Oil Services Holders Trust (OIH) closed down 1.8% as WTI crude oil futures sold off 1.91% to $96.23, according to Bloomberg. March and April put option implied volatility of 31 is near its six-month average of 30, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
PetroChina (PTR) overall option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of 31, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Can you hear me now? Well listen closely, Verizon Communications (VZ
) is going to get a bounce from the Apple Inc. (AAPL
) iPhone in 2011. Nothing you don't already know. Is there a more sure thing in the coming year? Long term it will fade some, but in 2011 the pent up demand has to have a positive impact.
The telephone companies everywhere are going to have a good year. Verizon is a great stock for Roth IRA's, paying a 5.41% yield. The dilution of the iPhone market may hurt AT&T, Inc. (T
) some, as VZ is helped, but it too is a good long term hold and pays an even higher yield at 5.76%.
If you want to diversify internationally there are multiple good choices and they pay even higher yields.
Continue reading Chasing Value: New Years Quick Takes
We at BloggingStocks and everywhere else make the full gambit of prognostications, suggestions, predictions, guesses, analogies, and so forth in an attempt to improve potential investment opportunities for all our readers and provoke discussion.
All of this has its limits, but, if you are a fan of Professor Nassim NicholasTaleb and his best seller The Black Swan
then you already have been warned that the events that have the greatest impact on our lives and our investments are most often unpredictable. We cannot predict the future nor can we anticipate the tragedies that will tank our portfolio's.
While I do believe predicting the future is, how should I say, futile, there are general clues as to which way the wind blows.
Continue reading Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety
Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus newsletter, has added to global integrated oil companies to the buy list of his model portfolio: Royal Dutch Shell class B (RDS.B) and PetroChina Company Ltd. (PTR).
The advisor explains, "Royal Dutch is the fifth largest integrated oil company as well as one of the oldest oil companies in the world. And PetroChina is the largest oil company in China. We are adding both stocks to our current model portfolio.
"As for Royal Dutch Shell, the company was poorly managed for a while, which resulted in a huge write-off of assets in 2004. Since that time management has been replaced and the newcomers are doing a good job cleaning up the mess.
Continue reading Oil Favorites: Royal Dutch Shell and PetroChina
Until recently, my largest positions were in financial stocks Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC). As a contrarian investor, I do buy on fear and sell on greed as "my pal Warren" has advised for many years. This has worked out to be very profitable over the past 18 months. However, in the past 30 days the financial stocks have dropped to second place in favor of oil and gas stocks.
I think the economic recovery is moving at a snail's pace, lowering anticipated demand for oil while gas was already depressed based on the same factors and the addition of numerous new large supplies. Add to this the mess in the Gulf of Mexico and the public's already negative sentiment about oil companies and you have the makings of depressed pricing in the sector.
Continue reading Chasing Value: Buffett Must Be Buying Oil
Stories are starting to appear that "my pal Warren"
is gearing up for a major foreign acquisition. One of my dear friends Randy S. is taking a post graduate business class at UCLA where this issue is a part of the course. He is supposed to figure out what non US companies Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A
), led by Warren Buffett, might be considering for investment.
Ahh yes, the prediction business, quite tricky indeed. Starting with some basics, in most cases I would stick to the time tested philosophy that past performance is not an indicator of future success. That said, I think in the case of Buffett, it does. There are many clues along the trail based on his past performance.
Here are some basic consistencies from the existing portfolio that I would expect to hold true going forward.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett Looking Beyond Our Borders
The twelve super caps are down to seven: Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, Johnson & Johnson, China Mobile, PetroChina, Microsoft and ExxonMobil. Five are American companies and two are Chinese. The five U.S.-based enterprises have historically strong management teams and balance sheets. If this was the only criteria, I might take pause when considering the two Chinese companies only because I do not know enough about them to make a judgment, except that they have been very successful.
"My pal Warren" placed a large bet on PetroChina (PTR
), which he has since sold off, but he always makes a big deal about management, so we will give these two the benefit of the doubt. The two also pay the highest yields among the group.
So where do we stand today? We'll stick with all seven and here is why.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 6 -- Conclusions
The market continues to be very volatile and trending down. When the seas are this turbulent you want to be on the biggest ships and thus I continue my review of the super cap stocks. This time, I'm going to examine return-on-equity (ROE) and return on-invested-capital (ROIC).
I started with the 12 highest valued companies but remained with 10 after running them through several screens. Among those 10 super, caps the company that is producing the highest returns is Microsoft (MSFT).
Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 5 -- ROE, ROIC
Over the years I have referred to "my pal Warren" (Warren Buffet) on many occasions. He has taught me a great deal. I have learned a few things from Sir John Templeton (RIP) as well. But when I think about the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratios, it is Peter Lynch who stands tall.
Lynch has been retired for many years and has been generous enough to share some of his thoughts in a couple of worthy books: One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street. I highly recommend these best sellers to anyone that wants to expand their knowledge of value investing or manage their own finances.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 3
Since early last fall, the majority of pundits have been saying that there would be a rotation from small cap stocks to the safety of large cap stocks in the new year. So far, the small cap stocks have maintained the lead, but a shift is taking place and the longer the bull runs and the worse global news becomes, the more this is likely to continue.
I have decided to examine the largest of the large cap stocks; lets call them the "super" caps; the top twelve as of May 13, 2010. Over the course of this series, the order will change and the bottom few may fade in and out as the market activity dictates. I may update the order, but for simplicity's sake will not change the stocks from the current list.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps
PetroChina (PTR) closed April 1 at $119.13. WTI Crude Oil Futures are recently up .65% to $85.42 according to Bloomberg. PTR April put option implied volatility is at 25, May puts are at 28, June is at 30; below its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Baidu (BIDU) closed at $600. BIDU overall option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average of 42, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
India Fund (IFN) closed at $29.97. IFN overall option implied volatility of 26 is below its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
PetroChina (PTR) closed at $111.92. WTI Crude Futures are recently up 0.04% to $79.70 according to Bloomberg. PTR March put option implied volatility is at 24, April puts are at 29; below its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Options Update is by stock specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
- B. Riley upgraded Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP) to buy from neutral after the company acquired 19 Texas branches of Missouri-based First Bank. The firm has a $45 price target on shares.
- JPMorgan upgraded Fortinet (FTNT) to overweight from neutral on valuation following the recent pullback in shares. The firm has a $20 price target on the stock.
- Wells Fargo upgraded Lamar Advertising (LAMR) to outperform from market perform. The firm believes the stock's risk/reward ratio is compelling, as its checks indicate that advertising continues to accelerate in Q1.
- Caterpillar (CAT) was upgraded to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
- SAP AG (SAP) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
- BioMarin (BMRN) was raised to buy from hold at Roth Capital.
Continue reading Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: CAT, ERTS, FTNT, GME, PRSP, SAP, TWX ...
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