, making previous incompatibilities (software, games, etc.) now perfectly compatible. And when it comes to customer service (see below) Apple really socks the house.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Intel is worth an evaluation.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is the world's largest semiconductor maker, as measured by revenue and unit shipments, and is the dominant microprocessor manufacturer for personal computers.
In general, analysts expect F2008 revenue to increase 5-7%, after an 8% increase in F2007. The conventional wisdom in semiconductor analysis land now suggests that smaller/more-portable computer forms and media-rich PDAs will drive strong PC and PDA microprocessor sales.
Further, Intel remains the leader in next-generation chip technology, and its product mix remains superior. Gross margins should increase, as a result of lower unit costs and improved plant utilization. Also, high-performance chip prices should increase noticeably.
Once thought to be extremely safe, action rate securities have proved difficult to sell in this credit crisis. Tech companies are big holders of them and are taking charges left and right, including MetroPCS Communications Inc (NYSE: PCS), Palm Inc (NASDAQ: PALM) and Earthlink Inc (NASDAQ: ELNK), according to the Wall Street Journal.
NYSE Euronext Inc (NYSE: NYX) will look to increase its stakes in India's National Stock Exchange and the country's Multi Commodity Exchange, the Business Standard reported, once foreign ownership rules are eased. NYSE Euronext also intends to partner with the two Indian exchanges in order to help them develop their business.
WEB SITES:
Business Week reported that Brian Marckx of Zacks Investment Research said Bristol Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) may be an attractive takeover candidate for a larger pharma such as Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) or France's Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE: SNY), both of which have been partners with Bristol on some of its products.
Big China PC company Lenovo did something that Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) won't. According toReuters, it "beat expectations by nearly tripling quarterly earnings, riding strong demand for PCs in Asia."
Lenovo would like to get into the business of selling more PCs in the US, but it may be lucky that it does not have too much exposure here. The company gets about 40% of its revenue from China.
The news is a reminder that US PC companies may have a hard time this year. While they sell PCs overseas, they do not have a dominant position in the world's most populated country. In the US and Europe they are up against a resurgent Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and products from Taiwan PC company Acer.
Lenovo may do well this year. US PC companies are another matter.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) wants to sell PCs at retail outlets, but it does not want to take away some of the customers who buy its products on the internet. And the company can't have it both ways.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "As Dell broadens from just selling its wares directly over the internet and by phone, it risks siphoning off its web customers, who represent the majority of its consumer sales."
Taking such a gradual approach may hurt the company. Most of Dell's competitors, including HP (NYSE: HPQ) and Lenovo, offer a very broad set of products through most consumer electronics retailers. Even Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) now sells though some large stores.
Since Dell is losing market share to most of the other large PC manufacturers, its philosophy of holding back some of its product line is puzzling. HP is now the leading vendor of computers in the U.S., and recent research shows that Apple is picking up substantial market share.
Trying to decide which products will be offered to consumers at retail and which will be seen only on Dell's website seems to be a complex formula that may only result in lower sales.
The consumer wants what he wants when he wants it. Making it harder for him to buy is a bad idea.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Lenovo, the Chinese PC company, is known for producing good laptops for businesses. But with Mac sales moving up sharply, going after Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) seems too hard to resist.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "As with many of its competitors, Lenovo is emphasizing design and style, and trying to turn notebooks into fashion accessories that reflect individual personality." Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and HP (NYSE: HPQ) are also coming out with fancy, feature-full PCs.
The problem, of course, is that the field for Mac-like computers will become crowded very quickly. That leads to the question of whether the PCs will be able to get some market share from the Mac or actually just compete with one another.
The success of the new computers will depend on several things. One is whether consumers are willing to use Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Vista over the Apple OS, which has gotten very good reviews. Another is whether the new PCs can match most of the attractive design features of the Mac.
But the most important factor may be price. If PC manufacturers can bring most of the Mac's features to market for several hundred dollars less per machine, then they have a chance.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Banks that include Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) are reportedly in talks to help bail out struggling bond insurer ACA Capital Holdings, which lost $1B in the most recent quarter, according to two people briefed on the situation and reported by the New York Times; ACA Capital has guaranteed $26B in mortgage securities.
Executives at Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) were faced with last-minute questioning from bankers that were reluctant to fund the final portion of the $8.2B deal to take the company private, according to sources close to the company, the Chicago Tribune reported.
WEB SITES:
Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" reported that analysts are not convinced that the deal with Citadel is enough to save E*Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC), as it does not eliminate E*Trade's $12.4B second-lien mortgage exposure, and the company could potentially face further customer attrition, which many think will continue to pressure the shares.
Reuters makes the argument that strong numbers from HP (NYSE: HPQ) will cause the market to expect more from Dell (NASDAQ: DELL). The news service says HP "results may raise the bar for competitor Dell, which is more vulnerable to U.S. economic woes and reports earnings next week." Dell does get 85% of its sales from the U.S. market.
Wall Street is not so stupid that it has missed the vulnerability in the Dell model. HP's shares are up more than 20% so far this year. Dell's are only up 5%.
Dell only needs to report very modest numbers to please investors. Its new program to sell to consumers through retail outlets is only a year old and its push into key markets like China is in the early stages.
The question investors will have for Dell management is: what does 2008 look like? If the PC company cannot begin to pick up shares from HP, Lenovo, and Acer by then, the turnaround is no turnaround. It will have turned out to be a nice try.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Hewlett-Packard (NASDAQ: HPQ) today reported quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street analysts' forecasts for the 11th straight quarter. The company also gave earnings guidance that exceeded analysts' estimates and announced an $8 billion stock buyback.
Net income soared 28% to $2.16 billion, or 81 cents a share, from $1.7 billion, or 60 cents, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, profit was 86 cents. Revenue jumped 15% to $28.3 billion. The largest computer maker was expected to earn 82 cents on revenue of $21.39 billion. Shares of the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company rose in after-hours trading.
In the current quarter, Hewlett-Packard expects profit of 80 cents on sales of $27.4 billion to $27.5 billion, exceeding analysts' estimates of 77-cent profit and revenue of $26.99 billion.
This underscores the challenge Michael Dell faces in turning around Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL). Hewlett-Packard has been kicking their butts ever since Mark Hurd took over as chief executive.
Last week, MetroPCS Communications (NYSE: PCS) ended its $4 billion merger deal for Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP), which thought the deal wasn't good enough. Both companies provide wireless services to those that the major carriers -- like Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T (NYSE: T) -- tend to avoid (such as low-income customers).
Well, LEAP shareholders may be regretting things. On the company's latest news bomb, the stock has plunged 34% to $38.33. In fact, since late July, the stock is down a stunning 61%.
First of all, LEAP said it will have to restate financial results for 2004, 2005, 2006 and the first half of 2007. The items include service revenues, operating expenses and so on. The amount is about $20 million or so.
Not so big, huh? Maybe not. After all, the company could be in default on its $890 million of debt.
Oh, and the company garnered only 36,500 subscribers in Q3 (the goal was 40,000). And, it looks like Q4 growth will be meager too.
All in all, it's hard to find anything good here. Then again, Leap's space is full of buyout activity so I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually hear some more buyout buzz on the company, especially in light of the big cut in the valuation.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Teva Pharma, Novavax, Corinthian Colleges, Fair Isaac and Tenneco were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Friedman Billings upgraded Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Outperform from Market Perform following Teva's better-than-expected Q3 report and guidance.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) to Buy from Neutral based on positive expectations for Ph I/IIa pandemic influenza data, the start of clinical trials for seasonal influenza, and expected announcement of a vaccine product candidate in Q4.
Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill following its better-than-expected Q1 report and guidance.
Citigroup upgraded of Fair Isaac (NYSE: FIC) to Buy from Hold shares to reflect the company's strong Q4 results and improved outlook.
Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia based on valuation and revenue opportunities in commercial truck market.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Energizer Holdings (NYSE: ENR) was upgraded at Bear Stearns to Peer Perform from Underperform.
Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) has filed all of its past due quarterly financial statements with the SEC. That means that the Nasdaq no longer has a reason to delist that company. It also means that the PC company can begin its huge share buyback program again.
Dell sent in the filings after an investigation "found that senior executives and other employees manipulated the company's financial statements to give the appearance of hitting quarterly performance goals," according toThe Wall Street Journal [subscription required]. The adjustment to net income for the four years was a modest $92 million.
In 2005, Dell's board had set up a plan to buy back as much as $10 billion worth of shares. But the investigation of accounting problems covered fiscal years 2003 through 2006, and the program was suspended.
With a market cap of $66 billion, buying $10 billion in shares could give earnings per share a very big lift.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) will begin selling its PCs in Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) office supply stores as of November 11, according to both companies. The PC lineup will include Dell's Inspiron 530 desktop PCs and two versions of Inspiron notebooks, as well as supplemental Dell products like all-in-one printers and flat-panel LCD monitors.
Dell's deal with Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) was grand when it was announced, but since the company has given no specific performance figures on how well its retail effort in Wal-Mart has fared, it's hard to gauge how customers will react to Dell's brand in Staples. Does Staples even sell many PCs?
Dell systems in Wal-Mart stores reflected an aura of older or overstocked parts assembled into PCs and dumped into Wal-Mart's parking lot, rather than any specific computer build made for the retailer, and I'm not so sure customers have responded in droves to buy Dells inside those local Wal-Mart stores. Not enough time has gone by, though, so I could be jumping the gun here.
Dell's latest partnership will put its PCs and products into 1,400 more retail locations, which will instantly give it more exposure to the American buying public. Perhaps that is what Dell is going after here -- mass exposure (which brings a certain amount of purchases) instead of strategic, slower partnerships. Dell is expected to strike more retail agreements in the next 12 to 18 months, but not without challenges, according to Robert W. Baird analyst Daniel Renouard. Dell is now significantly behind competitor Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) in overall computer system sales, and these retail efforts are considered by many to be a desperate attempt to win back market share. Right now, it's too early to attribute any success or failure in that effort.