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Disney made the right decision in exiting the 'Narnia' franchise

I've been critical of Disney (NYSE: DIS) when it comes to some of the Mouse's moves in terms of content development. But, when I see something I approve of, I have no problem highlighting my feelings about it. Today is just such a day.

According to The Hollywood Reporter, Disney does not want to help Walden Media make the next picture in the Chronicles of Narnia franchise. The studio teamed up with the production company on The Chronicles of Narnia: the Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe, as well as the second feature, Prince Caspian. Although I'm certain that there will be Caspian DVDs under a lot of Christmas trees this holiday, I, along with everyone else, noticed back in the summer that the film delivered disappointing results at theaters. And then, Disney CEO Bob Iger tried to make excuses about the bad performance (CEOs are always trying to make excuses about one thing or another, it seems). Now, though, Iger is done synthesizing reasons for the failure of Caspian. Instead, he's passing on The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, and I congratulate him on his decision.

Continue reading Disney made the right decision in exiting the 'Narnia' franchise

Time Warner scores at the box office with 'Sex' pic

The box-office estimates from Boxofficemojo for this past weekend surprised the heck out of me. Apparently, I'm out of touch with how popular this HBO show actually was because Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City captured first place at domestic multiplexes, hauling in over $55 million as of now (the numbers will change when they are finalized later on). Honestly, I thought I was going to be writing about the failure of Carrie and the gang. Kudos to Time Warner for opening this picture to great success.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull continues to bring in the nostalgia crowd as well as generate new fans for the franchise. It came in second place with about $46 million for the weekend. Still, I'm amazed that "Sex and the City" topped it.

Continue reading Time Warner scores at the box office with 'Sex' pic

Disney CEO Bob Iger offers excuses for 'Prince Caspian's' performance

I'm sure there are a few out there who are sick of my complaining over the failure of Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Prince Caspian film. But, I just had to write about recent comments made by CEO Bob Iger on the subject at a conference.

Okay, in Iger's mind, the reason Caspian failed is because it is a pretty competitive multiplex out there. He feels there are "too many movies being released." He also thinks the marketplace is "very delicate, very fragile." The Mouse CEO also highlighted the fact that Disney has cut back on movie production in recent years and is therefore hopefully making better decisions about the cinematic concepts it backs.

These comments sound like excuses, Bob. Sure, it's competitive out there. Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull are certainly overshadowing the brand equity of Caspian. But, is that the real reason the movie performed as poorly as it did? An interesting little note in the article is that Disney originally was going to use the same releasing strategy for Caspian as it did for the first Narnia epic. The studio intended on opening the sequel during the most recent Christmas season. But, here's why it didn't: producing partner Walden Media was opening its own movie at that time, one that was being distributed by Sony (NYSE: SNE).

Continue reading Disney CEO Bob Iger offers excuses for 'Prince Caspian's' performance

Is Disney's stock headed for a fall?

A recent article at Barron's Online about media and theme-park operator Disney (NYSE: DIS) seems to imply that now might not be the best time to purchase shares of the Mouse. Chief Financial Officer Tom Staggs and General Counsel Alan Braverman each reported selling over 100,000 Disney shares not long ago. According to the article, this was the first sale for both in over two years.

Shareholders should certainly take note of this event. And potential investors should really take note. On the surface, the sales appear to portend a negative track for the stock. Plus, it reminds me of a call made by some analysts at Citigroup a little while ago. They devised an options trade based on the belief that the stock wouldn't be much above $37 per share come October. After all, no matter how well Disney seems to be doing in this rough economy, it might eventually get derailed by it. Now that I see some insiders lightening their stock loads, I can't help but begin to wonder.

So, what am I doing in terms of my Disney position? Nothing, to be honest. I'm in it for the long term (as of now, anyway). However, I probably won't initiate any new buys right now, because I think it's entirely possible that the stock could be heading lower during the summer trading sessions. If you've been looking at Disney but haven't bought yet, you better do some more due diligence before pulling the trigger. With gas prices pretty steep around the country, and with movie content having a bit of a problem right now -- see my thoughts on Disney's Prince Caspian -- Disney could, as many articles have suggested, be facing some difficult quarters. Simply put, the insider transactions don't do a lot in terms of inspiring confidence.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.

Is Disney's 'Narnia' fantasy dead?

Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Chronicles of Narnia flick, Prince Caspian, opened on top of the weekend box office to an estimated $56.6 million take at domestic theaters according to Boxofficemojo.com. The media is buzzing with how awful this number is. Well, I'm not sure any of the media outlets I checked actually used the word awful, but I'm using it.

Simply put, the first Chronicles of Narnia movie grossed more than $65 million in its debut weekend, a significantly higher figure than what Caspian captured. Think about this: the first Narnia entry was released in December 2005. Considering that the first film did pretty well, one would have figured that a sequel released a couple years later would have benefited from the high-traffic pre-summer period and that the first weekend would have achieved at least a $70 million+ opening. Never happened. Instead, even though Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man fell to number two, its estimated weekend haul of $31 million seems the bigger achievement by comparison.

So, who's to blame here, if anyone? Should Disney CEO Bob Iger be apologizing to shareholders? Maybe a small apology might be in order. I mean, did any of you out there feel the energy of the marketing campaign behind Caspian? I didn't. Once the early Iron Man buzz left the building, Disney should have rushed in to capitalize on the minds of moviegoers who were now waiting for the next big blockbuster coming down the pike; let's face it, during the summer box-office period, that's what we're programmed to do. Even now, I'm looking forward to the business waiting to be done by Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Disney doesn't have much of a chance to turn Caspian into a super blockbuster if Jones is the hit I think it's going to be. The competition will simply be too much.

Continue reading Is Disney's 'Narnia' fantasy dead?

'Iron Man' vs. 'Indy': Preview of potential summer blockbusters

Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.

Robert Downey in Paramount Pictures Iron Man

5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures

The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.

5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros.
Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.

Continue reading 'Iron Man' vs. 'Indy': Preview of potential summer blockbusters

Disney looks to C.S. Lewis for continued box office boost

At Comic-Con this year, the Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) announced its commitment to make all seven of the Chronicles of Narnia books into feature films, releasing one a year starting in May '08 with Prince Caspian. This decision follows the success of the adaptation of the first book -- The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe -- which grossed almost $300 million.

This decision is not surprising, following the conclusion of Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, which has no immediate plans to continue. Disney is predictably looking for its next goldmine franchise, and what better to use than a seven book series which already had a successful start?

The only question is whether the quality of production will suffer in the sequels from such an ambitious filming schedule, and after Disney pulled off the Pirates trilogy with such dazzling effects, I doubt that will be a concern -- although the quality of the Pirates scripts did fade down the stretch. At least with these movies, the writers will have a classic source to guide them.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:15 PM

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