"One group of stocks that has always intrigued us are those whose symbols have one letter," notes George Putnam. The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "Odd as this idea may at first seem, it actually makes some sense for a deep value investor. These are often old-line companies with well-known brand names. In some cases the single letter symbols were awarded many decades ago."
After reviewing the 19 stocks with single letter symbols (7 are currently unused), Putnam offers six that he says, have been "beaten down pretty badly and now look particularly appealing."'
"Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A), which makes electronic and bio-analytic measuring devices, was spun out of Hewlett-Packard in 1999. Revenues surged in 2000 as did the stock price, reaching a lofty 162.
"But the company subsequently suffered along with its customers in the communications and technology sectors. However, the financials are sound, including strong cash flow that is supporting a $2 billion share buyback, and management has been restructuring and realigning operations for long-term growth.
In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.
Permit me, if you will, to draw up an analogy: Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) is to Wall Street as Lindsay Lohan is to Hollywood. At first, the little redheaded upstart seems to come out of nowhere, and dazzles everyone with her amazing performance. Then, just as quickly as the newcomer rose to fame, she sinks into a massive meltdown, the scope and severity of which is shocking even to seasoned vets. Okay, so this little comparison probably won't find its way onto the SATs, but -- minus the "redheaded" part -- the similarities are kind of eerie.
What went wrong? At lucky number 13 on our list of SPX underperformers, Q shed 77% of its value during the decade that ended on June 30, 2008. The shares peaked at $66 in March 2000, and bottomed out at $1.02 in August 2002 - a 98.5% plunge, top to bottom.
When Colorado-based Qwest burst onto the Big Board in June 1997, it was a company with a vendetta. CEO Joseph Nacchio defected from his executive position at AT&T (NYSE: T) after it became clear that Ma Bell didn't see him as president material. Qwest was in the process of building a massive fiber-optic network, and the upstart was determined to grab market share away from the industry's old giants -- including AT&T, naturally.
Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q), a company whose competitors include Verizon (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), issued its Q1 results on Tuesday, and they weren't inspiring to me at all. Revenues declined 1% to $3.4 billion. Net income took a dive to the tune of 25%, coming in at $0.09 per diluted share. Those are year-over-year declines -- the sequential-quarter comparisons also told a tale of decline. Adjusting the earnings for some tax considerations did, however, yield a net-income increase of almost 6%.
But then there's one of my favorite measures of growth -- free cash flow. Qwest didn't hit this metric. Free cash, on an adjusted basis, was $56 million this time around versus $156 million last time around (I give Qwest credit for increasing its operating cash flow, however). Qwest was able to carve out some double-digit gains in its broadband and video subscribers, but that seemed to be of little help right now.
Overall, I came away from the earnings report -- which told a complex story of adjustments, EBITDA, and such -- not wanting to add this stock to my watch list. According to Briefing.com, Qwest missed expectations by a penny, and its revenues failed to go beyond what Wall Street was looking for. Considering the low price of the shares, and the fact that the dividend yield isn't one I'd chase, I'll feel free to leave this one alone.
Disclosure: I do not own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Royal Dutch Shell was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch to reflect the company's strong refining backdrop and potential for positive surprise in the gas and power and downstream segments.
Broadcom was upgraded to Market Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities following positive channel checks and the recent court win over Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM).
UBS upgraded shares of National Semiconductor to Buy from Neutral on the Q4 upside, ongoing share buyback and guidance which calls for further margin improvement.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Banc of America upgraded shares of Qwest Communications International Inc (NYSE: Q) to Buy from Neutral to reflect greater visibility into cash flow generation potential through 2008.
Banc of America also upgraded Cincinnati Bell Inc (NYSE: CBB) to Neutral from Sell, as they believe the stock is not a sell in a market focused on cash flow.
Genentech Inc (NYSE: DNA) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold based on compelling valuation and fundamental outlook.
Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Nordstrom Inc (NYSE: JWN) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing the recent share pullback and top-line growth.
Qwest (NYSE: Q) ex-CEO Joe Nacchio is currently on trial on 42 counts of fraud and insider trading dating back to stock sales in 2001. He faces the prospect of million of dollars in fines and life in prison. All along, Nacchio has claimed that he had secret information about lucrative government telecommunications contracts that Qwest might obtain. This is what allowed him to continue to make public positive statements about the financial status of the company.
Well, Qwest is in the running for the largest telecommunications contract the federal government has ever put out to bid -- $48 billion over a 10 year period. The General Services Administration contracts covers voice, video and data services for dozens of federal agencies including the Homeland Security Department and FBI.
On Friday, 30 March 2007, the General Services Administration determined that AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) and Qwest are still in the running for the contract. Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) was eliminated from further consideration because its prices were too high. Qwest is also bidding on another large federal telecommunications contract, this one for $20 billion, to be awarded beginning in May 2007. Look for Nacchio's lawyers to use this information to bolster their client's side of the story.
Now that Qwest (NYSE:Q) is finally back up to the same low price it was in January 2002 -- $8.65 per share -- long suffering investors will be in for a bumpy week as former Qwest CEO Joseph Nacchio's trial on 42 charges of insider trading begins in federal court in Denver. If convicted on most or all insider trading charges, Mr. Nacchio, 57, faces the possibility of life in prison. Legal reporters argue that 10 years in prison and the forfeiture of $100 million in ill-gotten gains is a more likely punishment scenario. What makes Mr. Nacchio's trial more than the usual white-collar fraud trial is that his defense is claiming the case involves national security issues. Unless the four national security agencies involved are willing to provide documentation and allow testimony in open court, Mr. Nacchio cannot possibly receive a fair trial. Thus the charges against him must be dropped. National security agency attorneys are trying to persuade the judge that these national security issues are merely fabrications to deflect attention from Mr. Nacchio's misdeeds.
What is agreed upon is that Mr. Nacchio sold $100 million in Qwest stock in 2001 at a time when he knew Qwest was experiencing financial difficulties. Mr. Nacchio does not dispute that he sold the stock, but due to private meetings with then National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Mr. Nacchio states he was given to understand Qwest would benefit from certain "blackbox" telecommunications national security contracts. When these "blackbox" contracts did not materialize, Qwest experienced financial problems leading it to the edge of bankruptcy. Mr. Nacchio was charged with insider trading in 2005. Mr. Nacchio's trial may set a new low in legal bloviation.
Also in the news, the Associated Press states Qwest founder, railroad baron Philip Anschutz, the man who hired Joseph Nacchio to run Qwest, has entered a private deal to sell almost all of his remaining shares in the company. On February 27, 2007, Mr. Anschutz sold 2.7 million shares for $24 million, an average price of $8.66-8.78 per share. More interesting, however, is his private deal to sell in excess of 20 million shares in 2010 for an undisclosed price. He will receive a current prepayment of $150.5 million from this private deal, details of which are difficult to obtain. Does this sound like a run for the exit to anyone else? What does Mr. Anschutz know about Mr. Nacchio's impending trial that other Qwest investors do not?