"Tread lightly," cautions leading fund expert Bill Donoghue. In his Marketwatch Proactive Fund Investor, which develops various actively-managed mutual funds portfolios, "Further market erosion is more likely than a rally. There's little reason for optimism."

"When trends become highly probable and highly correlated with portfolio holdings, our advice may become very profitable. This is one of those times.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about to take out its 2002 low and safe-harbor investors are shifting to precious metals. Technically the next support is 25% down at 6,000.

"Considering the chronic financial damage done to the global economy, the bottom could even be lower. Even if you are a perennial optimist, you have to entertain and prepare for the possibility that the safest investment is to expect a continuing market downturn.

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"The great stock pick for 2009 is not a stock -- it is a high risk, extremely volatile ETF," says short-selling expert Michael Shulman, whose work is designed for sophisticated investors.

In his ChangeWave Shorts advisory, he explains, "The Proshares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF) is an inverse double ETF; in other words it moves twice as much -- and in the opposite direction -- from the Dow Jones Financial Index."

The advisor explains, "When the Dow Jones Financial Index goes down 1%, this ETF goes up 2%. High risk, high reward, very high volatility.

"The range in 2008 was $87-$304. You have been warned -- but please, keep reading, because even if you don't buy this ETF, consider my suggestion a warning not to buy financial stocks in 2009.