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Short Stories: How to profit from the pending plunge

Although short selling -- the practice of selling borrowed shares with the hope of repaying the loan by buying back the shares at a lower price -- goes against the American belief that stocks always go up, I have long been fascinated with it. Short Stories discusses what works, what doesn't, and what some of the leading lights in shorting stocks think about its opportunities and threats. I describe possible short trades and seek your comments and questions for story ideas. I don't offer any investment advice and I don't trade on any of the posts I write.

BusinessWeek reports that the consumer is tapped out. Can you profit from the combination of a falling market and a cash-starved consumer?

I was scheduled to appear this morning on CNBC's Squawk Box to discuss ways to profit from problems with consumer finance. Last night, my appearance was canceled -- I think it might have had something to do with the global market crash. But CNBC's loss can be your gain. Here's why I think the consumer will be the next shoe to drop in the economy and a few ways to profit.

  • Unemployment rate rising (to 5% in the most recent report)
  • Wage growth slower than inflation
  • Declining value of homes makes home equity borrowing a non-option
  • Savings rate -0.7% -- the worst since 1929
  • Consumer installment borrowing at record $2.46 trillion

Continue reading Short Stories: How to profit from the pending plunge

Should banks be taken to task for predatory overdraft charges?

One of my close friends called me to complain that she had over $100 in overdraft fees because of a total of $16 worth of Red Bull, cigarettes, and chips -- all paid for at different times. She hadn't realized how close her checking account was to a zero balance, and was assessed a separate overdraft for each purchase, even though they were as low as $.69. It's hard for me to see those fees as anything other than a bank milking a young, inexperienced client (no, customer) for money she couldn't afford. When I talked to her dad about it, the word he used was "evil."

These overdraft charges are not a convenience to prevent bounced checks. As Laura Rowley writes, "Do the math. You may find that you paid an effective 3,000 percent annual interest rate on a courtesy loan you never asked for."

Ms. Rowley makes a number of points about how abusive the system is, and I agree with all of them. Banks should be less evil, and the Consumer Overdraft Protection Fair Practices Act should be passed.

But there's another side to this. As Rowley points out, most people who suffer from overdraft charges are lower-income. Many have their credit cards through separate banks, and don't use the bank for mortgages or other cash-cow services that banks provide. So how can a bank make a buck off people with little in the way of assets? Overdraft fees -- a game of "gotcha" that is absolutely predatory. But can you really blame them that much?

Continue reading Should banks be taken to task for predatory overdraft charges?

Should Wal-Mart be allowed to move into banking?

BusinessWeek's "Debate Room" features an interesting point-counterpoint debate on the topics of Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) foray into the banking and financial services industry.

Ronald Ence of Independent Community Bankers of America naturally opposes the move: "Federal and state lawmakers traditionally have limited banks' rights to conduct commercial activities and prohibited commercial firms from owning banks. The reason: to prevent a dangerous concentration of economic and financial power or a threat to the safety and soundness of our financial system and the federal deposit insurance fund."

Howard Davidowitz disagrees: "The hue and cry over Wal-Mart's attempts to expand its financial-services business is largely motivated by a single fact: The company will offer these services at a lower cost to the consumer, taking revenue away from competitors that happen to include banks."

While I'm certainly no great fan of the world's largest retailer, I'm inclined to agree with Davidowitz. If America's banking system was succeeding in providing value to low-income consumers, Ence might have a point. But Wal-Mart will primarily be taking market share away from loan sharks and payday lenders, and that's good for America. If companies like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) would step up and offer products that make sense for low-income workers, I might be more inclined to oppose Wal-Mart's foray into banking. But the company could step in and provide a valuable service to a market that has been largely ignored and exploited, so why not give it a shot?

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 07:05 PM

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