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Analyst downgrades: SUN, PRM, WPPGY, PUB and NFX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Primedia, WPP Group, Publicis and Newfield Exploration were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Sunco Inc (NYSE: SUN) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America, as the firm believes Sunoco's valuation discount is justified since its net margin/barrel is almost $2.50 below its closest peer due to inferior assets.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Primedia Inc (NYSE: PRM) to Hold from Buy on valuation.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY) to Hold from Buy and shares of Publicis Groupe (NYSE: PUB) to Sell from Hold to reflect their more cautious view of the advertising sector.
  • Goldman sees better catalysts at other E&Ps and downgraded Newfield Exploration Company (NYSE: NFX) to Neutral from Buy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Source Interlink buys print magazines -- wrong product, wrong time

Source Interlink Cos (NASDAQ:SORC) has a big piece of several dying markets already-- CD and DVD distribution, magazine fulfillment, processing of rebate claims. Apparently, they like the direction so much they've coughed up $1.2 billion to purchase the Enthusiast Media division of Primedia (NYSE:PRM).

Included in the package are seventy magazines including big names Motor Trend, Motorcyclist, Bike and Soap Opera Digest, and a multitude of micro-niche pubs such as Dressage Today, ATV Rider and Honda Tuning. The deal also includes ninety web sites, sixty-five plus events and a couple of television shows.

The magazines didn't fit with Primedia's new emphasis on internet-based content. Last year, the company sold its hook-and-bullet mags for $170 million. It had also toyed with spinning off Enthusiast Media, but in February the board changed its mind and launched a search for a buyer.

Net revenues from Enthusiast Media have remained consistent at half a million and change for the past three years. Looking ahead at the shift of advertising dollars away from paper, the company obviously didn't see this business as an essential part of its overall strategy.

Given the struggles across the industry in making money from paper content, and the poor performance in the sector for Primedia, I'm skeptical that this is a step in the right direction for Source Interlink. There are strong brands within the titles it bought, but the value will need to be realized by transitioning to other media. And quickly. Others are already staking out their turf.

Primedia: Undoing a private equity mistake

While private equity can seem to do no wrong, there are certainly some case studies of botched deals. One is KKR's backing of Primedia (NYSE: PRM).

On paper, it seemed to make sense: consolidate the fragmented world of specialty publications. However, with lots of debt and difficulties with synergies, things just didn't work out.

Now, Primedia is in the process of unwinding its many deals. The latest is the $1.2 billion sale of the Enthusiast Media division. It includes 70 magazines like Soap Opera Digest, Motor Trend and even Snowboarder. There are also 90 web sites.

The buyer is Source Interlink (NASDAQ: SORC), which is backed by billionaire Ron Burkle. He made a fortune in the grocery business because of strong operational skills and buying up assets at deep discounts.

To finance the deal, Burkle is getting loans from Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Interestingly enough, it looks like Source Interlink is trying to pursue the same type of consolidation strategy that Primedia tried.

And, so far, shareholders are a bit concerned. Over the past couple days, the stock price has fallen about 15%.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 06:42 PM

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