Peter Cohan posts
FeedPosted Jul 28th 2009 10:40AM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: General Motors (GM), Politics
Speaking to a congressionally-appointed panel in Detroit, car czar Ron Bloom said that the U.S. government does not want to run the operations of General Motors, and reiterated his belief that we will sell our stake in General Motors as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, CEO Fritz Henderson said that he plans to repay the government's loan within six years and would like to take the company public again in 2010. However, given that more than 80% of the original loan to GM has been converted into equity, repaying the loan is really not an impressive accomplishment -- and even that might not even be possible.
Continue reading Car czar says we'll sell our GM stake soon -- yeah, OK
Posted Apr 20th 2009 5:20PM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), Time Warner (TWX), New York Times'A' (NYT)
The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday, April 21. Don't expect a profit. In fact, I wouldn't expect much of anything. After all, we are talking about a company that makes its money off newsprint. Sad as it might be to say, newspapers are fast becoming dinosaurs in the age of digital information.
According to this source, analysts think that the New York Times will lose about $0.04 per share. That's really bad, considering that the same source says that the company was profitable in the year-ago frame, generating $0.09 per share. It isn't surprising though, is it? Not only has the recession destroyed advertising growth in all forms of media, but newspapers simply aren't looked to anymore as the first source of news. The Internet has disrupted that reputation for good.
Continue reading Earnings preview: New York Times' first quarter not expected to be good
Posted Feb 14th 2009 3:40PM by Trey Thoelcke (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Viacom (VIA), Applied Materials (AMAT), Chipotle Mexican Grill'A' (CMG), Research in Motion (RIMM), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Qwest Communications Intl (Q)
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
Continue reading Earnings highlights: Viacom, UBS, RIM, ArcelorMittal, Lions Gate, McAfee and others
Posted Jan 2nd 2009 10:20AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Indices, DJIA, Financial Crisis
Last year global stock markets lost $29 trillion in value -- falling 42%. And although it does not get much media attention, there is something that investors can do when the stock market moves against them. They can set stop losses on their stocks which limit how much money they can lose. Specifically, if an investor buys a stock at, say, $20 a share, he or she can issue a limit order which requires the broker to sell the stock when it declines to a lower price, say, $18. Such a limit order would limit the investor's loss to 10%.
This comes to mind in considering why the average stock in my investment newsletter gained 15% in 2008 when the S&P 500 fell 38.5%. My monthly newsletter analyzes broad economic trends and bores into specific industries. It also picks three stocks each month for subscribers to consider. During the first half of 2008, the energy and commodities stocks mentioned boosted its performance to +29% through the end of June. Then the bottom began to fall out as commodity prices tumbled and the financial services industry collapsed.
Thanks to the 2% stop loss rule -- which automatically sells any stock that falls 2% below the price at which it was mentioned in the newsletter -- the low point for the year was -1% at the end of October. By the end of 2008, only four of the 36 stocks mentioned remained in the portfolio. However, thanks to a surprising boost in one stock mentioned at the end of October and the three stocks picked at the end of November, the average stock was up 15% by the end of 2008. What were the three best performers?
Continue reading Why investors should use stop-losses
Posted Oct 28th 2008 2:10PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and raves, General Electric (GE), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Chasing Value, Best Stocks for 2008
It was only seven weeks ago that I posted Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again. At the time, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) was trading around $3,850 for the "B" shares.
Well, I think the time for consideration is over and this morning I placed a limit order for the stock. I think the time is right when stories like Berkshire Hathaway at Lowest Close Since Feb. 2007 and my colleague Peter Cohan's Warren Buffett is not perfect are being trumpeted in the media.
For those who have followed "my pal Warren" Buffett for years, or even decades, these cautionary stories of him losing his edge are as silly as trying to predict where the DJIA will be on a given date. As for Peter suggesting that he was early buying into Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) or General Electric (NYSE: GE) three weeks ago, well my gosh, it has only been three weeks!
I understand that the prevailing wisdom seems to be running against the buy and hold approach. But three weeks is kind of short to be passing judgment, don't you think? The DJIA is down 42% while Berkshire is only down 31% from its high of $5059.
Perhaps investors have punished the stock because GS and GE are down. Maybe it is because Berkshire has been buying up railroads and that strategy is less important with oil prices falling 55% since the summer high of $147 a barrel. It could also be because people have lost their minds -- who knows?
Continue reading Chasing Value: Berkshire - you're selling, I'm buying!
Posted Sep 18th 2008 3:30PM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Apple Inc (AAPL), General Electric (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Walt Disney (DIS), Citigroup Inc. (C), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Procter and Gamble (PG), Kraft Foods'A' (KFT)
Is the market getting you down? You want it to go up, right? Well, you better settle in and brace yourself for even harder times as an individual investor. That is, if some pundits are correct about the direction of share prices. According to this CNBC page, a Dow of 8,000 is now in play, and gold might be set to strap a rocket on its back and propel itself up to $1,500 per ounce over time. I'm not sure about the gold, but a Dow of 8,000 almost feels like a logical rest stop at this point (but that might be emotion talking). In the end, none of us can tell the future.
I can, however, share with you a wish. And it isn't just my wish. I'm sure there are others out there who have already said this. And, yes, this wish is coming from someone who owns The Walt Disney Corporation (NYSE: DIS), The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), and General Electric (NYSE: GE). I own them for the long term (except for a separate trading position in GE which completely failed and may turn into another long-term asset), so maybe this wish isn't so mysterious. I want to go back to that "happy" time of October of '87. I want to see the Dow drop over 20% in one day. Preferably, I'd like to see it drop 25%, on Cloverfield-monster-sized volume. How many points would that be? As of this writing, it would be roughly 2,670 points.
What, am I insane? About as insane as the idiots who decided to become risk sponges, I suppose. In all seriousness, we need a crash. We need a reset, a reboot. We need a lot of panic on the street, and a spiking VIX ($VIX.X), to at least begin a bottom formation. If you think we're going to form a bottom without pain, you're wrong. And if you think, at this point, that we can form a bottom without a crash, well then, I won't say you're completely wrong on that count, but I will say that a crash would be better.
Continue reading I want a one-day stock market crash in October
Posted Sep 11th 2008 9:00AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Natl Mtge (FNM),
With its stock down more than 40% in pre-market, I am getting the same sickening feeling I had during that week in March when Bear Stearns' stock made its swan dive into an empty swimming pool. As I said yesterday on CNBC's Power Lunch, investors seemed disappointed that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) had not actually closed any capital raising deals.
Now Lehman -- which lost 7% yesterday -- was down over 40% in pre-market. That's because four analysts "widened loss estimates and cut price targets for Lehman," according to Reuters. And Art Hogan of Jeffries & Co. said that Lehman's best hope -- its plan to auction 55% of Neuberger Berman, may not work. "We are not even sure that the auction process for 55 percent of their asset management group is going to work because the people that win the auction need to find the money to buy it," he told Reuters.
I would not be surprised if Hank Paulson is now wondering why he ever took the job of Treasury Secretary. If Lehman stock keeps dropping 40% a day, there won't be much left by the end of the week. I have to believe that there are all sorts of people on Wall Street wondering whether they simply can't take the risk of continuing to do business with Lehman. And if that happens, Paulson will need to decide whether to let it fail, force a merger or bail it out.
Continue reading Can Lehman last the week?
Posted Aug 9th 2008 4:40PM by Trey Thoelcke (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Hansen Natural (HANS), Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), General Mills (GIS), Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
Continue reading Earnings highlights: Toyota, Cisco, ADM, MGM, General Mills, Warner Music and others
Posted Aug 9th 2008 11:40AM by Trey Thoelcke (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Time Warner (TWX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Whole Foods Market (WFMI), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Procter and Gamble (PG), News Corp'B' (NWS), Marvel Entertainment (MVL)
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
Continue reading Earnings highlights: Fannie Mae, Time Warner, P&G, Playboy, News Corp. and others
Posted Jul 30th 2008 7:00PM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, Apple Inc (AAPL)
Newspapers and blogs have been on fire after Apple reported its earnings with speculation about the health of its chairman and CEO Steve Jobs. Is the pancreatic cancer he dealt with in 2003 back? Why is he so thin?
BloggingStocks' Peter Cohan wrote that "The Times quotes Charles R. Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Company, who suggested that without Jobs, Apple stock could easily lose a quarter of its value in an instant. I agree. And that's why I think it's time for Apple to formally disclose Jobs' condition to shareholders."
That makes perfect sense: Jobs' health is clearly material to Apple shareholders, and it would be good for the company to disclose, in the form of an 8-K, what exactly is going on. It's time to put the rumors to rest.
But here's the problem: How far do you take that? Should companies have to tell their shareholders everything about their top executives' personal lives that could impact their job performance?
This could get messy in a heartbeat. Imagine a proxy statement that, in addition to the usual report of the audit committee, also included an opinion from Dr. Phil on the state of the CEO's marriage, and whether his son's drug problems were depressing him and taking his time and focus away from the company's operations.
If you agree that companies should update shareholders on an important CEO's health, then it isn't such a stretch to suggest that other personal factors impacting job performance should be disclosed too. But who would want to be the CEO of a company where one's personal life is exposed in Perez Hilton-detail in SEC filings?
Posted Jul 6th 2008 10:40AM by Trey Thoelcke (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Ford Motor (F), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), H and R Block (HRB), Campbell Soup (CPB), Kroger Co (KR), Family Dollar Stores (FDO)
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
More highlights from this past week: BP, Discover, Corel, Citigroup, WD-40, MSCI and others
Also, Peter Cohan points out that a bear market means low earnings expectations, and also that negative surprises are likely to outweigh positive ones in the second half of the year. Aaron Katsman, on the other hand, predicts a rebound for earnings in the second half. And BusinessWeek reminds us that cheap stocks -- even with big names such as Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S), and Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA) -- are no bargain if they have no earnings.
Upcoming results to watch for include Alcoa (NYSE: AA), Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG), Marriott International (NYSE: MAR), and General Electric (NYSE: GE).
Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.
Posted Jun 30th 2008 3:33PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Stocks to Buy
The S&P 500 is down 12% this year. But some stocks are doing spectacularly well.
My newsletter, which has been picking three stocks a month for the last five and a half years, has found several of them. This year, it's up 29% so far. That increase is the rise in the average stock mentioned in the newsletter since its initial mention through the end of June. And it uses a 2% stop loss rule which automatically sells any stock that has declined by 2% and charges that decline against the returns.
Here are the three biggest winners:
With oil prices on the rise, these three are likely to benefit. But at some point, their valuations will exceed their earnings growth. So keep a close eye on them.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.
Posted May 16th 2008 10:10AM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Deals, Internet, Viacom (VIA), CBS Corp 'B' (CBS)
So the big news on Thursday was CBS' (NYSE: CBS) hefty $1.8 billion purchase of CNET (NASDAQ: CNET). Douglas McIntyre already explained why this was such a "weird deal" in an excellent article that you can read here. I'd like to expand on that thinking a bit by asking if it should have been Viacom (NYSE: VIA), as opposed to CBS, in the buying seat.
Remember "old Viacom"? Old Viacom was composed of CBS and "new Viacom", the latter being the Viacom of today. I know, confusing, but that's how things are when a big media conglomerate splits in two. Anyway, there was a general mandate given to both companies, one that basically stated the logic of CBS being an entity that focuses on cash flows and dividend increases while new Viacom would focus on acquisitions to promote capital appreciation of the company's stock. Sure enough, the yield on CBS tells the tale perfectly.
So, I have to ask, what gives? I mean, a check of CBS' latest 10K shows that the broadcaster generated $2.2 billion in operational cash flow in 2007. I think paying $1.8 billion for anything, let alone a questionable asset vis a vis CBS' core media competencies, might be too much given CBS' mission to return a lot of value to shareholders over the long-term in the form of dividends.
Continue reading Should Viacom have bought CNET?
Posted Mar 17th 2008 10:10AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: JPMorgan Chase (JPM),
Lost in the flurry of activity over the weekend surrounding The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) is this morning's news that Carlyle Capital, the subsidiary of the Washington-based private equity king Carlyle Group, is 'winding up.' MarketWatch reports that Carlyle Capital, 15% of which is owned by Carlyle Group partners, has more liabilities than assets.
It is interesting that Carlyle can't utter the word 'bankrupt' -- instead preferring the innocuous-sounding term: 'winding up.' But Carlyle shareholders will be left with nothing. And, as I posted, since Carlyle borrowed $32 for every dollar of equity, or $16.6 billion, to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS), the banks who take possession of those MBSs will probably be eager to dump them as fast as possible -- unless they think they will get a better deal by waiting.
But why wait? After all, the Fed lent $30 billion to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) on a non-recourse basis to take over Bear Stearns's MBSs. This means that if Bear's MBSs go bad, the Fed will take the hit. Is there any active market at all right now for MBSs? If so, should the Fed just dump Bear's MBSs and take the hit now? Won't Carlyle Capital's banks do the same? And who will step in to buy all these MBSs? At what price?
Where does this all end?
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.
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