Q. What is your outlook for Great Britain's economy in the next 12 months?

A. We are on the cusp of a recession, but we have yet to feel the real crunch from a retailing viewpoint. The forthcoming all-important Christmas trading period will give more of a guideline by [the middle or end of] January. There is as yet no real sign of confidence returning, which would suggest we are in for a long haul. Borrowings are at an all-time high and will probably double again next year. This may mean higher taxes as well as labor unrest which would be detrimental for the economy.

Lower oil prices do help and commodity prices are falling, and will start to be reflected in government statistics by early next year. Hence, economy fears are turning towards deflation rather than inflation

Q: So, at what point do you expect to see actual recession in the UK?

A: My guess is that Christmas festivities may distort the reality, but I am sure that by February 2009, we in the UK will be feeling the full weight of recession.