"We sense a turn for the better coming in the oil sector," says Peter Way who tracks 'big money' investors for his Block Trader Oil & Gas Report. Here's his look at the "big block" traders.

"When we use the hedging analysis employed in our stock price forecasts, there are significant differences between some adjacent futures expirations. Here's the current picture:

"Front month (November) hedging suggests likely near-term higher prices. But the December contracts are likely to continue the past 3-month price decline - briefly.

"After that we could see crude rise over a few months into the $115-125 area or even higher, providing a bullish backdrop for most energy stocks. We sense a turn for the better coming in this sector.

"Several issues are selling at attractive prices now. Among major integrated producers, the standout prospect among the big oils is Petrochina (NYSE: PTR).

Continue reading Big block traders bet on oil sector favorites

Big block traders bet on oil sector favorites originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Peter Way selects his buys by following the trading activity of block traders -- those making large, million dollar bets. Here's the latest from his Block Trader Oil & Gold Monitor.

"The volume stock market liquidity-providers are hedging their necessary position risks in ways that foretell declining oil stock prices. Their records on such outlooks in the past are pretty good, so pay attention.

"The million-dollar market-makers are not always right, and here they tend to be a bit early, but it's obvious they can save you some grief and provide a chance to pick up some meaningful extra profit.

"From our recent review of energy ETFs, we also note that the pros' perception seems to be that energy stocks have been bid up too far. Ok, so what to do? Sell the oil holdings? Then where to put the proceeds?

Continue reading Solar & shipping: Bets from big block traders

Solar & shipping: Bets from big block traders originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 May 2008 13:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Some 20,000 or more million-dollar block trades are made each day," says Peter Way in Block Traders ETF Monitor, which assesses the activity of these trades. Here's some current top "big block" bets.

"Since it's these big dollar pressures that move markets, we want to know what they are likely to do next. Our analysis determines what the pros' expectations are for the coming prices of stocks, from the way
they protect investments they have or are making.

"Based on our proprietary analysis of this big block activity, we determine the prospects for each ETF sector to determine where prices will be in the next 3 months. We seek the best balance of upside risk and downside exposures.

"We don't want to buy anything that doesn't offer a net payoff of better than 5% over three months, or an annual rate of +22%. International and global ETFs. and emerging markets still hold appeal, with MSCI Brazil iShares (NYSE: EWZ), the best bet.

"Where's the beef? Must be in MOO, the Market Vectors International Agricultural ETF (ASE: MOO). Prospects for it are the best combined odds & payoffs in the group.

"The ETFs that have been providing the most reliable and productive gains of late have been in commodities. Without any leverage, there are currently a number that appear attractive, given the volume market-makers' appraisals. The PowerShares DB Agricultural Index ETF (ASE: DBA) outranks just about all of the 2,500 issues we cover. PowerShares DB Commodities Index ETF (ASE: DBC) also offers strong buy credentials."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Best bets from big block traders originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 Apr 2008 09:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Block Traders' Oil & Gold Monitor is a unique newsletter that focuses on big block trading activity by institutional buyers. Through a sophisticated analysis of market maker hedge positions, editor Peter Way determines forecasted gains for specific sectors and stocks. Here, he looks at some current market maker favorites in the oil & gas industry.

Peter Way explains, "The reality for crude oil price expectations are reflected by hedging on some $85 billion of crude oil future contracts. Every month in 2008 sees enough likelihood of prices at $80 and above to cause a brisk business in insurance at those levels. In short, the crude oil price picture is one of stability to strength from high levels. As with any natural resource, it's always safer to bet on shortage than oversupply."

Looking at big market maker activity in individual stocks and stocks, the advisor adds, "The value buildup in Exploration & Production companies is clearly already under way and is likely to continue. Expect to see E&P companies acquired by the major integrated companies. Expect to see Oilfield Services companies kept very busy as supply continuity issues grow more severe."

Continue reading Big block buyers bet on oil services

Big block buyers bet on oil services originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 10:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In his Block Trader Oil & Gas, Peter Way follows the big hedge funds and market makers to find out what they are doing. Here's a look at his top oil plays.

He observes, "The hedgers at the NYMEX are protecting their crude oil positions in ways that indicate they see continuing upward pressure on prices."

Based on this hedging activity, he states, "The outlook for the next 12 expiration months that the by major players at the crude oil table suggest little lasting price weakness, and a general level prevailing above $70 over the remainder of the year."

What are the best stocks to buy to bet on the trend for firm oil prices? To decide, Peter Way looks at the buying patterns of market makers -- the big boys on the trading floor.

From their positions, he notes, "Among the large oil producers, China's CNOOC, Ltd. (NYSE: CEO), Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd. (NYSE: CNQ), and Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) all combine historically strong odds and payoffs."

In addition, he notes positive market maker activity among oil exploration & production stocks. He explains, "With significant quantities of low-cost reserves already found, and prospects for additional finds tied up, these companies inevitably will get acquired by bigger producers whose customer demands exceed their yearly reserve findings."

For many, he says, it's just a matter of time. Notable stocks in the stock, he adds, are Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC), Carrizo Oil & Gas (NASDAQ: CRZO), Range Resources (NYSE: RRC), Southwest Energy (NYSE: SWN), Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL), and Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM).

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Block traders target oil exploration and production stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Jun 2007 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Just prior to market's sharp decline, Peter Way cautioned his readers, "There are increasing odds that some market-wide bad times are ahead, and may be getting closer."

Unlike many advisors whose forecasts are based on highly subjective criteria, Way's prediction was based on a specific set of factors that he monitors -- the trading activities of institutional market makers, the positions they establish for their "big fund" clients, and the insurance they take out to hedge these positions. It's a fascinating strategy for more sophisticated investors.

Here, in his Block Trader ETF Monitor he explains, "For some time now, the million-dollar market-makers have sensed that their big fund clients are prepared to flee at a moment's notice. And they know that the exit door is only just so big. Nowhere big enough to let them all through.

Continue reading Big money market makers bet on homebuilders and internets

Big money market makers bet on homebuilders and internets originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Mar 2007 13:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.