TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says tons of stocks look like good buys, and they go down all the time.
All weekend I heard it. Stocks have gotten too cheap. Put 'em away cheap. Don't worry about 'em cheap. To which I say, stocks are only cheap if the companies make it. Stocks are only cheap if the bondholders don't claim them.
Today's weak and horrible jobs numbers did not wreck the markets because they were actually a tad less horrible than yesterday's whisper numbers. It is amazing when 6.5% unemployment and -240,000 jobs to make 1.2 million jobs lost this year is GOOD NEWS.
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) rose on multiple reports that federal officials are looking at ways to ease financial pressure on the insurance giant. Shares were up over 11% at $2.08 right before the close.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) rose after its earnings came in well above plan considering that it had set the bar so low. Despite a revenue warning, value buyers had this graphics card giant trading up 13% at $8.61 right before the close.
QUALCOMM (NASDAQ: QCOM) was a surprise gainer today after trading down this morning. The CDMA cellular chip and wireless standard giant missed earnings and guided estimates down on weakening cell phone sales trends. Shares were up almost 8% at $35.57 right at the close.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) was under more pressure this morning, but rose throughout the trading day. Goldman Sachs downgraded this stock today down to a SELL rating, yet shares were uo almost 3% at $16.84 right before the close of the day.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was actually flirting with positive territory at 3:59. Considering it sold $11 billion in stock at $27.00, it is amazing that it was only down 0.1% at $28.72 in the seconds before that unofficial closing level.
It's not that the bottom-line numbers were wholly bad. Net profit rose 16% to roughly $1.1 billion. Earnings per diluted share on an adjusted basis increased 17% to $0.63. According this news source, that figure beat estimates by three pennies. That's all well and good, but that news source also states that Qualcomm is guiding below consensus. Not surprising, certainly, given what the markets are going through. But it still puts a damper on the stock's near-term potential, in my opinion. Plus, free cash flow was down 13% during the quarter, and it was flat for the twelve-month period.
Except for certain companies like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), I'm not really interested in playing the tech sector. If you had purchased Qualcomm near its 52-week low of $30.87, I'd be a seller into today's strength. No, I certainly can't predict the movement of stock prices, but I can tell you that I think Qualcomm could easily pull back from today's rally. The recession is going to worsen, and I don't think we've reached the point where the market will begin to discount better days. In fact, we're probably far off from that point. The rally that is going on in the markets as I write this (and by the time this gets published, it could be gone for all I know) feels like a dead-cat bounce. That wouldn't be good for Qualcomm's stock, I'd imagine. So, kudos to management for beating Q4 expectations. But I won't be rewarding you by buying your stock. Sorry!
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
U.S. stock futures fell Thursday morning as investors continued to focus on the grim situation of the economy, awaiting today's retail sales data from retailers today and Friday's employment numbers. Retail sales are expected to drop 0.3%, or 2.3% excluding Wal-Mart. Today, also, weekly initial claims will be released ahead of the bell as well as preliminary productivity number for Q3. Cisco's lowered sales outlook only underscored the economic picture. Global stocks plunged, but after the Bank of England took drastic measure with 1.5 percentage points rate cut to 3%, markets recovered somewhat. The European Central Bank cut rates by half a point. Meanwhile, oil declined below $65 a barrel.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO)reported financial results Wedensday after the close. While the world's largest maker of computer networking gear posted solid results that even Wall Street estimates, it warned that orders fell off abruptly in October and it projected a large fall in sales in the current quarter. Shares are down 5.3% in pre-market trading.
Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM), the automaker touted as the one able to weather the storm, has actually slashed its annual earnings forecast Thursday to less than a third of what it was the previous fiscal year due to the American economic slowdown and the yen strenght. Its July-September quarter net profit plunged 69% to 139.8 billion yen ($1.4 billion). Toyota shares are down over 10% in pre-market trading.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) is like the guy who was cool in high school and still tries to impress girls at the football game when he's 30.
The once-cutting edge technology company reported dismal third quarter results. The results were not as wretched as Wall Street had expected but they stunk nonetheless. Motorola's net loss was $397 million, or 18 cents a share, compared with $60 million, or 3 cents, a year earlier. Sales plunged 15% to $7.48 billion. Excluding costs to fire people, profit was 5 cents a share, beating the 2-cent average estimate of analysts polled by Bloomberg News. The revenue figure trailed the $7.82 billion Bloomberg estimate.
But neither the results nor the company's statement that it has exceeded its goal of cutting $1 billion in costs impressed investors who sent shares of the Schaumberg, Illinois-based company tumbling in early morning trading today. The company's plans to separate its headset business from the part that actually makes money is on hold. For how long, it's not clear.
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
I've taken a leg in the Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX: QLD). The market has popped 2% off lows, the question is will it pop the full 7%?
I'm seeing a few positive divergences and the percentage of stocks below the 50 day moving average is well below the 2002 levels. I haven't looked at the percentage of stocks below the 200 day, but I'm sure the reading should be equally distressed.
I know people are pricing in earnings per share Armageddon in tech land -- so the question is, what happens to many of these stocks if it's really just sort of "punk" and not a total cataclysmic drop in revenue guidance.
The market made a sharp turn without explanation. After being off most of the day on concerns about the futures of Lehman (NYSE: LEH) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), stocks rallied at the close.
The improvement did little to help Lehman, WaMu, and Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER), which were swamped by panic over their abilities to stay independent. WaMu moved up at the end of the day, but it was without explanation.
The big rally came in tech. Shares in Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) all ended up over 5%. While there was little evidence that the environment for the sector is improving, they are in one of the few relatively safe sectors of the market.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Shanda Interactive (NASDAQ: SNDA) to Outperform from Perform following the company's better-than-expected quarter to reflect its growth acceleration in the casual games platform and margin improvements.
SAIC (NYSE: SAI) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform following the solid Q2 report and guidance.
Susquehanna upgraded Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) to Positive from Neutral citing positive August comps, revised merchandising, easier comps, and solid financial position.
Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Analyst downgrades:
Morgan Stanley downgraded the Semiconductor Capital Equipment sector to In-Line from Attractive citing optimistic expectations for Q4 orders following the recent bounce in stocks. The firm downgraded Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) to Underweight from Overweight and KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) KLAC to Equal Weight from Overweight.
Today was a mixed bag. Shares spent most of the day in the red but staged a late day rally. Oil prices remained under $110 per barrel, which pulled down energy and commodity stocks yet again. Even the brief relief in today's Beige Book from the Federal Reserve hardly helped the situation despite it starting to see some energy price relief. The good news is that shares came back up in the last hour, masking some of the intra-day selling.
Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 11536.87 (+19.95) S&P500 (1275.35 (-2.22) NASDAQ 2334.74 (-14.50) 10YR T-Note 3.697% (-0.049%) Top Analyst Downgrades Top Analyst Upgrades
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) shares managed to show gains of more than 4% to $16.72 in today's final minutes after indicating down early on. Despite the on-again off-again stance with the Koreans, Doug was right ... this is like getting a root canal. CNBC's Charlie Gasparino noted that he has also said that HSBC may be interested.
By Alex Kolb, analyst, Zacks Investment Research Shares of QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) are trading about 15% higher than earlier this month, when the company was previously featured. Also, as was the case when previously featured, QCOM continues to trade close to a 52-week high. Wall Street forecasts are also higher now. Current earnings estimates of $1.95 per share for the year ending September 2008 are last month's $1.91.
The company posted a strong fiscal third quarter, noting that it delivered record revenues that were up by 19 % year-over-year. QCOM's third-quarter (GAAP) net income also increased year-over-year.
The Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company continues to offer a ROE of 20%, squashing the industry average of 2%. Its yield of 1.2% stands out as the company operates in an industry that virtually pays no dividend. QCOM's earnings per share are expected to grow by 19% over the next 3 – 5 years, versus the industry average of 17%. Read our Jul 10, 2008 analysis.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) is recently up $8.29 to $53.12. QCOM raised its 2008 revenue & EPS outlook. QCOM and Nokia (NYSE: NOK) said they agreed to end their legal disagreements. QCOM call option volume of 99,545 contracts compares to put volume of 48,346 contracts. QCOM August option implied volatility of 39 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
No matter how good Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)'s earnings have been over the last two years, its stock has been capped to some extent by its long legal battle with its largest customer, Nokia (NYSE: NOK). The dispute is over now, news which is probably better for Qualcomm than Nokia. The legal threat hanging over the cell phone chip maker firm is gone.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Under the settlement, Nokia will withdraw that complaint as well as other litigation. Besides getting licenses to Qualcomm patents, Nokia said it will assign ownership of a number of its patents to Qualcomm. The pact not only covers patents used in current cellphone networks but also emerging technologies that could succeed them -- including WiMax and LTE, which stands for long-term evolution."
The news sent Qualcomm's stock up over 18%.
Nokia had disputed the fees Qualcomm charged for its chips and the license fees for its technology. Qualcomm can now get substantial payments from its former nemesis. If Qualcomm had lost its battle, its long-term income could have been cut sharply. Nokia is getting access to patents, but it will still be making payments to the chip company.
The trouble has kept Qualcomm's shares from trading above the $52 level that they hit in mid-2006. Investors can expect that the ceiling on the stock will now be gone.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Stock futures were mixed Thursday morning, indicating a similar start to U.S. stocks. While the S&P 500 showed weakness ahead of housing data to be released at 10:00 a.m. EDT, the Nasdaq composite was slightly positive after Amazon.com reported strong earnings Wednesday. Investors also braced for Ford's earnings, which indeed posted double the estimated loss. The earnings wave continues. Meanwhile, oil prices edged a little higher, but remained around $124 a barrel.
Starting with Ford (NYSE: F) then, the world's third largest automaker posted (after items) a loss of $1.38 billion, or 62 cents. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected Ford to report a loss of 28 cents a share. The headlines scream of a loss of $8.7 billion though, which includes $8 billion in pretax writedowns of North American plants and assets of Ford Motor Credit Co. Ford also said it will convert three truck factories to produce small cars as rising gasoline prices sap U.S. truck sales. Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) couldn't manage to offset higher costs of energy and raw materials with the recent price increases it announced, and posted a 27% decrease in profit for the period. Net income was $762 million, or 81 cents a share. Revenue is up 23% to $16.38 billion. Earnings were below analyst expectation according to Thomson Financial of 85 cents per share, but better than the sales estimates of $14.9 billion. DOW shares are dropping some 9.5% in premarket trading as the company said it expects the economy to weaken.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) posted strong earnings Wednesday after the close, proving its growth days aren't over in this weakened economy hurt by high gas prices. Not only did it beat estimates -- with a 41% climb in revenue to $4.06 billion compared to $3.96 expected, and EPS of 37 cents compared to expectations of 26 cents -- but it also raised its full-year revenue projections. AMZN shares are climbing about 6.5% in premarket trading.
"Yes, the market is declining. And, yes, it is often scary to buy during such market periods. Nevertheless, there's an adage that 'the best time to invest was yesterday; the next best time is today'.
"Indeed, countless studies have shown that the best thing any investor can do is invest early and often. That is the best way to maximize the power of time, and time will have the greatest bearing on your investment results.
"Thus, investors need to be willing to buy even when it is difficult to do so, or should I so especially when it is difficult to do so. The reason is that we usually are reluctant to buy stocks during market declines. Yet, if you think about it, declining markets should be precisely the time we buy since stocks are cheaper.
"The stock has demonstrated impressive price performance throughout the market volatility in recent months, rising to its highest level in a year above $50 before pulling back.
Today's weak and horrible jobs numbers did not wreck the markets because they were actually a tad less horrible than yesterday's whisper numbers. It is amazing when 6.5% unemployment and -240,000 jobs to make 1.2 million jobs lost this year is GOOD NEWS.
U.S. stock futures fell Thursday morning as investors continued to focus on the grim situation of the economy, awaiting today's retail sales data from retailers today and Friday's employment numbers. Retail sales are expected to drop 0.3%, or 2.3% excluding Wal-Mart. Today, also, weekly initial claims will be released ahead of the bell as well as preliminary productivity number for Q3. Cisco's lowered sales outlook only underscored the economic picture. 
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit 
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Today was a mixed bag. Shares spent most of the day in the red but staged a late day rally. Oil prices remained under $110 per barrel, which pulled down energy and commodity stocks yet again. Even the brief relief in today's Beige Book from the Federal Reserve hardly helped the situation despite it starting to see some energy price relief. The good news is that shares came back up in the last hour, masking some of the intra-day selling. 
Qualcomm
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