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Motorola Q3 earnings preview: Zander on the ropes

Motorola, Inc. (NYSE: MOT) is set to release its latest quarterly earnings this week, and earnings are expected to be $0.04 per share according to analyst estimates. Although Motorola CEO Ed Zander has jettisoned about 10% of the company's global workforce and has finally introduced a true successor to the record-setting RAZR handset from 2004 (the RAZR 2), he may just be biding his time until he gets the boot.

When Motorola's time comes tomorrow, the company will most likely report a profit -- its first in three quarters. But does a small quarterly profit make for a legitimate comeback? Not at all. The first half of this year saw a $209 million loss for the largest cellphone maker in the U.S., and a profit (even a small one) this quarter will be the final opportunity for Zander to produce a return to consistent profitability by the end of 2007. If he does not show this, expect a resignation. For Carl Icahn, who has been critical of Zander, it would be sweet justice.

Although cutting costs is the top tool for Zander, improving sales and margins is much more important if he doesn't want to be seen as a leader who can't produce growth quarter by quarter. His days may or may not be limited, but by the end of 2007, the writing will be on the wall. Either Zander finds a way to grow sales and profit beyond cost cutting, or investors who want to unlock more value from the company will scream until he's ejected from the company.

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Motorola (MOT) RAZR 2 release set for next week

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT)'s desperate attempt to dig itself out of profitless quarters and a huge backlash from the financial community against CEO Ed Zander is coming to a head this month. Later this month, Sprint (NYSE: S) is set to release Motorola's RAZR 2 handset, which has officially been termed as the successor to the original RAZR mobile handset that took the world by storm at the end of 2004 and ended up selling more than 50 million units through its lifespan (which continues today).

Aside from its success with that single product launch in 2004, Motorola has encountered many failures, with product delays, uninspired and RAZR-esque handsets that have no new designs, component shortages, inventory projection misses and just plain boredom. Customers all over the world have sought out trendier designs from competitors Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Samsung and LG (NYSE: LPL) (among many others) and Motorola just kept churning out the same thing in different forms (like flip phones, slider phones and "candybar" phones) for years. Due to not making any money and with sales slowing way down, Zander was on Carl Icahn's noose just a few months back.

Can the RAZR 2 save Motorola? I've pondered this a few times before, and the proof will start to form in the pudding here in a week or so. Once Sprint releases the RAZR 2 for $250 and Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) follows it with an approximate $300 price tag, AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) will follow -- hopefully in September -- with its own version. Once the RAZR 2 is at the three largest wireless carriers in the U.S., we'll know by the end of this year if it will sell like gangbusters and help rescue Motorola or if mediocre RAZR 2 sales will be the ultimate nail in Ed Zander's coffin at Motorola. Place your bets now.

Can the RAZR 2 save Motorola?

Motorola, Inc. (NYSE: MOT) rolled out some new handsets yesterday, as the cellphone manufacturer seeks to regain some of the magic that its iconic RAZR handset generated in 2004. Up front and center is the new RAZR 2 handset, which is the sequel to the RAZR, the best-selling wireless handset of all time. It will be carrying quite a bit of weight on its shoulders when released this summer. Can it rescue Motorola?

The original Motorola RAZR sold 50 million units in a staggeringly short period of time -- although half of that time the phone was being given away for free with long-term wireless contracts. as the phone grew old and plunged down the product lifecycle slide. Initially, the RAZR was priced at nearly $500 with a wireless contract, and surely the RAZR 2 will start there as well. But while the older RAZR re-defined the cellphone industry in terms of chic and style, the sequel may not have that panache, although it is loaded with futuristic features while being even slimmer than its predecessor. Is that enough?

Motorola needs another winner to get its house in order and sell as many higher-price handsets as it can to return to consistent profitability. Trying to get customers to shell out another $500 for the sequel to the most successful cellphone ever is not going to be easy, but it's something Motorola must do. If it fails (and we're standing here next year at this time with just a few RAZR 2 sales), Motorola CEO Ed Zander may need to put his resume on Monster.com (NASDAQ: MNST), even if Carl Icahn can no longer lobby for his dismissal.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 04:53 AM

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