If you are looking for clues telling you which stocks have a good chance of increasing in value, you might want consider watching what insiders are doing. After all, talk is cheap, but when insiders put their own money on the line, you should sit up and take note.

Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) topped the insider-buying charts for the week ending July 9th as insiders snapped up 21,000,000 shares of company stock at a market value of $125,160,000. During the past six months, insiders have increased their overall holdings in the company by 0.18% and now own 38.97% of PPC stock.

Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) reported, according to this source, a decent quarter in terms of bottom-line profit, but it wasn't enough to satisfy Wall Street. Sales rose almost 10% to $7.2 billion. And net income on an adjusted basis came in at $0.15 per share. That represented pretty good growth over last year's profit figure. But you know, it didn't really matter for two reasons. One, the call by the analyst community was for four more pennies. Two, guidance was not tasty at all. Management sees further pressures coming, and the aforementioned source mentions that the fulfillment of debt obligations is an issue.

A tough environment for chicken has been plaguing Tyson. Not only that, but a look at the company's press release shows that operational cash flow took a huge dive over the last twelve months, dropping roughly 58% to $288 million. There was no free cash for the year to support the dividend obligations. That isn't too encouraging.

The bottom line on Tyson, which competes with the also-struggling Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), is that it isn't a buy, at least not from where I sit. I know there will be investors out there who will see some value in the situation, but I cannot, at least not at this time. No, I'm not saying that I think Tyson will disappear. However, there are better ideas out there if you're looking to play the supermarket game over a long-term basis. There's Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), to name some examples. As I write this, Tyson's stock is down over 11%. Might we see a bounce in the next few days? Sure. But I'm not brave enough to step in with this one.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL) closed at $28.44 Tuesday. HRL is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on November 25. HRL overall option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Sanderson Farms (NYSE: SAFM) closed at $27.49 Tuesday. SAFM filed a $1 billion shelf registration for common and preferred shares on October 9 on the anticipation of using the proceeds to fund acquisitions. SAFM November option implied volatility of 91 is above its 26-week average of 58 according Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), the largest chicken company in the U.S., closed at $1.40 Tuesday. PPC announced on October 27 lenders have agreed to provide continued liquidity under credit facilities. PPC December option implied volatility is at 239 according to Track Data, suggesting large price fluctuations.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), a processor of packaged meats, closed at $9.49 Tuesday. SFD November option implied volatility of 166 is above its 26-week average of 88 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Tyson (NYSE: TSN) closed $8.05 Tuesday. TSN is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on November 11. TSN November option implied volatility is at 133, December is at 124; above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC) informed its lenders it does not expect to be in compliance with its fixed-charge coverage ratio covenant under its principle credit facilities. PPC is the U.S.'s second largest chicken processor. PPC November option implied volatility of 189 is above its 26-week average of 56 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Transmeta (NASDAQ: TMTA) said it has begun a process to seek a potential sale of the company. TMTA, a designer of chip technology, closed at $13.50. TMTA over all option implied volatility of 66 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB) to Outperform from Market Perform as they find AB's risk/reward attractive given its attractive long-term business model. Wachovia upgraded Watson Pharma (NYSE: WPI) and Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Outperform from Market Perform citing valuations and positive drivers for generics that include patent expirations and market share expansion.
• UBS raised Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) to Neutral from Sell on expected pricing power following the HBOS (OTC: HBOOY) acquisition.
• Otter Tail (NASDAQ: OTTR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• GFI Group (NASDAQ: GFIG) was upgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Sell.
• Merrill upgraded Logitech (NASDAQ: LOGI) to Neutral from Underperform.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded shares of Lloyds TSB Group to Underweight from Neutral on capital concerns and believes the HBOS acquisition is not in the best interest of shareholders.
• Stephens downgraded Universal Truckload (NASDAQ: UACL) to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation and concerns about a slowdown in the flatbed sector. The firm's target remains $28.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYE: AIG) reported a loss of $7.8 billion but raised its dividend.
• Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NYSE: BRL) missed earnings estimates and lowered its guidance.
• D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) posted a larger-than-expected Q2 loss on further write-downs.
• Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) posted its third straight quarterly loss on the continuing housing slump.
• Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) lower-than-estimated Q1 profit led shares to a 52-week low.
• Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) net income dropped 71% on a fall-off of M&A activity and a write-down.
• MGM Mirage Inc. NYSE: MGM) Q1 profits were dragged down by decreased consumer spending.
• Pilgrims Pride Corp. (NYSE: PPC) widened its Q2 loss due to the rising cost of feed.
• Playboy Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: PLA) swung to a Q1 loss as revenue declined in all units.
• Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) net income and revenue fell in the first quarter.
• Scotts Miracle Gro Co. (NYSE: SMG) blamed a slow start to spring for its Q2 profit decline.
• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: TEVA) posted a Q1 loss due to a charge.
• THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) posted a loss for its fourth quarter and revenues flat for the year.
• Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) posted lower-than-expected Q4 results due to the U.S. economic slump.
• Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG) Q2 loss widened and it suspended its quarterly dividend.

While Scotts Miracle Gro Co. (NYSE: SMG) Monday blamed a slow start to spring and recalls for a drop in second-quarter profits, Pilgrims Pride Corp. (NYSE: PPC) said its second-quarter loss widened due to rising feed costs and a restructuring charge. And analysts expect lower consumer spending on leisure travel and a drop in business travel to drag on Avis Budget Group Inc. (NYSE: CAR) first-quarter results when it reports on Tuesday.

Discounting charges, Marysville, Ohio-based Scotts reported it made $77.7 million, or $1.19 per share for the quarter ended March 29, two cents better than the forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Revenue fell 4% to $958 million. The company also warned that profits would likely fall below Wall Street forecasts for the year.

Pilgrim's Pride, the nation's largest chicken producer, lost $111.5 million, or $1.67 per share, in the three months ended March 29 compared with a loss of $40.1 million, or 60 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose to $2.10 billion. Analysts had expected a loss of 81 cents per share on $2.09 billion in sales. The company said feed costs would probably push the company to another loss in the current quarter as well.

Analysts expect Parsippany, New Jersey-based Avis to break even on a per share basis, on $1.37 billion revenue. In last year's first quarter, the company posted profit of 12 cents per share. It's unclear how much of an effect the current economic conditions will have on Avis's full-year 2008 results, but in April, rival Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTZ) managed to post an adjusted quarterly profit that beat Wall Street predictions.

Shares of Scotts ended the day up 1.2%, but fell nearly 12% in after-hours trading to $30.00. Pilgrim's Pride fell less than 1% during the day, then another 1.1% after hours to $23.59. Avis also continued its slide into after-hours trading, down to $13.49.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sierra Wireless, Navteq, Goldleaf Financial, Infineon and VeriSign were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Piper downgraded shares of Sierra Wireless (NASDAQ: SWIR) to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect increasing competition for the company's core businesses and longer term margin concerns. Based on comments from Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), Piper believes the new Gobi embedded solution is gaining more traction than previously anticipated.
  
• The firm also downgraded Navteq (NYSE: NVT) to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe the Nokia (NYSE: NOK) acquisition will close.
  
• Credit Suisse lowered its rating on Goldleaf Financial (NASDAQ: GFSI) to Market Perform from Outperform following its weak Q3 report and guidance.
  
• ABN Amro downgraded shares of Infineon (NYSE: IFX) to Hold from Buy as they believe the strength of the euro will hurt margins.
  
• VeriSign (NASDAQ: VRSN) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Hambrecht to reflect the uncertainty surrounding the company's numerous divestitures as well as the execution risk.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan removed Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC) from its Focus List.
  
• Bear Stearns downgraded European Pharmaceuticals to Market Weight from Market Overweight.
  
• Wachovia downgraded AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU), Exelon (NYSE: EXC) and FPL Group (NYSE: FPL) to Market Perform from Outperform.

With its recent acquisition of GoldKist, Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (NYSE: PPC) is now the largest chicken company in the United States. This acquisition was part of a larger consolidation of the chicken industry, a development that has given large companies like PPC and its rival Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) a great deal of pricing power, especially with the industry-wide production cuts that have limited supply and helped sustain higher prices.

This pricing power has been especially important with the rising price of corn, which has increased feed costs to a substantial degree. Fortunately for PPC, it's been able to offset these costs with higher prices, and its most recent quarterly report announced net income of $62 million, compared with a $20 million loss in the same quarter of 2006. For the nine months of fiscal year 2007, PPC's revenues are up nearly 65%.

It's no surprise, then, that PPC's stock price has benefited, and it is now trading near its 52-week high. It's not clear whether its margins will be sustainable, given the potential for corn prices to keep rising and the cyclical nature of poultry prices. But a recent report from Bank of Montreal's food analyst argued that corn prices have been self-correcting (they were down 25% over the summer), and it also pointed to the rise of Blue Ear disease in China, which could mean a rise in demand for protein-rich food like chicken; meanwhile the consolidation and production cuts should stabilize price volatility for the foreseeable future. At the right price, this one could well be a nice meal for your portfolio.

Type of Stock: The largest chicken company in America, with a newfound return to profitability.

Price Target: The Bank of Montreal report predicted a 12-month price target of $47. With the stock near $40, that
would be a nice gain of more than 10%. But this stock tends to go up and down a bit, and you might be able to make your purchase closer to $35.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com.