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Barron's sees ethanol stocks poised for a rebound

While many of us may think that ethanol companies are not a reliable investment, Barron's asks us to reconsider our thoughts, pointing out to a bright futures for those stocks. People's worries about ethanol companies came as a result of soaring crude oil prices. Thus, the general tendency was to use corn-based alcohol as a substitute for gasoline. The negative reaction was an immediate consequence, and a top official of the United Nations has named ethanol as a "crime against a great part of humanity" as it lead to higher food costs.

Barron's points out three ethanol producers, VeraSun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR), and Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX), which faced difficult time over the past year, although they saw a nice rebound recently after reporting first-quarter operating profits, and Congress passed a farm bill.

Looking ahead, the companies showed optimism related to their further production based on projected 2009 capacity. This takes into account the completion of plants under construction when talking about Aventine and VeraSun. Thus, VeraSun has a projected production of 1.6 billion gallons, Aventine came with 433 million, while Pacific Ethanol has a projected production of 220 million.

Continue reading Barron's sees ethanol stocks poised for a rebound

Analyst initiations: U.S. retail hardlines, biofuels, IPG and OMC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. Retail Hardlines Sector, the BioFuels Sector, Interpublic Group and Omnicom Group were today's noteworthy initiations:
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of International Flavors (NYSE: IFF) with an Overweight rating.
  • Wachovia initiated CGI Group (NYSE: GIB) with a Market Perform rating.
  • Leap Wireless (LEAP) was initiated at RBC Capital with a Sector Perform rating and $55 target.

Option update: Ethanol producers volatility up as shares at record lows

Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX), the largest West Coast-based marketer and producer of ethanol, closed at $4.64 on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs said on November 27: "We are adding PEIX to the Americas Sell List, as we believe that ethanol equities will continue to lag the energy sector and broader stock market." PEIX overall option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) operates as an ethanol producer. VSE closed at $10.14 on Tuesday. Friedman Billings says: "Sources tell us House staff hope to complete draft energy legislation today with hopes of a Floor vote next week. Proposed RFS increases exceed existing expectations for near-year corn ethanol legislative demand increases." VSE overall option implied volatility of 64 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) a producer, marketer and end-to-end distributor of ethanol. Corn futures are down 0.56% to 398.50 and WTI Crude futures are at 94.48 according to Bloomberg. AVR overall option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 57 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Demand slows for ethanol, forcing up food prices

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) recently received an unexpected call from a "prominent investment banker" inquiring about a merger with Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC); it was rejected outright, and Citi instead turned to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, a part of the Abu Dhabi government, for a $7.5B cash infusion, the Wall Street Journal reported.
  • As ethanol demands forced up food prices, and with questions about its capacity to be a significant oil substitute, demand has slowed, according to the Wall Street Journal, which doesn't help the prospects of newly public companies such as VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) and Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX).
  • The Financial Times reported that the SRM hedge fund increased its stake in British bank Northern Rock to 8.5% yesterday, probably in order to block Virgin Group from taking over the lender. SRM and RAB Capital, with a combined stake in Northern Rock of more than 15%, are backing a rival bid for the bank by British private equity fund Oilvant.
OTHER PAPERS:
WEB SITES:
  • MarketWatch's Herb Greenberg believes Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) CEO Bob Meers may have "exaggerated a bit" about his job history. While it's true Mr. Meers was employed by Reebok International, he was not president and CEO of the brand for the length of time he stated, nor was he the president of the Rockport shoe and Greg Norman brands.

Analyst upgrades: BAESY, VDSI, CRM, TPX and FIS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BAE Systems, VASCO Data Security, Salesforce.com, Tempur Pedic and Fidelity National were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Goldman added BAE Systems (OTC: BAESY) to its Conviction Buy List, as they believe the company's defensive growth characteristics will lead to outperformance.
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of VASCO Data Security International Inc (NASDAQ: VDSI) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent sell-off in the stock.
  • Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE: CRM) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Piper to reflect the company's strong cash flow generation and the firm's belief that CRM is a core holding in the enterprise application market.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Tempur Pedic International Inc (NYSE: TPX) to Buy from Hold, as they believe double-digit sales growth and margin expansion will drive 25% EPS growth over the next few years.
  • SunTrust raised its rating on Fidelity National Information Services Inc (NYSE: FIS) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Rising corn prices make ethanol a risky investment

Not so long ago, ethanol was all the rage, and stocks like Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX) were soaring. So about a year ago, I called in on Jim Cramer's Mad Money and asked when the ethanol bull market would be over -- he pronounced it dead on that show, and it was a good call.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the true driver of the ethanol boom could be in jeopardy [subscription]. As more and more corn gets used for ethanol, consumers are seeing a surge in the price of food. With ethanol production approaching the Congressionally mandated quota, the growth could be over unless Congress decides to make another push for it.

Anyone investing in, or thinking about investing in, ethanol stocks should do so with the awareness that it's an industry that exists largely because of government subsidies -- it's a speculative political play as much as anything else.

And it looks like the political tide could be turning against ethanol.

Analyst downgrades: Ethanol sector, BT, AMR and KYPH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The ethanol sector, BT Group, AMR Corp and Kyphon were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) and Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX) to Underperform and VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm said the ethanol market has become increasingly challenging as spot market prices have declined by 30% in the past few months and expect pressure to remain through 2008 as the industry's growing pains continue.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Underweight from Equal Weight on valuation and regulation uncertainty ahead of Ofcom's first consultation document next week.
  • AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman to reflect the company's U.S. exposure as they expect the U.S. economy to slow.
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Kyphon Inc (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Neutral from Buy on valuation as the spread on the acquisition by Medtronic Inc (NYSE: MDT) has now narrowed.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

How to play Congress' environmental policymaking

Despite a seemingly unanimous support for environmental matters from the Democratic party, there are still divisions inside the party on how to go forward. According to a Wall Street Journal article [subscription required], the sharpest inter-party divisions exist on the issue of fuel-economy standards.

Interestingly, it seems like everyone in the party agrees fuel-economy standards need to be increased, the issue is when and how fast. Automakers, especially U.S.-based, would stand to suffer if fuel-economy standards are quickly increased for obvious reasons such as making it more costly to produce cars -- a factor that American automakers would probably prefer not to deal with in their current situations.

Fuel-economy standards are certainly not the only issue at hand. Last week, House speaker Nancy Pelosi agreed to mandating utilities to begin using more renewable fuels. And like I covered in this post, I think the ethanol mandate is going to be increased in the next environmental bill.

All this being said, I think the most interesting way to play the environmental boom in America is through a basket of stocks. One specific stock I like for the environmental bill is Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX), a thesis I covered here.

If you don't have time to do research on all the different companies in this interesting sector, I really like the Powershares Clean Energy ETF (AMEX: PBW). This is basically an index of clean companies which serves to reduce the risks in entering this volatile and speculative sector. Although the expense ratio is rather high at .60%, it's the best option for investors not willing to spend too much time on this sector.

Analyst upgrades 5-10-07: B, MA, NVDA and PZZA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's noteworthy upgrades include Papa John's Int'l, Inc (PZZA), ExpressJet Holdings, Inc (XJT), Nvidia Corp (NVDA),Georgia Gulf Corp (GGC) and MasterCard (MA):
  • Following Q1 results, Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Papa John's Int'l, Inc (NASDAQ: PZZA) to Buy from Neutral, citing better-than-expected revenue growth, improved margins and acquisitions.
  • Soleil upgraded shares of ExpressJet Holdings (NYSE: XJT) to Hold from Sell with a $7 target due to the likely absence of any real news until at least August.
  • Deutsche Bank assumed shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy, up from Hold, as the firm believes Vista will accelerate NVDA's growth rates making their 2008 estimates conservative.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Georgia Gulf Corp (NYSE: GGC) to Buy from Sell based on an improved near-term outlook.
  • MasterCard (NYSE: MA) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Stifel based on the lenders impressive Q1 results and pricing power...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Branson's $3 billion to save the world

virgin

His official name is Sir Richard Charles Nicholas Branson. But, of course, he is certainly not stuffy.

He has incredible vision, and tremendous business skills, and he likes to challenge conventional widsom. And the formula has padded his bank account with a net worth in excess of $3 billion.

Now Branson wants to give it away to deal with the challenges of global warming. Over the next 10 years he is going to invest up to $3 billion to attack the problem. The proceeds will come from 100% of profits from a variety of his businesses at Virgin.

Basically, he will focus on renewable energy systems and technologies.

I'm sure Branson's email inbox is overflowing right now with pitches. With soaring oil prices, there has been an influx of startup companies trying to find ways to provide alternative energy approaches. This should also be good news for the long-term prospects of ethanol companies such as VeraSun (VSE) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), which has Microsoft's Bill Gates as an investor.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-46.0310,404.92
NASDAQ-11.962,164.05
S&P 500-3.611,102.63

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 12:53 PM

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