Recently released earnings from Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB) are a mixed bag. Sales of the company's signature product, soup in whatever form, are down. Sales are not down by a lot, but down nevertheless. Overall, total sales increased 7% to $2.3 billion, but almost half of that increase was due to currency exchange, not organic growth. EPS increased 6% to $0.70, but some of that gain was due to a $78 million stock repurchase that reduced the number of shares outstanding by 2 million. In many divisions, costs rose more quickly than prices, thereby depressing gross margins. Overall, cost of sales increased as well. Higher advertising and promotional expenses, coupled with a $104 million increase in net debt, caused a decrease in cash flow from operations. CEO Douglas Conant is optimistic that the current winter quarter, always a good season for soup sales, will deliver better numbers.

Soup sale declines were counteracted by increases in sales of Swanson broth, various types of V-8 juices and Prego pasta sauces. US baking and snacking sales increased 10% to $532 million, half the soup division revenue. Increased snack sales were led by the humble Goldfish cracker and other Pepperidge Farms baked goods.

Worldwide sales of Godiva Chocolate increased at least 10%. So why is Campbell looking to offload the brand? Campbell soups are now beginning to be available in Russia and China. The company hopes to see incremental additions to the bottom line from those two markets shortly. The company is sticking with its FY 2008 guidance of 3-4% sales growth rate and 5-7% EPS growth rate, acceptable numbers as long as the major driver of growth is organic and not currency exchange.

The first paragraph of Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB)'s 4th Quarter 2007 earnings report is a textbook lesson in corporate double speak. The press release headlines trumpet that fiscal year earnings per share (EPS) was up 13%, and sales up 7%. Good news, right? Not exactly. It's good news when sales are up AND earnings are also up, which is not the case with Campbell Soup. Investors do not care primarily what drives sales. Investors care what drives earnings, also known as profits, what we get to keep. So while 4th quarter sales were up 10% for the quarter to $53 million, despite the fact that some types of soup sales were flat, earnings were down 30% to $0.14 per share. That is the number that matters.

The big news for Campbell Soup is that, having spent quite a sum of money in preparation, the company is now ready to launch soup sales in both Russia and China, the world's two largest soup markets. Presently, the company has not released tentative figures of what it hopes sales and revenues will be in these two new markets. For fiscal year 2007, Campbell Soup did $1.4 billion in international sales, not counting Russia and China.

Like many food manufacturers, Campbell Soup is faced with rising costs for raw materials. The company has instituted cost cutting programs on the one hand, while increasing quarterly marketing expenses by 15% on the other. For the fiscal year, cash flow was reduced by almost 50% (not a typo) while the company repurchased 30 million shares at a cost of $1.14 billion. There are some good pieces of news in the earnings report. Sales of V-8 Juice, Prego pasta sauces, and Pace Mexican sauces all increased, as did sales of ready-to-serve soups. The company attributes some of the soup sale increase to the gravity-fed shelving systems in place in many grocery stores. This negates the need for customers to have to root around at the back of shelves for cans of the desired variety. Sales of Pepperidge Farms baked products increased but so did the marketing expenses associated with that sales increase. Goldfish crackers continued to be a big seller, offset by declines in cookie sales. (I know I did my part with cookie sales.)

Campbell Soup forecasts fiscal year 2008 sales growth of 3-4% over 2007 net sales of $7.867 billion, and diluted EPS growth of 5-7%. The stock closed on 6 September at $36.68, down $1.32 on news of earnings decline.

[photo mccheek]

Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.

Thomas Bishop, editor of BI Research, chose Taseko Mining Ltd. (ASE: TGB) as his favorite for 2007, which rose 44% as of 6/1/07. Please see his original recommendation and his current opinion on the stock.

NutraCea (OTC: NTRZ) is his new stock pick. The advisor explains, "Rice is the most consumed grain on the planet and is a primary food source for 70% of the world's population. However, 65% of its nutritional value is in the bran covering that is routinely stripped off. NutraCea offers a patent technology that preserves these nutrients.

"NutraCea had developed a technology that stabilizes rice bran into an FDA-certified edible product, leaving the nutritional value of the bran intact with a shelf life of one to three years. There is tremendous interest in this highly nutritional product, especially from humanitarian relief organizations, the nutraceutical industry, and both human and animal food companies.

"NutraCea's client roster has 187 customers, including the likes of General Mills, Pepperidge Farms, Con Agra, Archer Daniels Midland, and Purina. In addition, some 500 companies have signed nondisclosure agreements with NutraCea to test using its product in their products.To cut to the chase, NutraCea is facing demand that is expected to exceed its ability to supply it for years to come.