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Food for thought: Best buys in food & beverage

In a difficult economic environment, it is often wise for investors to consider stocks in more defensive and relatively recession-resistant sectors. And one such area is food and beverage stocks.

As the long-standing market maxim goes, consumers can pull back on spending for vacations, remodeling, and new cars, but they still need to eat and drink.

In that light, I turned to nine leading newsletter advisors who serve up their current favorite ideas in the food and beverage sector:

Continue reading Food for thought: Best buys in food & beverage

Option update: Adjusting positions in Panera Bread (PNRA) and JP Morgan (JPM)

Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA), an owner and franchisor of 1,115 bakery-cafes, is recently up $2.28 to $45.40.

  • PNRA reported that third quarter revenue increased 35% to $276 million compared to the year ago period.
  • Bear Stearns says: "Sales in line; guidance narrowed up versus consensus."
  • PNRA overall option implied volatility of 37 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price risks.

JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), a global financial holding company, closed at $46.78.

  • Bloomberg reported: "China may prevent foreign investors from taking control of domestic brokerages, a setback to Wall Street's ambitions to tap the world's fastest-growing stock market, people familiar with the planned rules said."
  • JPM is expected to report EPS on 10/17.
  • JPM October option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Panera Bread Company: A temporary rut

The past several months have not been kind to Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA). The stock was trading near $70 last fall after several years of steady growth, then it started dropping early in October, made up some of that lost ground, and then took a real hit in June when the company lowered its expectations for the second quarter. Then, last week it lowered its expectations for the third quarter, which sent the stock down another 9%.

The main reason for these woes is decreased profitability. Analysts like Jeffrey Bernstein at Lehman Brothers have blamed rising commodity prices, while John Gloss of CIBC attributes it to commodities as well as labor costs. The company has looked to customer shifts from home-baked bread and muffins to outsourced products like scones and soufflés. Others have blamed rising fuel costs that have led to more customers staying home rather than driving to eat. Whatever the reason, PNRA's results have not been good, and investors have understandably been selling shares.

Continue reading Panera Bread Company: A temporary rut

Analyst initiations 6-08-07: Restaurants, CBG and JLL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Restaurants, CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (NYSE: CBG) and Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (NYSE: JLL) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Deutsche Bank initiated shares of McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE: YUM) with Buy ratings and a $61 target and $76 target, respectively, and shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) with Hold ratings an a $54 target and $83 target, respectively.
  • Wachovia initiated shares of CB Richard Ellis with an Outperform rating, as it views CBG as a compelling investment opportunity giving its leading position in the top real estate markets and breadth of services.
  • Wachovia also initiated shares of Jones Lang LaSalle with an Outperform rating, as it expects JLL to benefit from international services given the increasing flow of real estate dollars across boarders and to less well developed regions of the globe.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Landmark case: A sandwich is not a burrito

Many years ago, when I was in law school, I had to read lots of boring legal cases. From time to time, though, there would be a crazy case to liven things up.

Well, we got one recently. Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), which is a large bakery-cafe chain, sued Qdoba Mexican Grill, which is owned by Jack in the Box (NYSE:JBX). Qdoba wanted to move into a mall in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts. The mall already had a Panera, and Panera's lawyers had cleverly negotiated an important clause in its lease agreement: the mall was prohibited from renting to another sandwich shop.

The ruling? The judge dismissed Panera's claim. His analysis was that, technically speaking, a burrito is not a sandwich. Simply put, a burrito involves only one tortilla, whereas a sandwich has two slices of bread.

Yes, it looks like he's on solid ground. Of course, Panera's attorneys disagree and will appeal.

It's enough to make me wish I were back in law school.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

Analyst initiations 11-14-06: SBUX, Panera with Outperform, Autodesk with Buy

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Specific restaurants and Autodesk (ADSK) top today's list of initiations.

  • Robert W. Baird initiated coverage of Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX), Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ:PNRA), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) and Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) with Outperform ratings and P. F. Chang's China Bistro Inc (NASDAQ:PFCB) and Rare Hospitality International, Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) with Neutral ratings.
  • American Tech initiated Autodesk , Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) with a Buy rating and $12 target. The firm expects to see meaningful upside to 2008 consensus estimates and recommends investors to buy the stock on any pullback following Thursday's results.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

  • Soleil initiated Openwave Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPWV) with a Hold rating, citing unlikely outperformance due to their maturing product line and consolidating customer base.
  • The Bank of America initiated F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) with a Buy and $90 target. The firm said checks in the enterprise segment have been positive. In addition, Soleil said the company will soon enter a major product cycle with four launches.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer calls for Panera to go to $74; make dough from bread

panera bread companyCramer discussed a tale of two different Panera Breads. On MAD MONEY, he said that Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ:PNRA) is not a $46 or $64 stock. He said on July 26 the company committed a cardinal sin by revising its range. The bakery chain revised by broadening, extending the top and bottom of its range by $0.02 in either direction. And although the same store sales were surprisingly low one month, it was just like Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX): the following month, sales were back to normal, and everyone bought the stock.

He says that Crispani is to Panera what Frappuccino is to Starbucks. He says PNRA should never have been there and he thinks PNRA is going to $74 soon. He said CIBC's John Glass was dead right on his call when he said that PNRA's drop back then was the wrong move. Cramer thinks the company goes higher.

PNRA has 939 bakery-cafes in 37 states. It reports in two weeks; Cramer argues that investors should should buy half of a position now and half after the earnings report. He thinks the company can have 2,500 to 3,000 stores before reaching any saturation. There was a change in strategy that extends the company's market, from lunch only to both lunch and dinner.

PNRA has a 52-week trading range of $46.25 to $75.88. PNRA closed down 1.5% in regular trading at $64.22, but is back up closer to $65.00 in after-hours trading.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 06:58 AM

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