Over the last few years, commodities have been at the center of a boom-and-bust cycle not witnessed before in our lifetimes. But one commodity that missed out on the boom -- but certainly not the bust -- is the dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chip.

This key component of the personal computer became a commodity after the dot-com boom, and its seemingly unlimited supply and availability resulted in falling prices.

There has been no hedge fund craziness with this commodity to drive up prices. Nope, this poor little semiconductor chip could not attract any sort of interest on the buy side. As a result, companies that make the DRAM chip have been struggling to survive.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) slashed its earnings forecast again Monday, the second time in a few months. The Japanese carmaker is now projecting that it would report its first ever operating loss of 150 billion yen ($1.66 billion) for the fiscal year as global demand has declined, especially in the U.S., while the yen has surged. TM shares declined over 3% in premarket trade. TM traded 5% lower by midday trading.

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) said Monday it sold its Hartford Steam Boiler (HSB) unit to Germany's Munich Re for $742 million, well below the $1.2 billion AIG paid to acquire HSB in 2000. HSB was one of AIG's most prized businesses. Munich Re will assume $76 million of outstanding capital securities. AIG shares jumped over 5.5% on the news in premarket trade. AIG shares were 4.3% higher by midday.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler were approved $13.4 billion in bailout funds on Friday from the Bush Administration and another $3.29 billion from the Canadian and Ontario governments for their Canadian subsidiaries. Now, a hard part would be talks with the United Auto Workers union, which are supposed to start in January. Now doubt, they will ask for some tough concessions so that they could present cost cuts and qualify for a second round of loans in February. GM shares declined over 7% in premarket trade. GM shares tanked nearly 17% by midday trading.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) to Buy from Hold on their belief Sovereign will merge with Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) according to the terms on their October 13 agreement.
  
• Jefferies upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Hold from Underperform on valuation as they believe the capital infusion from Leonard Green limits downside risk. The company's target was raised to $11 from $9.50.
  
• Banc of America upgraded Max Capital (NASDAQ: MXGL) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, the company's strategic changes to lower earnings volatility and their belief it is well positioned to benefit from an improved P&C marketplace.
• Qimonda (NYSE: QI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Cowen.
  
• Health Net (NYSE: HNT) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  
• Parkway Properties (NYSE: PKY) was lifted to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.

Analyst downgrades:

Analyst upgrades:

• Merrill upgraded shares of General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) to Neutral from Underperform on expectations for fundamentals to improve in 2009.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Chubb (NYSE: CB) and Travelers Group (NYSE: TRV) to Buy from Hold as they expect the company to benefit from the AIG (NYSE: AIG) fallout. The firm raised Chubb's target to $57 from $56 and Travelers Group's target to $51.50 from $49.50.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded shares of SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) to Outperform from Neutral as they believe margin expansion can drive higher profitability.
• JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus.
• Goldman raised Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• NetLogic (NASDAQ: NETL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) to Underweight from Neutral citing the company's early stage pipeline and generic competition.
  
• Merrill downgraded Unilever (NYSE: UL) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the incoming CEO is unlikely to bring a major restructuring or split up the company.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Canadian Solar, Qimonda and Eagle Test Systems were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to Outperform from Perform after channel checks indicated the company's internal cell ramp is proceeding on plan. They are more positive on shares following the recent pullback.
  
• Qimonda (NYSE: QI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, as they expect the DRAM supply/demand to balance out in the second quarter 2008 followed by undersupply.
  
• Broadpoint raised Eagle Test Systems (NASDAQ: EGLT) to Buy from Neutral after the company reported Q1 results.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• EADS (OTC: EADSY) was upgraded to Buy from Sell at ABN Amro.
  
• Jefferies upgraded Unisys (NYSE: UIS) to Hold from Underperform.
  
• BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) might finally be on the verge of seeing the adoption of Vista, wrote Arnie Berman, chief technology strategist, at Cowen & Company late last week.

Berman surveyed 283 corporate IT buyers and found 47% of small- and medium-sized businesses will begin deploying Vista by December 31, this is up from 43% in a similar survey completed in February. 31% of larger enterprises plan to start rolling out Vista by December 31, up from 25% in the previous survey.

How to invest in the long-awaited Vista uptake? Play the Microsoft food chain stocks, particularly since most investors have given up on Vista's adoption, indicating this is where investors could get the most bang for the buck. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Micron Technology Inc (NYSE: MU), Berman believes will be beneficiaries of Vista's adoption. Other investment plays include memory chip maker Qimonda AG (NYSE: QI), the drive makers Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) and Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC), and Marvell Technology Group Ltd (NASDAQ: MRVL), a supplier to the drive business.

In our past Intel blogs, the Fly has suggested Intel has capacity in place to start ramping 64 megabyte processors big time, on a scale Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) does not possess. Berman points out that Intel's enterprise value/sales ratio relative to AMD is close to an all-time low, meaning Intel is cheap relative to AMD despite AMD's recent poor stock performance.

Nvidia at 19x consensus calendar 2007 results has shown the ability to deliver favorable financial surprises and could provide the solution to the greatest potential bottleneck for Vista adoption, the graphic processors.

Micron is selling close to its $10.91 book value which historically has supported the stock and memory demand will increase with the new operating system.