This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.

If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.

The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.

Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.

Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks

Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Hey, I admit that I am infatuated with this company and the guy who runs it, Warren Buffett, I just think it has had a good run and I am a watcher at this point, not a buyer. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) was a strong candidate for inclusion on my 2008 buy list, but today is not the day.

I have written volumes about why BRK.B should be included in new portfolios and is a must on every watchlist, but I just do not see it as the bargain I did when I was promoting it at the $3,600 level. Although it does not pay a dividend, most of its stock holdings do, and Warren Buffett has been the gold standard for creating shareholder equity. If 2008 proves to be a shakey year on Wall Street, you may want to own this stock. That however, will be a reflection of the economy more than stock value.

This week it was announced Berkshire Hathaway executed a $4.5 billion buyout of Marmon. Berkshire has done a lot of buying this year. One example being its 8% stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) railroad, reportedly now the largest shareholder. At the same time it has been selling other positions and completed its exit from PetroChina Co LTD ADR (NYSE: PTR) prior to a major pullback in Chinese stocks. Berkshire recognized huge gains from this sale, and it is reflected on the company's bottom line.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Scratch Berkshire Hathaway from the 2008 list

Chasing Value: Scratch Berkshire Hathaway from the 2008 list originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Dec 2007 14:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.

The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.

Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."

Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.

Continue reading Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35%

Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is going to be a journey ending with eight stock picks for 2008, on December 28, 2007. It is my intention to use the closing prices on that day for those eight stocks as the point of departure to publicly track the results and see if I can beat the market again. This year, as measured through October I have done so. I have also been tracking James Cramer's picks and he too has beaten the market to date, but lags behind me (sorry, couldn't resist). While we made some great picks, we both had some dogs as well. Furthermore, I will be the first one to admit that there is some luck involved in the short run.

Last year I beat the market, earning 29%, and it was my fifth straight year doing so after going down in flames with the rest of you when the tech bubble burst. At that time I also had the pleasure of being an Enron investor as well, so I have made plenty of blunders. But I have learned a lot from my mistakes, and hopefully others can learn from them as well as I share my investing adventures and how I turned things around.

Continue reading Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008

Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One of the important reasons to have stock splits when prices get too high is to give the small investor a chance to participate. The recent rise of many company stocks has started to move away from this concept. To the extent that the uninformed private party or small-time speculator is better off not buying individual stocks, this is probably a good thing. Most investors would be better off participating in the stock market through index funds and exchange-traded funds.

This came to mind yesterday as PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) closed at $236.44, meaning that buying a lot of one hundred shares would cost $23,644. This is a lot of money for most people and even for the avid investor, it is a lot to put in one stock. On Monday, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) closed at a mere $126,200 FOR ONE SHARE! But fear not -- you could have bought a single one of Berkshire's 'BRK.B' shares for a paltry $4,229.00. "My pal Warren" has elected not to split the shares of BRK - ever! He believes this promotes shareholders to be longer term investors instead of traders. This has worked out to be true -- sort of -- since due to the high share price, very few shares are traded. Berkshire is an anomaly for another related reason also -- it is the largest company that is not included in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, because there is a required minimum volume of trading, and it does not cross that threshold.

A couple of Stanford grads, now young billionaires, who started a company called Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) have decided to follow Buffett's lead and not split its stock either. Google closed yesterday at $620.11, so you must pay over $60,000 for a hundred shares of this stock. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which closed at $166.98, is more likely to split its shares, maybe 2 for 1, from the talk on the Street, but that is just a rumor and it could change its thinking.

Continue reading Pricey stocks keep small investors out: AAPL, BRK.A, GOOG, ISRG, PTR

Pricey stocks keep small investors out: AAPL, BRK.A, GOOG, ISRG, PTR originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warren Buffett appears to be clearing out Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)'s portfolio of its PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR). shares. Berkshire actually owns the regular shares, not the ADRs. According to Reuters, Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stake to about 3.1%, and since the required filings with the Security and Exchange Commission happen in the rears, Berkshire Hathaway may have disposed of all its shares by now.

When I posted Serious Money: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) cuts PetroChina (PTR) holdings again, I was under the impression that Buffett had maintained a sizable position in the stock. By most standards, this might still be the case, but as a percentage of what Berkshire held, it is clear now that it has decided to unload the stock, siding with its more vocal shareholders that it had no business supporting a company doing business with a Somalian Sudanese government which has demonstrated contempt for human rights and ignored international calls for change.

Although Buffett has been selling, and others may follow his lead, PetroChina shares remain up significantly for the year, and are near all-time highs now. PetroChina closed at $187.59 on Wednesday, climbing nearly 1% on the day.

Disclosure: I own both BRK.B and PTR.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Serious Money: Warren Buffett sells more PetroChina (PTR), but ADRs are up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Oct 2007 19:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the fifth time since its last shareholder meeting, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) has announced that it has sold more shares of Petro-China ADR (NYSE: PTR), trimming back its position from 7.29% to 6.97%.

Berkshire is trading at $121,500 per share as I write this story. The highest price stock on any exchange keeps moving higher as Warren Buffett continues to amaze. Over the last five years he has become a utilities mogul, and this year you can add railroad tycoon to the Oracle of Omaha's many characterizations.

It is not clear why he is selling shares, since his investment is up six-fold in the last five years. However, Berkshire's stake in Petro-China was one of the few areas of contention to ever be raised at a shareholder meeting. This year, because of PTR's business relationship with Somalia Sudan, and the human rights violations in the Darfur region, many shareholders questioned this holding. Buffett seemed to imply he did not want to overtly mix business and politics and thought more could be done from the inside than the outside. Given Buffett's desire to make his moves quietly, it is very possible that he has decided to trim his shares slowly to accommodate concerned shareholders, while not wanting to create negative pressure on the stock price.

Continue reading Serious Money: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) cuts PetroChina (PTR) holdings again

Serious Money: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) cuts PetroChina (PTR) holdings again originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 08 Oct 2007 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This Chasing Value post marks my 400th story for BloggingStocks over the last 18 months. I originally agreed to do about five per month, so I have exceeded what I thought was practical, given my other responsibilities. Through this time I have learned a lot about writing, blogging, editing, the internet, AOL, and have continued to improve my investing acumen, which is a never-ending process. Many of our readers have contributed with some thought-provoking commentary and made this time a more interesting journey. I created the Chasing Value section after discussions with Senior Editor Amey Stone, and it seems to have gathered a modest following. This is the latest installment tracking my 2007 picks.

Through September, the market has benefited from a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, recovering much of August's losses. This has also stimulated oil and gold prices to new highs and caused the dollar to shrink in value overseas. To some degree I think this resulted in foreign stocks rising significantly, most notably Huaneng Power International ADS which derives 100% of its revenue outside the United States. Last December, I made a strong case for HNP; prior to its recent rise I did so again for our Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years.

This year continues to be a stock picker's market, as the volatile James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I have both topped the indices. Cramer made the best and worst picks for the year among those I've been tracking monthly. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the best performer among all the stocks and indices in this review, and has stabilized what might have otherwise been a mediocre showing. It has been a good year for energy and tech stocks. The past few months have been dismal for the financial sector, and anything lingering near its giant shadow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is once again approaching its high of 14,000 and looks like there might be room to exceed it. The housing market and subprime loans continue to worry investors, but unlike last month when an interest rate cut was not a certainty, the market seems to be betting now that another cut is not far off.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22%

Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It just keeps rolling along. "China Inc." keeps beating it's own trade records. It posted a trade surplus of $24.97 billion for August, up from $18.8 billion a year earlier, the customs administration said today, according to CNBC. That's not all, China just passed Canada as our number one trading partner, which although not unexpected, is just another example of the export steam roller that shows no signs of slowing down. All this despite numerous product safety recalls.

We are buying Chinese products at an ever increasing rate. It should also be noted that they are buying our goods and services at an ever increasing rate too. The problem is that they are getting the better end of the deal for now and the gap between imports and exports is increasing. When I wrote Stop blaming China - partners win, whiners lose, I addressed some of these issues, and readers added many more. Some categorized the situation as a Chinese trade war but I take exception to this. I think we are facing very strong Chinese competition and the question is are we prepared?

Our trade deficit is only part of the problem. While China is creaming us with very low labor rates and worse environmental, safety, and legal (piracy) issues, all of which need to improve to level the playing field, there are other issues that we should fear more. That is our failure to compete in producing math, science, and engineering graduates or even having a plan to stimulate improving our graduate rates in these areas. If we do not remain strong in these areas we will be exporting more and more engineering jobs, and worse, the things China imports now might slow down drastically. Many of the things China manufactures now are designed and engineered in the United States. Nothing guarantees this situation will remain as is. It is all very fluid and will become more so. We face the same dilemma with regards to India and eastern Europe.

Continue reading China hits $25 billion record surplus: Exports + ACH, HNP & PTR

China hits $25 billion record surplus: Exports + ACH, HNP & PTR originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Sep 2007 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacationitus. In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.

The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.

Continue reading Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse

Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Through the month of June it seems that it remains a stock pickers' market as Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I all topped the indices. Google continued its strong move upward battling me for the lead, while Cramer lost much of his gains of last month competing to stay ahead of the indices. Cramer is sticking with his NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) pick, and it continues to drag him down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my sixth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

There seems to be growing support for large cap stocks which analysts have been talking about but now might be starting to show up for real. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, June seemed more cautious then May except in foreign markets as indicated by the strong rise in my Chinese picks. Investors moved the S&P 500 index to new highs.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jul 2007 19:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I was recently asked about a potential value opportunity in a certain Russian stock and thought I would share my current view. I am not ready to invest in Russian stocks. I do not trust the current government to protect investors. I do not expect the court system to play fair. I do not expect the rules, be they legal, banking, ethical, politcal or anything else to stay the same two days in a row. I have no confidence in Russia and everything I know about the subject leaves me with too many questions and not enough answers. The government of Vladimir Putin practices it's own ambiguous economic system.

From the International Herald Tribune: "President Vladimir Putin sought to reassure investors and foreign leaders that Russia remained committed to free trade and investment for businesses that work here, in spite of a chill in political relations with the West. But Putin said "Russia would integrate with the world economy on its own terms - and possibly not by embracing the current rules of the global economic order."

In China we aquired the stocks of four companies: Aluminum Corp of China ADS (NYSE: ACH), Huang Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP), PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (NYSE: PTR), and Shanda Interactive Entertainment (NASDAQ: SNDA). In India we own ICICI Bank (NYSE: IBN) and last week acquired Tata Motors (NYSE:TTM) We only buy stocks of companies listed on U.S Exchanges.

Continue reading Serious Money: China yes, India yes, Russia not yet

Serious Money: China yes, India yes, Russia not yet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 18 Jun 2007 18:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Ooooh yes, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) is a value, and it will be all the more so if this market takes a summer swoon, or global markets shift, or big caps take the lead. If you are just starting out and want to have a diversified solid foundation, this is a good stock to start with. You will also be a part of a special club receiving the golden words of Buffett in the annual report, although they are on the BRK website for all to see already.

Buffett will not be able to turn BRK.A or B into a 10-fer or a 5-fer over the next few years, but he can beat the overall market, and if he does it again it would surprise no one. According to AOL Money & Finance, this stock has a P/E three points below the DJIA, a low enough P/S and P/B that would make it pop-up on all my stock screens (except that I want dividends so it never has), consistent expansion of its ROE, and low debt -- and that spells value to me.

• Price-to-earnings P/E: 14.92 (TTM)
• Price-to-sales P/S: 1.71 (TTM)
• Price-to-book P/B: 1.55 (TTM)
• Price-to-cash-flow P/CF: 14.03 (TTM)
• Return-on-equity ROE: 11.02 (TTM)
• Long Term Debt-to-Equity (MRQ) 0.3
• Dividend Yield 0.0%

This five year chart is indicative of a pattern with BRK.B (B-Shares are almost affordable, A-Shares are not) where the stock trades in a tight range, moves up to catch up with earnings and equity expansion and then trades within a tight range for a few more years. My rationalization for this is that the stock is as boring as Buffett's acquisitions (his famous words) and because of its high share price, low trading volume (it does not even meet S&P threshold for inclusion) and lack of startling press releases, there is always a time lag between the build-up of equity and the market's appreciation of same. However, at the first sign of market weakness this safe haven may jump off the $3600 share price it has been straddling for almost a year.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now

Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 11 Jun 2007 12:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The month of May was all about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com has come roaring back after a poor showing in April. Google also made a strong move upward. After languishing for three months it has come close to its all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my fifth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

The DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, May was not a time of caution. Investors moved everything upward with even the S&P 500 index reaching a new high. Cramer took back the lead and for the first time the indices lagged.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through April 30, 2007 after many companies have reported their first quarter earnings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJAI) passed the 13,000 watermark and set new record highs. We are still in the midst of earnings season. This is my fourth follow-up report. Not enough time to prove much but plenty of time to make or lose some money. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

This month an interesting trend took hold. Even with the indices reaching new highs and many stocks doing so as well, it seems there must be some caution in the wind. This is the first month that my value approach lead the pack and Cramer's approach, whatever it is, took a back seat. Not only is Cramer lagging each of the indices, but four of his six speculative and growth picks were down while all three of his value picks were up. Google seems to be dead in the water for now, having reported tremendous growth and beating analyst's guestimates again by a wide margin, it still has not gained any traction even in an up market.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth

Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 May 2007 16:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through March 30, 2007 bringing the first quarter to a close. Earnings season is now upon us. It is my third follow-up report. Three months is a short time in the market for long term investors, and an eternity for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 2% after two months but now stands at: +2.82% an improvement. Adding the dividend portion (.66 x .25) of 0.165 brings Cramer's gain to 2.99%. Last month it was his speculative stocks that supported his gains. This month they pulled back and his gains came from his best pick so far, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
• The Indexes remained slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%. Adding it's portion of the dividend yield (1.8 x .25) of .45 brings it up to a gain of 0.85 for the quarter.
• My picks are down for the year, but improved from -1.9% last month, to a negative of -0.61% for the quarter. Adding the dividend portion of (3 x .25) of .75 brings my quarter to a slight gain of 0.14% which is negligible. My picks are the most volatile now with super gains over 25% from Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and super losses from PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Both companies are in the same industry, but PetroChina's profits are more closely regulated.
• Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has moved up for a smaller loss: -1.0% Although it has been an erratic three months Google has managed to float within a tighter range lately.

Not much change since last month. Since the quarter has concluded I added one quarter of the the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and three month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK).

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops

Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through February 28, 2007 which has come and gone all too quickly. It is my second follow-up report. Two months is a short time in the market for a buy and hold guy like me, and ages for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:.

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% last month but now after two months is: +2%. Interestingly it is his speculative stocks that are up the most. Best pick so far Level 3 communications.
• The Indexes all reversed from positive territory to slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%.
• Liber return is negative at -1.9% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina which is down 22%. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point. Best pick so far Valero Energy.
• Google provided an +8.1% return in January and has since slipped for a YTD loss: -2.9% Among all considerations Google had the poorest showing in the last month going from first to last.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramers picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Company and The Home Depot.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and two month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top

Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 Mar 2007 14:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

So January 2007 is already history and this is my first follow-up report. I recognize that from an investment perspective it is almost meaningless to gain any insight into the quality of my stock selections after only one month.

In truth, even a year is an arbitrary length of time to know anything for sure. On one occasion I sold Boeing (NYSE: BA) after holding it about 18 months, shortly before its rise, when its new CEO exercised some ethically and morally 'poor secretarial judgment'. Then I watched the stock double in quick order.

If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• Google provided an 8.1% return heading into reporting season. It has since slipped.
• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% which was very good. There might be some Cramer bump but if there is it will fade and for now he has done great.
• The Indexes were all in positive territory.
• Liber return was slightly negative for January -0.55% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point and believe it will be up this year.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividend yields to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins

Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Feb 2007 17:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

At least in the short run, PetroChina Company Ltd ADR (NYSE:PTR) is down for the year and may affect my stock pick average when I report the first month of results next Monday. When I wrote about PTR: PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007 and included the stock as one of my seven picks for the year, I actually stated "I love this company," and I cautioned that it was close to an all-time high. After three weeks the shares are down. In the absence of this pick the rest are doing fine; the other six are up so far.

I'm into the stock at $44 and $55 per share in two different portfolios and have made this stock a mainstay that I cannot imagine selling, for reasons that you can read about in any one of my numerous stories on the company over the last eight months. It closed Tuesday at $127.17 per share, up $3.91 but down from $142.12 on December 28, 2006. For the year I still expect PTR to be up, but the slow start is a reminder, and when I look at my watch list there are picks I would have been less emotional about.

I am writing this story not so much about PTR but to call your attention to the hazard of falling in love with a stock. It is an investment, and besides your family, falling in love is a mistake, in particular with an investment because it can cloud your judgment. (This happens with family too, but that's another story.) If you have been involved with the stock market and investing in general, I'm sure you may have heard this before. Success itself can cloud your judgment as well. In the case of PetroChina, the stock has moved progressively higher, even when other Chinese stocks have faltered over the past few years. I am sticking with this pick because of its products and services, business financials and management -- and cautioning all to leave out the emotion when making investments.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure to read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Falling in love with PetroChina may cost me originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 24 Jan 2007 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday I put my reputation on the line by recommending seven stocks that I think will outperform the market in 2007, You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!. In the past few years I have made some great calls and doubled, sometimes even tripled the market averages, helped along by stocks like PetroChina, (NYSE: PTR) acquired for $44 and closing yesterday $142.12; Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) acquired at $7.70 and closing yesterday at $96.73; Merck (NYSE: MRK) acquired at $32.00 rising to $43.55, and Time Warner Inc. acquired at $12.10 and settling in last night at $22.00. There were many others.

This all followed the same disastrous 2001 collapse that most investors suffered. I wish I would have listened to James Cramer when he told me in a personal email that telecom stocks were going down hard. Like any of us, he is not always right -- but he was way right about that!

It has been said, and is worth repeating,"experience is what you get when you were expecting something else." We all got way too much experience in 2001. Since that time I have recovered all of my losses and then some, but it took a lot of work, a lot of study, and certainly some luck. Let's just say I'm older and wiser.

In making yesterday's recommendations I tried to stay away from get rich quick notions and chose stocks that I believe have strong upside potential with protection against downside risk. All seven of my 2007 picks are well known companies to most stock market investors. They are all companies that I feel are buy and hold propositions.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended:

1. The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): $40.02
2. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK): $33.02
3. The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD): $39.73
4. Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP): $36.00
5. PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR): $142.12
6. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) $22.00
7. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $51.61

I will report back each month with the closing stock price as of the 28th of each month. If I am wrong it will be very public. Although I did not recommend jumping in each of these stocks at these prices immediately, I will use them for tracking purposes, come what may.

Disclosure: I own shares of DUK, HNP, PTR, TWX and will likely own DOW, HD, and VLO prior to next months report.

Happy New Year!

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Lets discuss your picks for 2007

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Following 007 takes courage - but here goes! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Dec 2006 15:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.