"With the government set to bail out a trillion dollars in debt, what should you buy?" asks Neil George, editor of Personal Finance. "Bond funds are the foundation that steadies your portfolio."
"While the Fed and the Treasury work to bail out a trillion dollars in debt, other governments around the planet seems to be jumping on board this train; similar deals are being cut from the UK to Russia to Japan and beyond.
"The result is a big surge of short-covering and rampant buying as the markets trade and party like it's 1999 again. But is this a good thing?
"Although it might satisfy the political agendas of government leaders, these moves do pretty much nothing to restore normal risk and reward characteristics that make for a productive free market system.
"Meanwhile, bonds are what continue to perform. The rally in stock might continue for a time, but when more and more serious investors and traders begin to figure out the ramifications of the government's heavily expanded role in the formally private sector, it won't take long for another selloff to materialize.
"We see flowing profits from companies in the water sector involved with pipes, pumps, regulators and other equipment," notes Neil George.
In his industry-leading Personal Finance newsletter, the advisor offers a fascinating overview of three companies that help "utilities and other industries provide quality water service."
"Aging pipes are one of the most pressing challenges in the US and beyond. Studies show that in some municipalities, loss from leaky pipes accounts for as much as 10% of water consumption.
"Ameron International (NYSE: AMN) is a pipe manufacturer with operations on every continent. Earnings per share don't show smooth-line growth on a quarterly basis given the cyclical nature of construction. But it does show solid, year-over-year growth.
"There's some price volatility as investors are jarred with increasingly pessimistic domestic construction outlooks, but overseas earnings will continue to bolster the balance sheet.
"Watts Water Technologies (NYSE: WTS) manufactures pumps, valves and controls for a broad array of both consumer and industrial applications.
If you lost money owning shares of financial services companies, odds of getting your money back are remote. To prevail in an arbitration hearing, investors need to prove fraud such as the broker bought stock without their knowledge, bought stock just to generate commissions (churn), bought it knowing that it was unsuitable, or misrepresented the risks of the investment. These claims are all difficult to prove and even if an investor is victorious, there is no guarantee they will get a full refund.
According to New York securities attorney Mark Astarita, arbitration cases take between 14 and 18 months to resolve. Investors win about 50% of the time. "Stocks go down every day," he said when we spoke earlier today. "There needs to be wrongful conduct" to win a case.
Many individual investor trade on hope, fear, greed and gloom instead of strict self-discipline. How many can sell without having remorse as the share price goes higher? How many have it in them to sell at loss without hoping for a rebound?
Well, SmartStops.net helps investors do just that. While there are many advice sites for individual investors available today, this one seems sorely needed by many. It helps investors place easy, set-it-and-forget-it stop-loss orders to ensure profits don't fizzle into thin air. If you want to sell at a specific price without sitting around watching share price movement in real-time all day long, this site can help.
But it isn't just some automatic sell trigger. SmartStops.net has employed proprietary algorithms to make sure investors are advised -- well in advance -- of when to sell a stock or exchange-traded fund to ensure investing remains successful. At the conclusion of each trading day, SmartStops.net sends an email with stop points for both short- and long-term investing strategies on the stocks and ETF it covers.
The good news is that there is a free trial available from the company, and it's also in the process of partnering with online traders like TD Ameritrade to synchronize SmartStop with brokerage accounts.
It's worth checking out if you're into control of your own portfolio, but want the process to be taken care of at least semi-automatically. Besides, we all like a one-year free trial, right?
I've always sensed that women make better investors than men. Call me politically incorrect but when I talk to a woman about investing, she's focused on protecting her savings, not using it to make more money. Women don't think about "beating the market." They think about being safe. They don't want to make a mistake and avoiding mistakes is sometimes what makes all the difference in getting investment returns. And women are less prone to trading and more attuned to buying and holding. As Warren Buffett says, "Activity is the enemy of performance."
Maybe it's our testosterone that drives us to turn investing into a championship sporting event. I don't know. But I've felt that the male competitive spirit often is the very thing that drives us into stupid investments.
Until recently, I couldn't put my finger on how our male "Y" chromosome puts us at a genetic disadvantage to women. However, I recently discovered that Brad Barber and Terrance Odean of UC Davis validated my intuition. They published an article in the February 2001 issue of The Quarterly Journal of Economics titled "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment."
Barber and Odean obtained trading data from a discount brokerage for over 35,000 households and analyzed investing patterns for six years to test whether overconfidence leads to more trading and lower returns. Since in areas of finance psychologists have proven that men tend to be more prone to overconfidence, the genders were separated so that their trading habits could be studied individually.
This is the part of a series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can.
Your broker talks. You listen. At least that is the way it is for most investors. You assume (and she definitely assumes!) she has an expertise that will help you maximize your returns. Sometimes, you almost feel like you should be taking notes.
Based on my experience, this is often not the case. Brokers are not required to have any background in finance or economics and their training is focused primarily on sales.
I thought it might be interesting to turn the tables. Here are some questions you should ask them.
Question #1: What is the most important factor that will affect my returns?
Answer: Your asset allocation, which is the amount of your investments allocated to stocks, bonds and cash. Not stock picking; not mutual fund selection and not market timing. If your broker gets this wrong, get a new broker.
"The organic food industry is surprisingly resilient in an economic downturn," explains Benjamin Shepard, contributing editor with Personal Finance.
He adds, "Mainstream retailers and your corner grocer have been embracing the trend, devoting an ever-growing amount of shelf space to organic foods." Here's a trio of favorites.
"What was essentially a nascent industry in 1997 with $3.6 billion in sales has exploded to a behemoth with almost $14 billion in sales in 2006, according to the Organic Trade Association.
"And barring a major economic disaster worse than we've seen thus far, the industry looks set to continue double-digit growth well into the next decade.
"That's not to say there aren't potential troubles ahead as commodity prices continue to soar. Organic farming techniques tend to be more cost intensive--ironically enough--and transport costs continue to swell.
"But so far the industry has been able to pass the bulk of the higher costs onto consumers, and although sales volumes have dropped off and profits are down, those consumers are as dedicated as ever.
"The soaring cost of food isn't just hitting families in the US; it's hitting everyone around the world," says Neil George. Here, in Personal Finance, he looks at some agriculture, chemical and seed plays.
"During the past five years, consumer food costs have soared by more than 117%. And that momentum is increasing; in the trailing 12 months alone, prices surged more than 52%.
"The mega-investors aren't waiting around; they're buying into other parts of the ag business-from grain elevators to ag processors and distributors-as a workaround for such potential regulation.
"You shouldn't be sitting on your hands, either. This food trend is going to be here for a while, so you better stake your claim while buyers still outnumber sellers.
"One way to invest in this trend is to step into companies that are serving the ag producers. This means the companies developing and selling engineered seeds, as well as chemicals and fertilizer products needed to not just grow crops but more bountiful and, therefore, more profitable crops.
"Global steel producers are thriving, and their stocks are hitting new highs," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger S. Conrad, who add, "But the best is yet to come."
In the industry-leading Personal Finance, the two advisors explain, "We're still in the early stage of a truly global bull market cycle for steel, and the companies best positioned to take advantage are headed a lot higher." Here, they look at their "Iron Five."
"As is the case with other building blocks of economic growth, steel is enjoying explosive demand from the developing world. And with the world expanding as never before, steel companies are literally selling as fast as they can produce.
"In the August 2007, we highlighted five first-rate global steel producers. Since then, they've returned an average of 67.4%, versus a decline of 3.7% for the S&P 500.
"The Iron Five are five picks that we believe are ripe for even bigger gains. Like the last group, these stocks are often volatile. They're also vulnerable to the possibility of a general stock market slide and most of all to a dip in global demand growth, particularly from China.
Baby Boomers, in some cases already facing the 'double demands' of caring for kids and aging parents, have another economic concern, at least for the next phase of the housing cycle: substantially lower household net worth, as a result of declining home prices, so says a Washington-based think tank.
The Center for Economic and Policy Research says the median households head by those ages 45-54 in 2009 will have about 25% less wealth than the similar demographic in 2004. In dollars, household wealth will decline to $113,268 from $150,113.
Further, the above assume March 2008's housing prices hold for 2009: if they don't and prices fall another 10%, household net worth declines by about 35%; 20%, by about 45%, the CEPR said.
Economist Peter Dawson, who is not affiliated with the CEPR or the study, told BloggingStocks part of the problem was "unreasonable expectations regarding home appreciation rates, the belief that 10-15% real estate gains would continue for decades. It got too many adults out of the traditional saving and investing mode and into thinking their home would serve as a major return on investment." Most homes do appreciate, and they can help build wealth, Dawson said, but homeowners must think in terms of a 6-9% average, annual appreciation rate, "which is a more-realistic return for residential dwellings."
I grew up in Miami. Yes, I was born and raised there and am under 40-years-old. One of the few. I love the city. I love the people. I love the Latin flavor of the town, its food and nightlife. I also enjoyed owning and selling a home there in the early 2000s.
Things are different now. Homeowners have been hit with the downside of a strong housing market and have seen prices snapback much greater than some other parts of the country. After seeing a pullback in net worth, Floridians have been tightening their belts this year in some creative and not-so-creative ways.
Today's Bloomberg has an article about how the changes in the Florida housing market are being dealt with by Dolphins fans. Floridians, and Miami residents in particular, are dining out less, seeing fewer movies, foregoing on travel plans, and in some extreme cases, drinking less expensive beer.
According to Bloomberg, Miami real estate prices fell 19.3% year-over-year in January, tied with Las Vegas for the largest drop among 20 metro areas. Some homeowners feeling the pinch are no longer drinking Guinness and Royal Extra beers, but instead buy something domestic and cheaper.
This change in net worth is real and is affecting consumption decisions. While it hurts everyone involved, the process of (trying!) to realign the split between assets and debts is ultimately a healthy one for our country and something, I believe, will help strengthen the U.S. dollar and regain respect for American ingenuity, strength and democratic values around the globe.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com ,a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund, and a proud former Floridian.
"Buy bonds," says income expert Neil George, adding "More and more folks are heading for the door on stocks and are moving toward quality."
The senior editor of Personal Finance explains, "This means bonds-but not just any bonds: government and upper-tier corporate bonds." Here's a trio of favorites.
"We start with AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund (NYSE: AWF). This fund owns a collection of government and government agency bonds, along with some selected high-quality domestic and foreign corporates that add to our stability.
"We aren't just locked into the US and the US dollar; we have exposure to the best of Europe, Asia and elsewhere, too. The average duration (measurement of price against changes in yield) is a conservative but attractive 7.4 years.
"The fund generates a yield just shy of 8% and has given us a positive performance of near 100% during the past five years. It trades at a discount of more than 6% to meltdown value.
"Despite the recent economic slowdown, Hexcel (NYSE: HXL) is seeing its market for carbon-fiber-based aerospace products and parts boom," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
The contributing editor to Personal Finance explains, "And in addition to growing aerospace demand, the firm has growing markets in wind power and nuclear power." Here is his review.
"Hexcel makes lightweight carbon-fiber parts used on modern aircraft designs. New aircraft designs such as the 787 incorporate far higher carbon-fiber content than older planes, so Hexcel is becoming an increasingly important supplier.
"The aerospace demand cycle isn't directly tied to demand for air travel. Airlines and aircraft leasing firms typically plan their purchases of new planes many years in advance; the aerospace cycle is highly visible and longer-term in nature.
"Currently, demand for modern fuel-efficient aircraft such as the 787 Dreamliner from Boeing (NYSE: BA) is booming. Hexcel recently reported fourth quarter results and offered management's outlook for the year ahead. Just over 50% of the company's total sales come from the commercial aerospace market.
"The market is booming: Sales surged more than 21% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006 in constant dollar terms. Hexcel sells to both Airbus and Boeing which have a combined acklog of nearly 7,000 planes that have been ordered but not yet delivered.
"Alternatives may not be an important source of electricity, but they are the fastest-growing subsector in the energy space," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue in Personal Finance. Here, he looks at wind power.
"The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that wind power will grow by more than 7%, encouraged by generous government subsidies. Compare that to just 1.5% annualized projected growth in total electricity demand.
"The world's largest wind turbine producer, Vestas Wind Systems (OTC: VWSYF), fell on hard times back in 2005. It priced some of its turbines too aggressively and saw a surge in warranty claims because of defective components.
"But the stock appears back on track. Warranty provisions are down to 5% of revenues. Profit margins surged 4 percentage points year-over-year because of more rational turbine pricing. Vestas' current backlog stands at EUR4.1 billion (US $6.03 billion), up more than 30% year-over-year.
The Associated Press reports that Congress has reached an agreement on an economic stimulus package. The report does not estimate the total size of the package, but it says that taxpayers will receive rebate checks ranging between $300 and $1,000 per household. Businesses will get tax breaks as well.
And the devil is in the details. Under the tentative plan, families with children would receive an additional $300 per child, subject to an overall cap of perhaps $1,200. Rebates would go to people earning below $75,000 and couples with incomes of $150,000 or less. Workers would have to have earned at least $3,000 in 2007 to receive the rebates.
Businesses would receive $70 billion in tax breaks to invest in plants and equipment, and the plan would give small businesses more generous expensing rules and allow businesses suffering losses now to reclaim previously paid taxes. Furthermore, the plan would raise the size of the mortgages that Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) could buy from $417,000 to $700,000.