When oil was at $65 a barrel, almost no one believed it would double. There were a few nuts making the case, but they were ignored like Galileo was when he said the Earth moved around the sun.

Now, it is hard to find analysts who do not believe oil is going to move over $140 a barrel, and, perhaps above $200. Their reasoning is sound enough. Demand in emerging nations like China and India is still increasing. While crude use in the U.S. may be off slightly, it's not off enough to matter. Supplies may be drying up as fields in the Middle East, Mexico, and Russia age. A political catastrophe in Nigeria or Venezuela could cut production.

Against all that, a case for a sharp drop in oil prices is quietly forming and its logic is powerful but poorly understood.

The first argument that oil is too high is that it has been pushed up in part by speculators rushing to cover bets that crude will fall. It is a bit like a "short squeeze" in stocks. Once the "covering" is done, oil prices will face less pressure on the upside.

Continue reading Finally, a powerful bear case for oil prices

Finally, a powerful bear case for oil prices originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 25 May 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.