Sy Harding, long-known for his work in cycle analysis, takes a look at the history of Presidential Election Cycle and what this portends for the next few years.

Interestingly, he explains how and why this cycle will impact the direction of the stock market in coming years regardless of which candidate becomes the country's next President. Here's his long-term assessment from his Street Smart Investing.

"As Paul Harvey once said, 'In times like these it helps to recall that there have always been times like these.' Yet the world hardly ever comes to an end. The future arrives. The cycles continue. Sunny weather still follows stormy weather, winter still follows summer, spring still follows winter -- every time.

"For investors there's nothing more important than recognizing that business, the economy, and markets also move in cycles, not endless straight lines. Recessions follow boom times, bear markets follow bull markets, bull markets follow bear markets -- every time.

"There are two cycles, one of intermediate-term duration, the other longer-term, which can be of significant importance to investors. The first is the annual seasonal cycle.

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Presidental stock market cycle picks no favorites originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, the advisor reviews the basics of this cycle, its historical merit, and what the Presidential cycle portends for the market's action between now and Election Day.

"Since we are in the midst of an election year, this cycle warrants review. During the 4-year Presidential Election cycle there is a characteristic variation in annual stock market returns that is evident in historical data and actually makes sense when one thinks about it.

"Basically, it boils down to just 'good politics.' Politicians worth their salt understand the goal: get any
bad economic news over early during your term and have the economy back on track and humming along
by Election Day.

"Consequently, the worst stock market performance typically occurs in the first two years after a Presidential Election. The third year, as politicians begin gearing up for re-election, is usually the
best year on Wall Street by a wide margin, and the only year where the average gain in the S&P 500 tops
10%.

Continue reading The Presidential election cycle: A market history

The Presidential election cycle: A market history originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 May 2008 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.