If you are looking for clues telling you which stocks have a good chance of increasing in value, you might want consider watching what insiders are doing. After all, talk is cheap, but when insiders put their own money on the line, you should sit up and take note.

Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) topped the insider-buying charts for the week ending July 9th as insiders snapped up 21,000,000 shares of company stock at a market value of $125,160,000. During the past six months, insiders have increased their overall holdings in the company by 0.18% and now own 38.97% of PPC stock.

Bright and early on this fine Wednesday morning, JPMorgan downgraded Tyson Foods (TSN) to Neutral from Overweight. The brokerage gave four reasons for the downgrade: valuation, recent rises in corn and hog prices, a looming supply increase from competitor Sanderson Farms (SAFM), and uncertainty from Pilgrim's Pride.

All of these reasons are perfectly valid for the downgrade, but I want to focus on the valuation aspect of the downgrade. Technically, TSN faces overhead resistance in the $14 region, which is significant as the shares are currently ascending through the upper $12 region. The $14 level spurned the shares earlier this year, sending them into a steady decline back to support at the $11 region.

Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) reported, according to this source, a decent quarter in terms of bottom-line profit, but it wasn't enough to satisfy Wall Street. Sales rose almost 10% to $7.2 billion. And net income on an adjusted basis came in at $0.15 per share. That represented pretty good growth over last year's profit figure. But you know, it didn't really matter for two reasons. One, the call by the analyst community was for four more pennies. Two, guidance was not tasty at all. Management sees further pressures coming, and the aforementioned source mentions that the fulfillment of debt obligations is an issue.

A tough environment for chicken has been plaguing Tyson. Not only that, but a look at the company's press release shows that operational cash flow took a huge dive over the last twelve months, dropping roughly 58% to $288 million. There was no free cash for the year to support the dividend obligations. That isn't too encouraging.

The bottom line on Tyson, which competes with the also-struggling Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), is that it isn't a buy, at least not from where I sit. I know there will be investors out there who will see some value in the situation, but I cannot, at least not at this time. No, I'm not saying that I think Tyson will disappear. However, there are better ideas out there if you're looking to play the supermarket game over a long-term basis. There's Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), to name some examples. As I write this, Tyson's stock is down over 11%. Might we see a bounce in the next few days? Sure. But I'm not brave enough to step in with this one.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL) closed at $28.44 Tuesday. HRL is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on November 25. HRL overall option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Sanderson Farms (NYSE: SAFM) closed at $27.49 Tuesday. SAFM filed a $1 billion shelf registration for common and preferred shares on October 9 on the anticipation of using the proceeds to fund acquisitions. SAFM November option implied volatility of 91 is above its 26-week average of 58 according Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), the largest chicken company in the U.S., closed at $1.40 Tuesday. PPC announced on October 27 lenders have agreed to provide continued liquidity under credit facilities. PPC December option implied volatility is at 239 according to Track Data, suggesting large price fluctuations.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), a processor of packaged meats, closed at $9.49 Tuesday. SFD November option implied volatility of 166 is above its 26-week average of 88 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Tyson (NYSE: TSN) closed $8.05 Tuesday. TSN is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on November 11. TSN November option implied volatility is at 133, December is at 124; above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB) to Outperform from Market Perform as they find AB's risk/reward attractive given its attractive long-term business model. Wachovia upgraded Watson Pharma (NYSE: WPI) and Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Outperform from Market Perform citing valuations and positive drivers for generics that include patent expirations and market share expansion.
• UBS raised Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) to Neutral from Sell on expected pricing power following the HBOS (OTC: HBOOY) acquisition.
• Otter Tail (NASDAQ: OTTR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• GFI Group (NASDAQ: GFIG) was upgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Sell.
• Merrill upgraded Logitech (NASDAQ: LOGI) to Neutral from Underperform.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded shares of Lloyds TSB Group to Underweight from Neutral on capital concerns and believes the HBOS acquisition is not in the best interest of shareholders.
• Stephens downgraded Universal Truckload (NASDAQ: UACL) to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation and concerns about a slowdown in the flatbed sector. The firm's target remains $28.

This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.

Pilgrim's Pride's home roots in the small town of Pittsburg, Texas, perhaps explain why it is the largest chicken producer in the U.S., even ahead of competitor Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) in Arkansas. In 1946, Lonnie "Bo" Pilgrim dressed like a standard Pilgrim and tucked a small chicken under his arm when completing orders for customers. He gave away free chicks when he sold chicken feed as a way to expand his market for chicken feed. As of today, Pilgrim's Pride operates chicken processing plants in 13 states and Mexico and processes 44 million chickens per week, resulting in 9 billion pounds of chickens per year and over 528 million chicken eggs per year.

Pilgrim's Pride's operations are almost exclusively located in the U.S. close to its farms, and it has become the second-largest chicken supplier to Mexico as well. It does have processing plants in Mexico and Puerto Rico. Along with such huge chicken-producing numbers come a few problems, as a huge product recall in 2002 due to Lysteria contamination killed seven people and made over 40 customers sick. In 2004, more than 24,000 hens were destroyed after a strain of avian flu was found in Hopkins County, Texas.

Pilgrim's Pride is still based in the same location where it was founded over 60 years ago, but today stands as a completely vertically-integrated company: it owns every process and facility from egg to table, as it says. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Publix Super Markets (OTC: PUSH) and KFC, a division of Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) ,can be counted as some of Pilgrim's Pride's largest customers.

Be sure to check out more Big Company, Small Town posts.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYE: AIG) reported a loss of $7.8 billion but raised its dividend.
• Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NYSE: BRL) missed earnings estimates and lowered its guidance.
• D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) posted a larger-than-expected Q2 loss on further write-downs.
• Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) posted its third straight quarterly loss on the continuing housing slump.
• Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) lower-than-estimated Q1 profit led shares to a 52-week low.
• Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) net income dropped 71% on a fall-off of M&A activity and a write-down.
• MGM Mirage Inc. NYSE: MGM) Q1 profits were dragged down by decreased consumer spending.
• Pilgrims Pride Corp. (NYSE: PPC) widened its Q2 loss due to the rising cost of feed.
• Playboy Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: PLA) swung to a Q1 loss as revenue declined in all units.
• Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) net income and revenue fell in the first quarter.
• Scotts Miracle Gro Co. (NYSE: SMG) blamed a slow start to spring for its Q2 profit decline.
• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: TEVA) posted a Q1 loss due to a charge.
• THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) posted a loss for its fourth quarter and revenues flat for the year.
• Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) posted lower-than-expected Q4 results due to the U.S. economic slump.
• Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG) Q2 loss widened and it suspended its quarterly dividend.

While Scotts Miracle Gro Co. (NYSE: SMG) Monday blamed a slow start to spring and recalls for a drop in second-quarter profits, Pilgrims Pride Corp. (NYSE: PPC) said its second-quarter loss widened due to rising feed costs and a restructuring charge. And analysts expect lower consumer spending on leisure travel and a drop in business travel to drag on Avis Budget Group Inc. (NYSE: CAR) first-quarter results when it reports on Tuesday.

Discounting charges, Marysville, Ohio-based Scotts reported it made $77.7 million, or $1.19 per share for the quarter ended March 29, two cents better than the forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Revenue fell 4% to $958 million. The company also warned that profits would likely fall below Wall Street forecasts for the year.

Pilgrim's Pride, the nation's largest chicken producer, lost $111.5 million, or $1.67 per share, in the three months ended March 29 compared with a loss of $40.1 million, or 60 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose to $2.10 billion. Analysts had expected a loss of 81 cents per share on $2.09 billion in sales. The company said feed costs would probably push the company to another loss in the current quarter as well.

Analysts expect Parsippany, New Jersey-based Avis to break even on a per share basis, on $1.37 billion revenue. In last year's first quarter, the company posted profit of 12 cents per share. It's unclear how much of an effect the current economic conditions will have on Avis's full-year 2008 results, but in April, rival Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTZ) managed to post an adjusted quarterly profit that beat Wall Street predictions.

Shares of Scotts ended the day up 1.2%, but fell nearly 12% in after-hours trading to $30.00. Pilgrim's Pride fell less than 1% during the day, then another 1.1% after hours to $23.59. Avis also continued its slide into after-hours trading, down to $13.49.