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The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

Analyst initiations: Telefonica, Affymax, Hatteras Financial

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Telefonica, Affymax and Hatteras Financial were today's noteworthy initiations:

  • Deutsche Bank initiated Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) with a Buy rating and believes concerns of an economic slowdown in Spain are overdone and that company is on track to make 2008 guidance.
  • Baird assumed coverage of Affymax (NADAQ: AFFY) with an Outperform rating and $25 target. The firm believes the market has discounted the regulatory and commercial prospects of lead compound Hematide, which they believe is a $800M revenue opportunity, and recommends buying shares aggressively in the mid-$20s.
  • Shares of Hatteras Financial (NYSE: HTS) were started with an Outperform rating and $35 target at Friedman Billings. The firm believes management has the opportunity to stabilize its agency portfolio and generate a return on invested capital of about 20%.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

  • Caris assumed OmniVision (NASDAQ: OVTI) with a Buy rating and $15 target.
  • Pioneer Natural (NYSE: PXD) was initiated at UBS with a Buy rating and $110 target.
  • UBS also initiated CME Group (NYSE: CME) with a Neutral rating and $430 target.
  • Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) was assumed with a Buy rating and $14.40 target at Merrill Lynch.

Analyst upgrades: PXD, GHDX and ATEC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pioneer Natural, Genomic Health and Alphatec were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE: PXD) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent weakness.
  • Genomic Health Inc (NASDAQ: GHDX) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, as they believe momentum for the company's Oncotype Dx test is building based on inclusion in new clinical guidelines and expanded reimbursement.
  • Alphatec Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: ATEC) was upgraded to Buy from Source of Funds at Think Equity, citing the new CEO's efforts to overhaul the company, which has positioned it for growth.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Pioneer (PXD) blazes trail for independents in the North Slope

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) is poised to be the first independent operator to produce oil on the North Slope, an area dominated by the major producers such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), though other independents such as Andarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) may not be far behind.

Ten-year-old Pioneer, based in Irvine, Texas, plans to begin drilling in a few weeks off the coast of Oooguruk Island, Alaska, in a field expected to yield as much as 90 million barrels of oil. Pioneer expects to begin producing oil from there in the first half of next year.

Pioneer's efforts are being closely watched to see whether independents can establish themselves on the North Slope. "Ours is a bellwether project," says Chief Operating Officer Tim Dove. "If we do well, make the project work in reasonable time and in a fiscally responsible manner, it could open up some avenues for us and other independents."

Pioneer also announced the start-up of its South Coast Gas (SCG) project, expected to produce approximately 50 million cubic feet of natural gas per day by the end of the year. Scott Sheffield, Pioneer's Chairman and CEO, says, "With the completion of SCG and considering that a majority of the capital costs related to our Oooguruk development on the North Slope will be invested by the end of 2007, we expect our 2008 drilling and development budget to decrease significantly as compared to 2007."

The share price has been rising since reaching a 52-week low of $35.51 in August after Pioneer's second quarter report. The share price at close on Friday was $46.02. Pioneer will report on its third quarter on November 6.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:23 PM

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