Analyst Upgrades

• Procter & Gamble (PG) upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Capital One (COF) upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Airgas (ARG) upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Broadcom (BRCM) upgraded to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Lululemon (LULU) upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies.
• DryShips (DRYS) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

Bright and early this morning, consumer goods titan Procter & Gamble (PG) was targeted by a short strangle speculator. The trader sold a block of 15,000 September 60 calls, and simultaneously sold a matching block of 15,000 September 57.50 puts. By implementing this directionally neutral strategy, the options player is wagering that PG will remain pinned between $60 and $57.50 through September expiration, which is just about one month away.

Analyst Upgrades

• Janney Montgomery upgraded MasterCard (MA) to buy from neutral. The firm has a $250 price target on the stock.
• Lazard upgraded Frontline (FRO) to hold from sell following the better than expected Q1 report.
• Knight Capital (NITE) was upgraded at BMO Capital to outperform from market perform. The firm cites valuation and improved fundamentals for the downgrade. The firm has an $18 price target on the stock.
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Carnival (CCL) was upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Computer Sciences (CSC) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

"Our primary purpose at Investment Quality Trends is to assist investors in growing their capital and income base from which to derive cash for their current and future needs," says Kelley Wright.

The editor of IQ Trends explains, "To that end we believe that high-quality stocks purchased at historically low-price-to-high-yield offers the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.

"Our primary purpose is to assist investors in growing their capital and income base from which to derive cash for their current and future needs," says Kelley Wright.

The editor of IQ Trends -- and author of the just-released book Dividends Still Don't Lie -- explains, "To that end we believe that high-quality stocks purchased at historically low-price-to-high-yield offers the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.

Before the opening bell sounds on Thursday, October 29, Cincinnati-based Dow component Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) will report fiscal first-quarter earnings. Analysts believe P&G will report earnings of 99 cents per share with sales of $19.83 billion.

These expected results are lower than those of a year ago, when the company saw earnings of $1.03 per share and revenue of $22 billion. P&G set expectations low for this quarter, as it announced early in the quarter that sales are expected to fall again. Is this truly the case or is it a smart business move?

"While companies have been cutting dividends at an historic pace over the last 24 months, the fact is that there are still quality companies with long histories of paying dividends that represent good long-term investments," says Chuck Carlson, a specialist in companies offering dividend reinvestment plans.

In his top-notch The DRIP Investor he says, "The seven stocks featured here have each been paying a dividend for over 100 years, have raised their dividend annually for at least the last quarter century and offer direct-purchase plans.

Cincinnati-based consumer products giant Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported fourth-quarter earnings this morning, topping the Street's expectations on earnings but missing on revenue.

As for earnings, P&G pulled in 80 cents per share in the fourth quarter, topping the consensus estimate by a penny. On the revenue front, PG made $18.66 billion in the fourth quarter, well short of the Street's expected $19.32 billion.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is going to be reporting its fiscal fourth quarter earnings tomorrow before the market open.

Going into tomorrow's earnings announcement analysts are expecting to see the company report earnings of 79 cents per share. For the same period last year the company had earnings of 92 cents per share.

Supervalu (NYSE: SVU), whose competitors include Kroger (NYSE: KR), Safeway (NYSE: SWY), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported results for its fiscal second quarter. Net sales unfortunately didn't budge much at all. They came in essentially flat at $10.2 billion. Earnings per share on an adjusted basis were $0.61. According to this article, the expectations were for $0.69 per share. So, as can be seen, Supervalu lost the analyst-expectations game by a wide margin. Last year's adjusted earnings were $0.64 per share. Not only are those numbers disappointing, but comps saw a decrease of over 1%. And the gross margin suffered as well.

So, we have an earnings miss, flat revenue growth, and a decline in the bottom line. What does all that add up to in terms of market reaction? The stock sees a bid. At the time I began writing this piece, it was up 2.5%. As I found with Kroger, the market may be looking at supermarket businesses as defensive plays. Of course, at the time I covered Kroger, that company's numbers were a lot better than Supervalu's.

However, last time I checked the stock before sending this piece in, it was becoming more volatile along with the market, moving from green to red in quick succession. Given the weak data, I can't say that I'd be considering Supervalu right now. It is true that people will continue to shop at supermarkets even during economic downturns, but I'd rather look at something the supermarket sells as opposed to the supermarket itself to get defensive. I'd rather align my portfolio with the stronger brand equity of perhaps a Kraft (NYSE: KFT) or a Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) than a Supervalu.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Is the market getting you down? You want it to go up, right? Well, you better settle in and brace yourself for even harder times as an individual investor. That is, if some pundits are correct about the direction of share prices. According to this CNBC page, a Dow of 8,000 is now in play, and gold might be set to strap a rocket on its back and propel itself up to $1,500 per ounce over time. I'm not sure about the gold, but a Dow of 8,000 almost feels like a logical rest stop at this point (but that might be emotion talking). In the end, none of us can tell the future.

I can, however, share with you a wish. And it isn't just my wish. I'm sure there are others out there who have already said this. And, yes, this wish is coming from someone who owns The Walt Disney Corporation (NYSE: DIS), The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), and General Electric (NYSE: GE). I own them for the long term (except for a separate trading position in GE which completely failed and may turn into another long-term asset), so maybe this wish isn't so mysterious. I want to go back to that "happy" time of October of '87. I want to see the Dow drop over 20% in one day. Preferably, I'd like to see it drop 25%, on Cloverfield-monster-sized volume. How many points would that be? As of this writing, it would be roughly 2,670 points.

What, am I insane? About as insane as the idiots who decided to become risk sponges, I suppose. In all seriousness, we need a crash. We need a reset, a reboot. We need a lot of panic on the street, and a spiking VIX ($VIX.X), to at least begin a bottom formation. If you think we're going to form a bottom without pain, you're wrong. And if you think, at this point, that we can form a bottom without a crash, well then, I won't say you're completely wrong on that count, but I will say that a crash would be better.

We've all been there: You wear a certain outfit or pair of favorite shorts, and when you are done for the day they're just not dirty enough to go into the laundry hamper or clothes washer, but of course, they're also not that clean. Guys know this procedure all to well; not so much for the ladies.

Well, good news. Instead of wasting bottles of Febreze in your closet, laundry detergent giant Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) -- which already owns 60% of the laundry detergent market -- is about to launch the new Swash product. No, the consumer product giant doesn't want to cannibalize sales of a $7 billion category that it basically owns, but invent a new one altogether.

For those who "re-wear" regularly, the new Swash is made for you. Kevin Crociata, P&G's marketing director for its North American laundry division, says that "This is not meant to replace the wash, but to enhance the re-wear experience that is a big habit with consumers." The re-wear experience -- what a great description. This, from an initial perspective, looks like a very innovative solution to a very common occurrence in many millions of American homes. Kudos, P&G.

Not only are the various Swash products going to look good, they'll be made to sit on the nightstand where they are always in view, and apt to be used daily (naturally). Get ready to see these product titles in your grocery and retail stores soon:

• Fresh It Up (to remove odors) -- $5 for a 2.5-ounce bottle
• Get It Out (stain remover pen) -- $3 for a 0.4-ounce pen
• Smooth It Out (to remove wrinkles) -- $5 for 5 ounces
• Steam It Out (dryer cloth to remove wrinkles in 10 minutes) -- seven cloths for $5

"Any further market weakness creates creates another opportunity to acquire some outstanding stocks," suggests Kelley Wright, noted for his focus on blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.

In his Investment Quality Trends newsletter, he looks at the benefits of keeping a long-term focus, the value of dividend districutions to an investor's long-term returns, and his current "timely ten" picks for conservative investor.

"The cash dividend for the Dow is $322.40. One year ago the dividend was $284.06. Amidst all the turmoil in the markets and the economy something must be going right with the Dow 30 companies because the dividend is ever climbing.

"Dividends, as we all know, can only come from the reality of earnings; you can't pay what you don't have. The dividend yield on the Dow is currently 2.66%, which represents an 11% downside to a 3.0% yield and the historically repetitive area of Undervalue.

"Will the Average make it down to that level? No one knows but that isn't the point. At current levels the upside is FAR greater, particularly in many of the stocks in our Undervalued area.

The New York Times reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) plans to commit $400 million to its naming rights deal for the stadium of the New York Mets. I say stop this deal!

Why? There are so many examples of companies that got into trouble after they named stadiums after themselves. In Boston, the stadium where the New England Patriots play was named after Gillette -- but Gillette doesn't exist anymore -- Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) bought it in 2005. And we had the Fleet Center, where the Boston Celtics play -- but Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) bought Fleet in 2003. And we also had the Tweeter Center, a concert venue -- named after Tweeter Home Enterprises which filed for bankruptcy last June. Fortunately, Boston's other world championship team, the Red Sox, has the good sense to deny naming rights to any company for its Fenway Park.

Now for Citi. According to the Times, it made its 20-year deal for the Mets naming rights back in November 2006 under previous CEO, Chuck Prince, after netting $5.3 billion in 2006's third quarter. But in the past three quarters, it has lost $17 billion - including a $2.5 billion loss reported on Friday.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) wants to calm the nerves of jittery Wall Street. According to this item, the Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) warning has spooked investors worried about inflation (I'm one of them). So, P&G wanted to let everyone know that things will be all right at the maker of Ivory soap and Pringles potato chips (or is that crisps?).

P&G is confident that it can deliver top-line growth of between 8% and 10% when it next reports. Also, management believes that earnings per share will still be somewhere between $0.76 and $0.78. You know it's a bad market when an announcement indicating that the status quo will merely be maintained as opposed to being exceeded is enough to keep a stock slightly in the green by a few pennies, as opposed to down nearly 5% (which is how the stocks of P&G and Kimberly-Clark are trading, respectively, as of this writing).

Of course, the fact that P&G came out and supported its guidance doesn't mean that inflation shouldn't be feared. We're still in bad shape in this regard, the bears haven't gone away, and I don't think either P&G or Kimberly-Clark are trading buys. I like both for the longer-term, and in terms of Kimberly-Clark, the yield is attractive. However, in terms of buy-and-hold-and-forget, you can't beat the safe reliability of P&G, whose product portfolio is one of the best out there in the consumer sector. I would imagine that P&G's brand equity is helping it navigate this vicious commodity storm, but don't think it can't weaken in coming quarters.

Disclosure: I don't own any stock mentioned; positions can change at any time.