When you spend $787 billion, there's a lot of pressure to show results. So, there's no surprise that success is being proclaimed across the country. States are saying that they've used the federal stimulus package money to create or save more than 388,000 jobs this year. Teachers, construction workers and other professions have realized the upside of stimulus cash according to reports from 33 states and Puerto Rico, with the remainder of the results being released on Friday.

Of course, the numbers "should be taken with a grain of salt," says Ethan Pollack of the Economic Policy Institute. The states were tasked to count the jobs created or protected, but the results have been of dubious accuracy. This doesn't mean the stats can't provide fodder to people on both sides of the aisle.

Columbia Business School's Frank Lichtenberg says the data shows a solid economic impact, and the Obama administration's Council of Economic Advisors believes the stimulus spending has taken care of between 600,000 and 1.1 million jobs.

And, there are those who disagree.

Who is ready for their morning dose of anger? That is what I thought this morning when I found out about the higher pay at some investment banks following the recent bailouts. Well, let me qualify that -- it isn't necessarily higher pay, but some execs will receive the same amount as they did before the bailouts. Some Wall Street firms, enjoying improving profits are on track to "pay employees as much as, or even more than, it did in the pre-crisis days." The top six U.S. banks have set aside $74 billion to pay employees, up from $60 billion last year, according to the Washington Post.

The G-20 summit was a true public relations success. There were no walkouts by France or any other country as had been previously feared. There were statements that protectionism should be avoided. It appeared that the world learned the lesson from Smoot Hawley Tariff Act during the Hoover administration. There was a commitment to fund the International Monetary Fund with additional capital. Despite low expectations, there appeared to be an international consensus by the G-20 nations.

President Obama was warmly received by all the G-20 nations. This was in sharp contrast to the chilly reception of the Bush administration at prior G-20 summits.

Can President Obama force CEOs to take a massive pay cut? While many others in the economy -- particularly the millions of regular Joes and Janes who have lost their jobs -- are helping to push down wages, CEOs have been immune from the pay cuts. But if Obama forces CEOs who take government money to limit their pay to $500,000 -- 25% more than Obama takes in -- will that cause all CEO pay to tumble? I think the answer is "no."

Why? Many reasons. First, no CEO in his or her right mind would volunteer to take government money given the ensuing pay cut. For example, if the CEO of a car company made $14 million in 2008, why would that same CEO volunteer to make $500,000 in 2009? Instead, the CEO would seek a position with a company that did not take government money and therefore did not limit the CEO's pay.

Last Friday, the big economic news was the shocking loss of 533,000 jobs which spurred President Bush to accept this weekend a bailout plan for the automobile industry likely to be announced in the week ahead. So did stocks crash on Friday as a result of the bad jobs news? No -- the Dow rose 259 points. And despite the daily failure of the stock market to fit the simple storyline that stocks go down with bad news and up with good, this media mental model persists.

In the week ahead, there is likely to be more bad news. Here are three such items:

• Spiking unemployment filings. On Thursday, first time unemployment filings are likely to top 500,000 for the fourth straight week.
• Slumping retail sales. On Friday, retail sales are likely to decline for the fifth month in a row -- the longest such streak since the numbers were first collected.
• Non-forecasting companies. A few companies are expected to report their results and claim that they lack visibility -- code for the future looks dark and they don't want to speculate publicly about just how dark.

So what will the market do this week? I have absolutely no idea. But it would not surprise me if it rose and fell wildly for no apparent reason.