Continue reading Financial Reform Has No Credit Default Swap

Financial Reform Has No Credit Default Swap originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 09 Jun 2010 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Paul Volcker was chairman of the Federal Reserve during the 1970s and 1980s when OPEC raised the price of oil from about $2.50 per barrel to $30.00 per barrel overnight. Since oil is integral to all parts of our economy, we saw the worst inflation ever. Volcker had to raise interest rates to near 20% to break the back of the inflation. He is no shrinking violet.

Now, again, he is center stage. His latest proposal, called the "Volcker Rule," calls for banks that do proprietary trading to give up their banking status. Goldman Sachs (GS) and other financial institutions acquired bank status during the financial crisis. One condition for receiving TARP money was that institutions had to be a bank. The Treasury department allowed them to become banks, and they did receive TARP money.

Continue reading The Volcker Rule: You Can't Stay a Bank and Do Proprietary Trading

The Volcker Rule: You Can't Stay a Bank and Do Proprietary Trading originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One of President Obama's accomplishments during his first 100 days was the passage of a $787 billion stimulus plan. I think the idea of economic stimulus makes sense when an economy is in the middle of a deflationary spiral. As I posted, that's when a drop in demand leads to excess productive capacity, causing companies to cut prices and fire workers, which in turn lowers demand as more workers -- whose consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP growth -- have less to spend.

So far, only about 10% of the stimulus money has been doled out and it's not having much effect in counteracting this deflationary spiral. How so? First quarter GDP plunged 6.1% -- compared to a 6.3% decline in 2008's fourth quarter -- and the preliminary numbers are usually adjusted downward. The unemployment rate is expected to hit 8.9% in April from 8.5% in March.

Continue reading How's that $787 billion stimulus plan working out?

How's that $787 billion stimulus plan working out? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 03 May 2009 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Former Federal Reserve chair and current presidential adviser Paul Volcker says that the global economy may be deteriorating even more precipitously than it did during the Great Depression.

"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," he said at a Columbia University luncheon. He also dismissed the notion that the financial innovation of the past decade has had any positive results: "There is little correlation between sophistication of a banking system and productivity growth."

Continue reading Volcker says this could be worse than the Great Depression

Volcker says this could be worse than the Great Depression originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 21 Feb 2009 18:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There is no way to know why stocks go up or down every day. That's why I always find it somewhat silly when I see simple explanations for the movement in prices. The explanation offered for today's 494 point rise is that investors are celebrating the rumor that Timothy Geithner will be the next Treasury Secretary. How does the media know that investors are only celebrating Geithner's appointment and not that of Bill Richardson as Commerce Secretary?

Make no mistake. I agree with the choice of Geithner and made a case for him over former Harvard president, Lawrence Summers, and former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. My reasoning for Geithner was that he had excellent interpersonal skills and high energy coupled with an intimate familiarity with the current financial crisis. Unlike Summers, Geithner is highly unlikely to alienate people, and having picked Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State, President-elect Obama will have enough drama on his hands with both Clintons.

Geithner shares something with current Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson -- he graduated from Dartmouth. I hope that he makes far better use of that Ivy League education in the Treasury Secretary's role than his predecessor. While Geithner will be left with a huge mess that was not helped by his fellow Dartmouth alum, it will be difficult for him to do a worse job than Paulson. The world will be depending on him.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Did stocks rise 494 points on the Geithner bounce? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Volcker: U.S. needs more civil engineers and fewer financial engineers

Volcker: U.S. needs more civil engineers and fewer financial engineers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warren Buffett to advise Barack Obama on the economy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker gave testimony today before a Joint Economic Committee of Congress. He addressed the current financial and economic environment and the role of the Federal Reserve.

He discussed how the financial market environment has changed considerably since his tenure as Fed Chairman in the early and mid 1980's. He pointed out that financial institutions like investment banks and hedge funds, whose failure can have tremendous effects on the financial system, are lightly regulated. "Systemically important investment-banking institutions should be regulated and supervised" in a similar manner to commercial banks.

Chairman Volcker stressed the need to update the entire regulatory framework, saying "It's not simply a matter of inexperience or technical failures." He also discussed the need to update regulations on a global basis because of the increasing coordination between world central banks.

Continue reading Fed Chairman Volcker's testimony: Update regulations to reflect the new reality!

Fed Chairman Volcker's testimony: Update regulations to reflect the new reality! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 May 2008 13:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The coming recession may be among the worst originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 Jan 2008 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.