Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on May 21. SOLF over all option implied volatility of 75 is below its 26-week average of 94 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.
"Gloom is thick enough to cut with a knife," says market historian and seasonal timing expert Sy Harding, whose timing system has just triggered a new intermediate-term buy signal on stocks. Here, in his Street Smart Report, the contrarian explains why he believes we are now near a market low.
He also looks at four new ETF index positions he has established in his portfolio. "The slowdown continues. Foreclosures soar. Debt problems are spreading to corporate and credit card loans. The housing collapse continues. The problems are affecting employment.
"And of course the credit crunch continues. Gasoline hit a record high $3.26 a gallon last week. Consumer confidence, and corporate CEO confidence is at multi-year lows regarding the economy.
"The gloom and doom has spread from financial publications to local newspapers and magazines, now featuring stories of layoffs and local plant closings, local small businesses suffering, comparisons to previous bad times, even occasionally to the Great Depression.
"Is the gloom thick enough? Are other conditions in place indicating we are near a market low? Here's why we think so:
I primarily trade fun smallcap stocks, so until the past few days, I hadn't either. But when I began researching, I just kept finding more and more interesting ETFs -- it was addictive! Almost addictive as my new Twitter account where I've discovered I can chat with business legends, yesterday it was the founder of eBay Inc (Nasdaq: EBAY). Okay, maybe ETFs will never be that addictive!
Out the few hundred ETFs I looked into, here were some of the more interesting of the bunch:
It seems that every day a new ETF is listed with a new twist on an index.
So, for a short history in ETF evolution:
1. First came the market-weight indexed ETFs. These were ETFs that benchmarked themselves to indices like the S&P (AMEX: SPY) or the Nasdaq (NASDAQ: QQQQ).
2. Then, Jeremy Siegel and the WisdomTree (WSDT) team introduced dividend -weighted indices. Instead of giving commensurate weight to the largest companies in an index, these ETFs looked at companies with the highest payouts in terms of dividends. These were shortly followed by earnings-weighted indices and the ETFs that track them.
After rising more or less in line with overall market volume for years, there has been a noticeable surge since the spring in the relative turnover of selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Although it's not clear whether the activity was related to hedging or outright position-taking -- or both -- the sharp increase in activity suggests that there has been an important change in the underlying dynamic of the U.S. equity market. If so, it raises some interesting questions.
Could this be a sign, for example, that the influence of hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, and other speculative operators is expanding dramatically? Are investors of all stripes becoming increasingly focused on ETFs as an investing vehicle? Does this emphasis on trading bundles of shares mean that more individual issues are "mispriced"?
Whatever the case, this is a trend worth paying attention to.
After a major run-up that began in earnest this past summer, the Nasdaq 100 index peaked relative to the Nasdaq Composite index about six weeks ago. The large cap-laden NDX then staged a short but sharp correction.
More recently, however, the ratio has bounced back and is once again nearing resistance at the October highs. The shares of larger companies have no doubt been boosted by stampeding institutions anxious to put money to work in what appears to be an early "Santa Claus" rally.
Still, given how circumstances panned out previously, it may be time to look for another pullback in the Nasdaq 100 in comparison to the broader technology-based index.
Up until the stock market bubble burst, many viewed the semiconductor sector as a leading indicator for other technology shares. Lately, however, the relationship has gone signficantly awry.
Since the year began, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust ETF (AMEX: SMH) -- has lost 3.4%, trailing far behind the 25.5% rise in the Nasdaq 100 index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) -- as well as the 8.6% gain in the S&P 500 index.
Although many technology stocks have been boosted by the prospect of strong overseas growth and momentum-driven buying, semiconductor shares have been under a great deal of pressure, hurt by disappointing earnings and outlooks from companies like KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), along with persistent talk of a chip glut.
Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), a Chinese-language internet search provider, is recently down $33.10 to $310.09. BIDU call option volume of 95,184 contracts compares to put volume of 67,862 contracts. BIDU October 330 straddle is priced at $35.50. BIDU November option implied volatility of 90 is above its 26-week average of 55, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN), is primarily focused on the development of drugs for oncology. REGN is recently up $0.59 to $19.09. REGN October 20 calls have traded 42 times on transaction volume of 881 contracts, above its open interest of 710 contracts. REGN November call option implied volatility is at 85, puts are at 73 above its 26-week average of 56, according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options: VIX.X up 2.54 to 19.21.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Sellers took control at the open and sent the market lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average got with striking distance of the August 1st low -- down 200 points -- before rebounding to close down only 31 points.
The NYSE had volume of 4.3 billion shares with 1,279 shares advancing while 2,058 declined for a loss of 14.27 points to close at 9,435.04. On the NASDAQ, 3.2 billion shares traded, 1,309 advanced and 1,792 declined for a loss of 11.6 to 2,544.89.
With the market plunging on the open, the options were active. There were 8.8 million puts and 8.3 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 1.07. Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) saw heavy volume on the August 45 calls (GQRHI) with over 259,000 options trading. The August 75.0 Garmin calls (GQRHO) moved 121,000 options. Most of this option volume is dividend arbitration in anticipation of the 0.75 cent dividend Monday.
Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) saw heavy volume on the August 130 calls (APVHF) with over 55,000 options trading. Financial Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF) saw heavy volume on the September 34 puts (XLFUH) with over 234,000 options trading. The other strikes were active as well and they investors were likely trying to protect investments capital. PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) saw heavy volume on the September 45 puts (QQQUS) moving 171,000. Put index options can work as an insurance policy against market falls.
Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.
Since hitting an interim low on March 5, the NASDAQ Composite index has rallied 10.3%. However, the large cap-laden NASDAQ 100 index has done even better, outpacing the broader benchmark by four percentage points.
In part, the relative outperformance of the narrower measure reflects the fact that investors have increasingly favored large, well-known companies with broad exposure to booming economies around the globe.
More recently, unsettled market conditions have spurred investors to seek shelter in the shares of firms that might fare better than those with less resources at their disposal.
Still, given the near-vertical trajectory of the relative advance and the fact that the NDX (which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) ) is nearing multi-year resistance relative to the Composite, odds are that the narrower measure is poised to lose a bit of steam, at least in the near term.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options - VIX up 3.61 to 21.67 10-day moving average is 16.98 according to Track Data.
Volatility Index NASDAQ 100 - VXN up 2.25 to 21.16; 10-day moving average is 17.80 according to Track Data.
NASDAQ 100 - QQQQ overall option Implied Volatility at 21: 26-week average is 19.
Semiconductor Holders Trust - SMH option implied Volatility 25; 26-week average is 22. IShares Russell 2000 - IWM option implied volatility at 28, 26-week average is 19.
ISE Sentiment Index - ISEE 91 new Calls purchased for every new Put today. ISEE 10-day moving average is 150. ISEE 50-day moving average is 139.
August front month Equity Options expire; 8/17/07.
Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com