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Peabody (BTU): Energy expert looks to coal

"Peabody Energy (BTU) remains a buy in our 'gushers portfolio'." says energy sector expert Elliott Gue.

In his The Energy Strategist, he explains, "Strong demand for coal from India and China is a growth story that will play out in 2010."

Gue explains, "Peabody reported its third quarter results and share prices have reacted positively. The weakness in US coal markets remains a challenge, but Peabody has taken steps to shore up profitability in the US, cutting back planned production and locking in contracts for 2010 at fixed prices.

Continue reading Peabody (BTU): Energy expert looks to coal

Options Update: Coal companies' volatility low on higher energy prices

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) a coal company, closed at $35.68. BTU is expected to report Q2 EPS in late July. BTU June option implied volatility is at 62, July is at 61; below its 26-week average of 74, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE) closed at $24.70. MEE June option implied volatility is at 84; July is at 78; below its 26-week average of 91; according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) closed at $18.82. ACI June and July option implied volatility of 68 is below its 26-week average of 83 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

The week in preview: The new earnings season ramps up

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) started off the new earnings season with disappointing results that helped to stifle the recent rally. Was that enough of a sign of what's to come? No, probably not. But the earnings reports start to fly in earnest this week, which should provide a more detailed picture of the state of things.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that some of the biggest names will prove to be holding their own. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to post a profit of $4.91 per share, marginally higher than a year ago, and Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) expected $1.22 per share profit is slightly lower year over year. Even Mattel Inc.'s (NYSE: MAT) estimated loss of $0.13 per share is the same as in the year-ago period.

Continue reading The week in preview: The new earnings season ramps up

Coal insiders eye Peabody (BTU)

"Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), the largest private market coal firm in the world, had a great 2008," says Jack Adamo who has recently added the stock to the buy list of Insiders Plus.

"Peabody has extensive holdings in the U.S. and Australia, the latter serving the China/Asia Pacific markets. It sells steam coal for heating and utility use, and coking coal for steel making.

"Peabody has had some decent iInsider buying in the last few months -- about 30,000 shares -- not enough to get too excited about, but encouraging. There were also 27,000 options exercised, most of it at very low prices, for which the holder took no profits.

"That's also a good sign, particularly since those exercises come with a tax bill, and shares weren't sold to pay it. It implies faith the stock will rise.

Continue reading Coal insiders eye Peabody (BTU)

Options Update: Coal producers volatility flat; shares at low end of range

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) closed at $18.50 Friday. ACI January and February option implied volatility of 87 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE), a coal miner, closed at $16.19 Friday. MEE is scheduled to report Q4 EPS in the February option cycle. MEE February option implied volatility of 108 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX) closed at $32.15 Friday. CNX has two principle business units: coal and gas. CNX February option implied volatility of 90 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Alpha Natural (NYSE: ANR), an Appalachian coal producer, closed at $18.38 Friday. ANR February option implied volatility of 107 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), a coal company, closed at $25.06 Friday. BTU is expected to report Q4 EPS in late January. January and February option implied volatility of 97 is above its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Commodity ETF investing: Own 42 coal mining companies with KOL

Whether it's a recession or an economic boom, one thing doesn't change, the need for energy. And until technology leaps ahead, coal is the largest producer of fuel for the generation of electricity in the world. It's also the most abundant fossil fuel in the United States. Coal is obviously not recession immune as people tighten the reigns on their lives and cut back on electricity consumption, but the shear necessity of electricity makes the coal industry fairly resistant. An investment in an exchange traded fund (ETF) that is centered on the coal industry is a great way to hedge your bets by investing in a pool of successful companies in the coal field.

Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) seeks to replicate the price and yield performance of the Stowe Coal index, which provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide that derive greater than 50% of their revenues from the coal industry. With KOL you'll own shares of some of the most noted coal companies in the world, including Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI), which specializes in steam and metallurgical coal; CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX), a large provider of fuel for electricity in the United States; Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR), another leader in steam and metallurgical coal; and Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU), an exploration miner and coal producer worldwide, as well as several other highly rated coal companies across the globe.

Market Vector charges only a 0.65% fee, a fraction what a professional money manager would charge you to analyze research and pick coal mining stocks with this level of global reach. Recently KOL has gone through a typical correction for this commodity sector, but then suffered a greater hit as Asia saw a 20% decline in spot prices for thermal coal. The result? A better deal for those currently willing to dive into coal as an investment. KOL is up 14%, so maybe there's some light at the end of the mine.

Continue reading Commodity ETF investing: Own 42 coal mining companies with KOL

Is the commodity bubble bursting?

During July, the prices of oil exploration and coal stocks mentioned in my newsletter tumbled precipitously. For example, Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) and Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) lost roughly a quarter of their value by the end of July and Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) which had been up over 40% through June ended July up a relatively paltry 4% and 11% respectively.

I find this interesting because it violates one of the basic theories I have about what moves stock prices. This beat-and-raise theory says that if a company beats earnings estimates and raises its guidance, then the stock will rise. Otherwise it will fall. In the case of these four companies, each of them with the exception of Ultra which did not report, reported doubling or tripling of earnings and raised their guidance.

So why did their stocks fall? In the case of the oil and gas companies, it could be because of declining oil prices. Those peaked at $146 a barrel and recently traded at $127. But I am not aware of any diminution in the price of coal for which demand is strong due to Chinese and Indian infrastructure investment among other factors. Coal is used to make steel and to fire up power plants.

Continue reading Is the commodity bubble bursting?

Breakout for BTU: Technician buys Peabody Energy

"Coal miner Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) looks hot," says Leo Fasciocco, who focuses on stocks that have broken out from technical basing patterns.

In his The Ticker Tape Digest, he explains, "The stock rose above its break points of $81.20, hitting a new high." He adds, "With net set to surge 70% this year, we see an upside target of $105 per share."

"Peabody, based in St. Louis, is a major producer of coal with annual revenues of $4.7 billion. BTU's coal fuels more than 10% of U.S. electricity generation and 2% worldwide.

"The company has mining operations in Appalachia, the Powder River Basin, and the U.S. Southwest and Midwest, as well as Australia and Venezuela. It also markets, brokers, and trades coal, and develops electricity-generation projects.

"Technically, BTU has broken out from a six-week flat base today with expanding volume. It is part of the strong coal group, which has been one of the strongest acting sectors of the market.

Continue reading Breakout for BTU: Technician buys Peabody Energy

Barron's offers a survey of momentum plays in hot sectors

With crude oil prices soaring, shares in coal and fertilizer companies have also been climbing for the past year. Barron's offers a survey of the momentum plays, pointing out some opportunities and risks when investing in coal and fertilizer stocks.

Talking about risks, Barron's underlines the fact that it can be difficult for investors to put their hard earned money into a stock that is already trading near its highs. But as they say, the trend is up unless proven otherwise, and we might take this into account when picking our trades. For example, back in April, it looked like Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was facing technical weakness, but this did not last long and the company was able to rebound.

Now let's take a took at the coal sector. Data shows that the Dow Jones U.S. coal index gas gained more than 50% for the past year. While James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) has quadrupled this year, Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) has been seeing some weakness, and this might be a sign that the sector could face tough times ahead. The first concern tied to supply and demand appeared for Peabody when we began to notice that volume on rally days slipped, while volume on declining days has increased.

Continue reading Barron's offers a survey of momentum plays in hot sectors

Coal: The 'real black gold'

"Oil prices have made the headlines recently," says Martin Hutchinson in The Money Map Reporter. "But the miracle fuel of the 19th Century is coal, the forgotten fossil fuel."

"Coal is located primarily in politically stable, friendly countries - most notably the U.S. market itself. Coal prices have zoomed northward during the past year. The current spot price is around $135 per metric ton, more than double the level of a year ago. Meanwhile, coal production is running way ahead of forecasts.

"In 2005, the World Coal Institute reported production of 4,970 million metric tons, up 78% over 25 years. The main reason for coal's growth is that 80% of China's power needs and 65% of India's come from coal-fired stations.

"Since both India and China are expected to quadruple their power consumption by 2030, most of that increase must come from coal-fired stations. What are the best buys in the sector?

Continue reading Coal: The 'real black gold'

Peabody (BTU): Energy expert lights up coal

"Despite its dirty image, coal accounts for more than half of US power generation," says Elliott Gue, editor of the industry leading The Energy Strategist.

The advisor explains, "Although crude oil consistently makes the headlines, few realize that US coal prices recently surged to a fresh high." Here, he reviews a new portfolio holding, Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU).

"In addition to rising domestic demand, we are also seeing foreign demand. Indeed, coal accounts for about 50% of Germany's electricity production, 34% in the UK, 17% in Italy and a whopping 93% in Poland.

"Europe doesn't have enough coal production locally to satisfy demand. And now, the problem is that traditional sources of European coal imports aren't readily available.

Continue reading Peabody (BTU): Energy expert lights up coal

Analyst downgrades: Coal sector, independent refiners and ALXN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The coal sector, independent refiners and Alexion Pharmaceuticals were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Goldman downgraded the coal sector to Cautious from Neutral, citing valuations and expectations for lower coal prices. The firm downgraded CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) to Neutral from Buy and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Sell from Neutral.
  • Lehman downgraded independent refiners, including Alon USA Energy (NYSE: ALJ), to Negative from Neutral and continues to believe that 2H07 marked an inflection point for U.S. refiners, which are transitioning from a multiyear up-cycle into a new downtrend.
  • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALXN) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia following the company's Q4 results, as they believe management's revenue guidance represents a best-case scenario.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Lehman lowered Bayer (OTC: BAYRY) to Equal Weight from Overweight and Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.

Coal's price is surging on China demand

Most investors are aware that China's surging growth and increasing energy use have helped push oil to +$90 per barrel near-record highs. But what many probably don't know is that China's double-digit GDP growth is forcing up the price of another major energy source: coal.

The price of coal -- the most plentiful energy resource -- is rising at an alarming rate: Asia prices are up more than 30% this year, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday (subscription required), due mostly to China's net importer status. China had been a net exporter of coal, but in mid-2007 it imported coal for the first time. Coal is trading above $125 per metric ton. In 2003 it traded at about $25 per metric ton. Since January 2007 alone, coal is up more than 140%.

U.S. coal suppliers have benefited from the run-up: Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) is up about 90% since August 2007; ACI was down about $1.50 to $53.32 in Tuesday afternoon trading. Meanwhile, Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) is up about 45% since August 2007; BTU fell 40 cents to $56.12 on Tuesday afternoon.

Continue reading Coal's price is surging on China demand

The 52-week high club

This would seem to be a hard day to find stocks hitting new highs, but some industries produced winners.

Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW): It was a good day for metals stocks. This one ran up to $19.16 against a 52-week low of $8.83.

Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE: SWN): It was a good day for energy stocks. SWN moved higher to $58.63 from 52-week low of $31.14.

Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU): This coal company traded up to $63.97 from 52-week low of $36.20.

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA): This oil and natural gas operator hit $111.78 compared to 52-week low of $63.01.

Akeena Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKNS): This company licensed technology to Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.(ADR) (NYSE: STP). It moved to $11.99 from 52-week low of $2.97.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Skyrocketing oil boosts the alt fuels

Jim CramerTheStreet.com's Jim Cramer explains why the unique dynamic of oil as a commodity gives alternative fuels a "magic" price point.

Boy, that ethanol is cheap. It's cheap if we use corn, and it is even cheaper if we use soy. It doesn't matter how much it costs or how much infrastructure is needed, it's become the low-cost gasoline even with the stupid unnecessary subsidies.

Amazing, isn't it? But that's why Monsanto (NYSE: MON) (Cramer's Take) and Bunge (NYSE: BG) (Cramer's Take) are so cheap and why all of the various "sun" stocks are inexpensive. Oil at $92, going to who knows where, is going to make all of these unnaturally natural alternatives the low-cost fuels.

There are a lot of fuels that are cheaper to produce than oil now, particularly if you read Chris Edmond's unbelievably good series out of the Middle East. It's all demand-on-fire, supply disappearing that is controlling the price. It isn't Nigerian terrorism or Iranian intransigence or Iraqi-Turk tensions.

Those are all just headline terms by writers searching for a reason to write about oil jumping. They have no choice. They can't keep writing "because supply is outstripped by demand," even though that's what is happening.

In a sense, we have a fabulous opportunity as a country to make some headway here on domestic security because of this umbrella. Even coal, which will now never amount to much given the Democrats' desire to stop global warming, becomes too viable to ignore as the rallies in Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) (Cramer's Take) and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) (Cramer's Take) show.

So, the endless moves up will continue. I have never seen a commodity that has no price at which demand tapers. So anything with a price point of $80 or less is now a go.

Including all crops that will burn.

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RELATED LINKS:

The Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street This Week

The 'Hannah Montana' Stock Index


Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 11:36 PM

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