On Saturday of this past weekend, I was discussing the domestic box-office potential of Summit Entertainment's Twilight with a friend of mine (we didn't discuss the ranking potential since one didn't need to be a clairvoyant to see a first-place showing in the film's immediate future).

I initially proffered a $100 million take in terms of a prediction, but then backed down and decided that $80 million might be more like it. I wasn't sure if Twilight, even with all its hype, could possibly propel itself to a number that was recorded in three digits. Well, in an overall sense, I was completely wrong. Although the movie didn't make $100 million, I still obviously thought that it was stronger than it turned out to be.

According to published estimates from Boxofficemojo at the time of this writing (final numbers are due later), Twilight pulled in around $70 million. Don't get me wrong, that's a big take, and the movie did beat Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Quantum of Solace, which came in second. But, according to the daily estimates, the Friday-through-Sunday numbers show a decidedly negative trend.

It's interesting, too, because when I saw the $35 million Friday figure, I really thought that something higher than $70 million would be the end result. On Saturday, however, Twilight's take dropped over 40% when compared to its opening day, and on Sunday, the drop was almost 35% compared to Saturday.

Without a doubt, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) really nailed it with its latest computer-cartoon sequel, Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. According to estimates at Boxofficemojo, the film, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), was number one at the box office over the weekend at domestic theaters.

That was expected. But I have to give kudos to the studio's marketing department for improving the previous film's opening weekend. Madagascar, which was released in May 2005, took in $47 million during its opening weekend. As of this writing, Escape 2 Africa has been credited with about $63 million. Considering that this isn't the summertime, I thought the sequel's debut performance was pretty cool.

And here's another equally cool fact: if the estimates hold, then Escape 2 Africa's first-weekend take will be slightly higher than Kung Fu Panda's opening weekend of $60.2 million. You've got to call that a success. Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Pixar brand definitely better take notice, especially if DreamWorks Animation can consistently put out blockbusters during both the summer and fall.

Here's an idea for you: Disney (NYSE: DIS) should consider buying Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS). No, I didn't come up with the concept. It came from Martin Peers over at The Wall Street Journal (subscription required). Although this is an interesting idea, I can tell you that as a Disney shareholder, I absolutely disagree with it. In fact, I have to wonder if any Disney shareholder in their right mind could possibly be supportive of such an idea.

Buy EA? The author must have been kidding, right? Honestly, that would be one of the worst things that CEO Bob Iger could do. I really don't think it would happen, but then again, I never thought we'd see a hellish financial implosion based on a crisis of confidence precipitated by the popping of a housing bubble to end all housing bubbles.

Yep, strange days beget strange things, and the notion that the Mouse should invest in EA is perhaps one of the stranger beasts to walk Wall Street. Although the author does make a case that EA is cheap, I shudder to think about how Iger would possibly integrate the publisher into his conglomerate. Disney already has made significant investments in the video-game industry, and many of the games that the company releases are based on intellectual properties that have already been incubated in other parts of the business. Imagine if Disney had to deal with a larger, more complex pipeline, one that would obviously contain a lot of properties that could not be used in, say, the theme parks or by the movie studio. Personally, I think it would be a distraction to Disney.

General Electric (NYSE: GE) didn't see a huge reaction to its earnings on Friday. I think the stock closed up by only a couple pennies. But at least its NBC Universal asset scored a hit with Hellboy II: The Golden Army. According to Boxofficemojo, it topped this weekend's domestic box office with a gross of more than $35 million. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock, however, is close. That film was in second place with a haul of $33 million. By the time final figures are out, Hancock could find itself in first place, but I doubt that's going to happen. This really seemed to be Hellboy's weekend. I have to say, though, that Hancock did much better than I thought it would for its second weekend at bat. The film will easily pull in over $200 million, maybe $250 million, before all is said and done.

Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D was number three with over $20 million. Not a particularly great debut, I don't expect too much action in the coming weeks from this one. Now, Wall-E is an important project for Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholders since it is another effort from Pixar. Investors are still trying to figure out if the price paid for Pixar will be ultimately worth it. Wall-E is doing pretty well; it came in fourth over the weekend, and its total box-office take so far is about $162 million. Incidentally, Eddie Murphy failed horribly with his film Meet Dave. The movie, from News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), came in seventh with a little over $5 million. I didn't even know it was in the marketplace.

GE and Universal scored again at the multiplex with Wanted, which came in fifth. Its cumulative gross is now more $110 million. See that? GE can leverage quality content to bring in the revenues. If NBC Universal can synergize better with hits like these, then perhaps there won't be such pressure in terms of dumping the asset. For now, though, NBC Universal is a show-me division, and it better keep the hits coming to placate the board.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

Well, I was wrong about Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock. Sure, I knew it was going to be the number-one movie over the Fourth of July holiday period, but come on, who didn't know that? As of this writing, Boxofficemojo estimates that the Will Smith picture took in $66 million over the three-day timeframe. However, Hancock had opened earlier in the week, and I thought that, by the time all was said and done, the film's cumulative gross by now would have been well over $100 million. Well, the cume now stands at around $107 million. I was thinking more along the lines of $125 million and above for a total tally by this point. Hancock came in a little weaker than expected, considering what seemed to be a very awesome cinematic experience as communicated by the marketing campaign.

Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E came in second over the weekend with around $33 million. The Pixar cartoon now has about $128 million to its credit. Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, was third with over $20 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Get Smart and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda were fourth and fifth, respectively. Here's an interesting note on Get Smart. Even after the holiday weekend, and after having been out in the marketplace for a few weekends, it still has yet to reach a total gross of $100 million. As of now, it has a little over $98 million in the bank. That number may change a bit when final figures are in, but in this day and age, when a summer movie with such star power (it stars Steve Carell) doesn't reach $100 million by the second weekend or sooner, it can't be considered super blockbuster material.

Well, it wasn't a terribly exciting box-office weekend. Frankly, I thought there would be more fireworks for the Fourth from these films. And as for all the stocks mentioned here, the bear market will probably keep them weak. The most direct play on the movie business is obviously DreamWorks Animation, and I would wait for that one to come in more before thinking about buying.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) has an interesting weekend coming up. The new Pixar film, Wall-E, opened today. While everyone expects it to be a hit, no one knows yet how big a hit it will ultimately be.

Pixar, of course, is a major brand in computer-generated cartoons. Its major competition is DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). The latter's most recent hit, Kung Fu Panda, opened earlier this summer box-office season with a $60.2 million first-weekend take, according to Boxofficemojo. Last year, Ratatouille debuted with a first-weekend take of $47 million. In my mind, for Wall-E to please shareholders and show Disney that its Pixar brand is a reliable money machine, the animated feature needs to do at least $60 million. It can't do anywhere near the Ratatouille flick since that was an example of weak opening performance, in my opinion.

I read a great review on Wall-E at the Hollywood Reporter. The author heaps praises on the film and says that Pixar's streak of success is intact. That's pretty pleasing. Yet, the review also worries me to some extent (I'm a Disney shareholder). The author says that there isn't a lot of dialogue in the picture (I guess the robot characters don't speak) and that it might be such a smart project that some moviegoers might not fully appreciate it. In this competitive timeframe, that doesn't make me feel good. I'd rather the film be simple blockbuster material for the popcorn crowd. I don't want the young kids in the audience to feel their attention spans being strained in the least. I'm not looking for art in this case. I just want my company to make as much money as possible.

Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.



5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures
The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.

5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros.
Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.

Look out, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) -- your arch enemy, Disney (NYSE: DIS), wants to be king of animation at the cinema over the next few years. Actually, I suppose other companies who produce animation, such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), should watch out as well.

According to a Disney press release, ten cartoons will be released through 2012. The lineup sounds pretty impressive. We'll be seeing the third Toy Story movie in the summer of 2010, and two years later, audiences will be revving up for a Cars sequel. During the holiday season of 2011, a Pixar fairy tale called "The Bear and the Bow" will be weaving its magic (hopefully) in the multiplexes, which is interesting, because during the summer of that same year, Pixar will be releasing something called "newt", so fans will get two Pixar properties three years from now. Other animated projects include Bolt, which will use the voice talents of John Travolta and Miley Cyrus, and The Princess and the Frog.

Whew, there was a lot of cool intellectual properties in that press release, and as a Disney shareholder, I am excited at the prospects. But this isn't just about a bunch of cartoons, my friends -- not at all. This is a huge test for Bob Iger. Was he correct in spending billions to acquire Pixar and its talent trust, specifically John Lasseter? Mr. Lasseter, the chief creative officer for both Walt Disney Animation and Pixar Animation Studios, has a lot of pressure weighing down upon his shoulders. Not sure if he would actually admit that, but he does. He's the man who's supposed to see Disney's animation assets into the future, to bring Disney's animation brand back to prominence. Many people thought that Disney was losing its way in terms of traditional animation; to add insult to injury, some were questioning whether Pixar, when it wasn't part of Disney proper, was what Disney used to be -- innovative in its creativity, obsessed with quality, and driven to provide a moving experience for animation fans whenever they sat before the silver screen.

So, we'll see whether those billions invested in the Pixar acquisition truly will reap stellar returns on invested capital. It will be the performance of the non-Pixar films that will tell the tale.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.

DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) is one of those fun stocks to own. Who wouldn't be happy pinning their portfolio's fortunes to Shrek and a bee character based on Jerry Seinfeld? Yep, this is a play on Hollywood animation; the question is, how did DreamWorks do for its fourth quarter and fiscal year?

DreamWorks Animation can be very competitive with Disney (NYSE: DIS) and its Pixar brand when it comes to computer cartoons. For that matter, it is competitive with others like Sony (NYSE: SNE), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) -- they've all had computer cartoons in the marketplace. This latest earnings report proves it. Revenues for Q4 increased 42% to $290 million, and earnings came in at $0.98 per diluted share -- this compares to a loss of $0.20 per diluted share in the year-ago period. Revenues for the full year truly were animated -- they rose 94% to $767 million. Earnings for 2007 equaled $2.17 per diluted share. Talk about blowing away the previous year's stat -- 2006 earnings per stub came in at a mere $0.15.

Man, I remember loving THQ (NASDAQ: THQI). For a while, the company and stock were doing well; I recall watching it go from $20 a stub to $36 in recent times. But you know the old adage -- what goes up, must -- or, may, at least, when it comes to stocks -- come down. And down THQ came. Its recent quarter shows just how low things have gotten.

In the video game publisher's latest quarter, net revenue increased 7% to about $510 million. Kind of disappointing for a video game concern to post a top-line increase in the single digits for a holiday quarter that is supposed to be in the thick of the new console cycle. After all, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, and the juggernaut known as the Nintendo Wii are all stoking the flames of gamer interest. But the real disappointment can be found in the horrible bottom-line performance. Yes, even though THQ is the home to SpongeBob SquarePants, not even that wily, sweet, pineapple-dwelling creature could offset increased costs and charges related to canceled games (say good-bye to the Juiced and Stuntman franchises) to save THQ from posting a whopping 76% drop in diluted income from continuing operations: 21 cents per share versus 88 cents a year earlier.

Look no further for the biggest Money Winner of the year ... why, it's Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) Steve Jobs of course, recently named the number-one most powerful businessperson by Fortune magazine. Take that, Mr. Gates!

In 2007, the man with the scruffy facial hair and the omnipresent black turtleneck celebrated the 30th year of Apple, which was incorporated in 1977, and his tenth year since returning to the firm after a hiatus of nearly ten years. It was a banner year for multiple reasons including, but not limited to:

• The changing of the corporate name from "Apple Computer" to "Apple Inc.," a better reflection on the company's broad-based business.
• The launch of Apple TV, which can play video content downloaded from a computer onto a television. AAPL is expected to be able to unload between 1 million and 1.5 million devices during its first year of release. The 40 GB version currently retails at $299; the 160 GB is $399.
• The wildly successful unveiling of the iPhone, which saw surging demand despite an initial price tag of nearly $600. Time magazine named the device the "Invention of the Year" and sales topped even the most aggressive estimates.
• The debut of Leopard, a new operating system for Mac.

This summer was a very profitable one for box offices nationwide, with four movies grossing over $300M, and at least another nine grossing over $100M -- signaling in a big way the resurgence of the movie industry, which had been struggling for the last few years.

The four big $300M+ winners of the summer were Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) 'sSpider-Man 3, which grossed $336M in the U.S., Viacom, Inc (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount's Shrek the Third, which grossed $320M, Transformers, also from Paramount, which grossed $311M, and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)'s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which grossed $308M.

Three of the four were third installments of well established big-budget franchises, so their success is hardly shocking, but the Transformers success clearly marks the start of a new blockbuster franchise (the release date of the sequel has been announced -- June 26, 2009). The robot-action extravaganza, which was directed by Michael Bay, was definitely a surprise, as I remarked in my summer movie preview that Transformers "has flop written all over it... there cannot possibly be enough substance in a story about alien robots that transform into vehicles to make this a hit with the general public." I was wrong -- very wrong. The movie killed at the box office, grossing over $330M on a $150M budget, and prompting a re-release on IMAX, which opened last week.

C'mon, take a chance -- what's a few hundred million between friends? Actually, Hollywood can be very unfriendly. Directors and producers like to take chances, stars love to explore their range, and everyone likes to work on something cool, but the truth is, most studios are run by attorneys. Risk adverse, bottom line, aggressive, egotistical attorneys. And if I was working for a studio, I would probably be getting chewed out right now.

Hollywood bets on success. So what to do? Take all your biggest hits and go for repeat performances. After all, it is the movie business, so sequels were the order of the day, or rather the order of the weekend, almost every weekend. That said, Hollywood had its best summer ever.

Pirates III, Harry Potter V, Fantastic Four II, Shrek III, Spiderman III, Bourne III, and Superman whatever laid the foundation for a HUGE summer run. Just last week, I posted Rupert Murdoch & Homer Simpson are winners -- look for sequels. While The Simpsons was not necessarily a sequel -- Homer chastises the audience for paying to see a television show at the movies -- we were essentially seeing The Simpsons #301 (after 19 or 20 years on television). The Mr. Bean movie and Jet Li's War might as well be sequels. Add to that some formulaic comedies and all was good in Tinseltown. The top 12 movies took in $90.2 million this weekend, up 7% from the same weekend last year, when Invincible opened at No. 1 with $17 million.

One charmer that was not a sequel, Ratatouille, continued Pixar's hit parade. Credit Pixar for continued originality, though I think it has developed its own elixir for success. Pixar is the Magic Studio to Disneyland's Magic Kingdom.

All told, the movie studios did quite well -- my colleague Jonathan Berr commented favorably on Disney (NYSE: DIS) earlier today (Disney (DIS), United Tech. (UTX) and other 'slacker' stocks). Not all shared in the glory, though: Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) did not see any noteworthy movement in its stock price, and is actually down for the year.

Next summer's scripts are being finalized now, budgeting is under way, talent is being locked up, and production will soon start. No doubt we will be seeing more of the same. Shrek IV has already been announced.

Disclosure: I own TWX stock as of today's date.

To verify my track record, including bad calls, read Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Yesterday I half-heartedly went to see the Pixar / Disney (NYSE: DIS) movie "Ratatouille" with my 11-year-old son. To my great surprise it was fantastic. The story, quality of animation and superb writing were cleverly executed. If Pixar continues to produce this highly imaginative level of animation then the first class Walt Disney tradition lives on.

It may appear that the entertainment industry is being diluted, fragmented and slowly surrendering to the Internet via vast amounts of "product" created by amateurs and wannabees, but this is deceiving. The Web has allowed for the immediate distribution of a diverse range of ideas in new media such as YouTube (Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). It has created a platform to launch what otherwise might be undiscovered talent. But we deceive ourselves if we think this will ever be a substitute for the top talent assembled by Pixar / Disney.

For example, we know that there are more people playing basketball then ever before and they have greater skills too. However, we still pay top dollar and flock to see Kobe and Shaq, even though they now play on opposite coasts. We want to see the best. While the web has proven to be informative, entertaining and democratizing it is not Hollywood. While it has exposed us to new ideas, (and garbage) and provided opportunity to millions of people and new artists, for the most part it is a new delivery system and a new marketing platform. It is not Disney or Dreamworks and it never will be.

If you're reading this on 7/7/07, today is your lucky day. That's because Reuters reports that today is the day that an organization called New 7 Wonders of the World is releasing its list of the 7 Wonders of the World in Lisbon. Europe's leading contenders are the Acropolis in Athens, Rome's Colosseum, and the Eiffel Tower. They are competing with Machu Picchu, Mexico's Chichen Itza ruins, India's Taj Mahal, Petra in Jordan, Christ Redeemer in Brazil, and the statues of Easter Island.

In honor of 7/7/07 and those 7 Wonders, I've picked 7 Wonders of the Investment World. Rather than select a stock from each of the countries where the 7 Wonders reside, I've decided to pick seven companies from around the world that I perceive as global leaders in significant industries that may make good long-term investments.

Here are my 7 Wonders of the Investment World -- listed in alphabetical order: