Awhile back, amid the subprime default fall-out, more-somber outlook for the U.S. economy and hence, the markets, yours truly suggested that investors increase the number of defensive stocks in their portfolios. In doing so I drew on a lesson offered by my late Uncle Nick, a lifelong New York Giants fan and season ticket holder. The wisdom:

In tough times, think established companies. Something, as my Uncle Nick would say, "As strong as the New York Giants' defensive front four." And I added that in case one hadn't noticed lately, the defensive front four of the Giants, also the favorite football team of yours truly, is still pretty good.

(My late Uncle Nick, of course, based his advise on the Giants' longstanding tradition of building a strong defense first, because, according to many revered football head coaches, Vince Lombardi and Bill Parcells among them, defense wins championships.)

Of all the idiotic predictors of market performance (and I would argue that nearly all of them are idiotic: predicting the future direction of the stock market as a whole is darn near impossible), the Super Bowl Indicator has to be the dumbest.

Here's how it work: When an "original" National Football League team wins the big game, the market rises; it falls when the winner is a team that joined the NFL in the merger with the American Football League in 1970. The indicator has an 81% success rate historically.

So if the Patriots win the Super Bowl, that's a bad omen.

The Wall Street Journal devoted an article to this nonsense today [subscription], without any hint of irony or explanation of how incredibly dumb this indicator is.

With the New England Patriots one game away from becoming the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to go undefeated in the regular season, a showdown between the NFL's NFL Network and the networks was ready.

Saturday's season finale featuring the Patriots and the New York Giants was to be run exclusively on the NFL Network, which isn't carried by most cable operators. Blocking cable-watching fans from all over country from access to the fans would have given the league horns but, after receiving a letter from Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the league has relented. The game will also appear on CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) and General Electric (NYSE: GE)'s NBC.

In a statement, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said the league made the decision to please fans: "We have taken this extraordinary step because it is in the best interest of our fans. What we have seen for the past year is a very strong consumer demand for NFL Network. We appreciate CBS and NBC delivering the NFL Network telecast on Saturday night to the broad audience that deserves to see this potentially historic game. Our commitment to the NFL Network is stronger than ever."

This has to score the NFL Network some major points in the PR battle between itself and the cable companies that refuse to carry its programming because of the league's huge pay requests. The NFL has a site where it urges fans to demand the NFL Network, and has wasted no time in posting the news of its generosity on that site.

The league also has a letter it wants you to send to your elected officials (who clearly have nothing better to do...) accusing cable companies of taking advantage of football fans.

Having perhaps played some small role in bringing the Patriots game to network television, John Kerry has accomplished far more than the man who beat him in the last Presidential election.

The National Football League fined New England Patriots head coach $500,000 for cheating and now, according to experts, he will be able to take is a nice tax deduction.

While I'm no tax expert, it seems wrong that he should be able to do that.

According to Myron Grauer of Capital University Law School, "Because, unfortunately, in this day and age, it probably is 'ordinary' for coaches and players in professional sports to cheat and, if caught, to be fined by the league, the fine levied on the Patriots' coach can be viewed as an ordinary and necessary business expense."

Wonderful. So now parents can explain to their 9-year old Patriots fans that cheating is just an ordinary and necessary part of conducting business.

Free Jeff Skilling!

Bob Stovall, currently of Wood Asset Management, popularized the Super Bowl stock market indicator, which says that if an old NFL team -- one that was part of the original NFL prior to the 1970 merger of the NFL and AFL -- wins the Super Bowl, the market will rise that year. Stovall claims that this indicator has correctly predicted the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average almost 80% of the time.

This year, the indicator pits two old NFL teams against each other. The Bears facing the Colts marks the seventh time that two old NFL teams have faced off in the big game. The six previous times that's happened, the Dow has gone up every time, posting an average gain of 18%.

I've commented on this indicator in the past and agree with those who find it a curious coincidence. But as a New England Patriots fan, I am not now in the mood to contemplate the certainty that an old NFL team will win the Super Bowl next month. When the Patriots were up 21-3 in the second quarter, I was optimistic. But I will admit to fearing a turning point when I saw how the Colts -- which moved to the AFC when the NFL and AFL merged in 1970 -- were able to score right before the end of the first half.

After correctly predicting the market 90% of the time in the Super Bowl's first 31 years, the indicator has had some trouble in recent years. It failed in 2004 after the Dow gained following the Patriots victory over the Carolina Panthers. And the indicator's had only two clean wins in the last nine games. In fact, two of the market's best years followed wins by the AFL-born Denver Broncos over old NFL teams in 1998 and 1999.

I don't believe the Dow will rise 18% this year. But I will be rooting for the Bears!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, a Professor of Management at Babson College, and editor of The Cohan Letter.