Minyanville Professor Adam Katz dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
I've said it before: the second quarter is going to be the inverse of the first. Expectations going in were simply too high.
What I find interesting is that Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) have all taken down guidance due to the sluggishness they're starting to see in their businesses.
What the Street seems to be ignoring is that the dollar has been crushed for over a year now, which means that the currency tailwind is only getting weaker as the year drags on. If one uses $1.55 euro per dollar as a benchmark, the second-quarter effect was a 14% year-over-year currency tailwind.
In the third quarter, that drops to 10%; in the fourth, it will drop to 5%. Add in macroeconomic headwinds -- along with the fact that credit markets have been pushed back into a state of mild panic -- and it's a surefire recipe for a very tumultuous back half of the year.
I'm looking hard for reasons to be optimistic, but they seem to be thin on the ground. In the information technology (IT) sector, at least, we'll likely see a meaningful budget flush at the end of the year - if only because they'll be cut in a big way starting in 2009. This means that IT managers, if they even think they might need anything over the next year or so, need to use or lose whatever's left in their 2008 budgets come the fourth quarter.
This will create an environment where people will be calling the bottom for IT in the fourth quarter - but it's more likely to be the last hurrah before the bottom drops out.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. Brokers sector, Goldman Sachs and Research in Motion were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded U.S. Brokers to Neutral from Attractive since they can not find a catalyst to move the group significantly higher over the next few months given the continued deterioration in fundamentals. Goldman added Citigroup (NYSE:C) to their Conviction Sell List as they expect additional write-downs of $8.9B in Q2 and see the potential for additional capital raises. Goldman lowered their target price on Citigroup shares to $16 and recommends a pair trade of long Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), short Citigroup.
Wachovia downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) shares to Market Perform from Outperform on renewed economic fears, a likely slower pace of substantial capital raises, seasonally slower prime brokerage, and valuation.
Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities following the weaker-than-expected Q1 report and guidance and lowered FY09 EPS estimates on increased spending.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Red Hat (NYSE:RHT) was downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Here's a quick recap of some additional earnings reports on Wednesday.
Beaverton, Ore.-based Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) said strong growth overseas helped boost its fourth-quarter profit by 12% to $490.5 million, or 98 cents per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected the company to earn 96 cents per share for the quarter. Shares fell more than 5% in after-hours trading to $62.15.
CKE Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: CKR) said its first-quarter profit climbed 8% to $16.6 million, or 31 cents per share, helped by a small increase in same-store sales at Carl's Jr. restaurants. Revenue fell 3% to $466.2 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected profit of 27 cents per share on revenue of $465.5 million. Shares fell 5 cents to $12.25 in after-hours trading.
Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) said its fiscal first-quarter profit rose 6.6% to $17.3 million, or 8 cents per share. Adjusted earnings were 18 cents per share. Revenue rose 32% to $156.6 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average predicted a profit of 18 cents per share on revenue of $153 million. Shares fell 19 cents in after-hours trading to $22.11.
General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) said its fourth-quarter profit dropped 17% to $185.2 million, or 53 cents per share. Adjusted earnings were 73 cents per share, which met Wall Street expectations. Sales increased 13% to $3.47 billion beating expectations. The company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year. Shares fell almost 2% to $61.19.
There's much concern in the information technology (IT) world. Might companies cut back on spending in light of the slowing economy?
Well, as for Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), the environment seems to be OK. For example, in Q4, the company posted a 27% increase in revenues to $141.5 million. What's more, bookings are bulging (above $200 million).
While RedHat has a strong business with its Linux offerings, the company is also seeing lots of traction with its middleware platform, known as JBoss. Interestingly enough, with Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) buyout of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS), there's been a surge in downloads of JBoss. Basically, customers want an alternative.
Going forward, Red Hat forecasts revenues of $665 million to $680 for the upcoming year. Earnings are expected to range from $0.78 to $0.82 per share.
And Red Hat recently purchased Amentra, which is a systems services company. Basically, the deal will allow Red Hat to continue to turbocharge its sales of JBoss.
Today was an interesting day when you consider that the overall tone has gone back to the bears' favor and a sell strength trading mentality is winning. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose a slight +0.1% last month (which was in-line with economist surveys) but personal income rose to +0.5% in February, above the +0.3% rise expected. They must be paying more interest on credit cards or paying down debt.
Elsewhere, the federal Reserve noted it would auction another $100 Billion in securities to cash strapped banks in April. The University of Michigan released its preliminary consumer sentiment index for March and it had fallen to 69.5 in March from from 70.8 in February. Here are the unofficial closing averages on the US stock index levels:
Apollo Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) was a disaster today. The online educator fell a sharp 26.8% to $41.21 after the company missed earnings by a mile with a $32 million loss in the quarter.
KB HOme (NYSE: KBH) is set to report fiscal first-quarter results this mornings. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $1.17 per share, according to Thomson Financial. The comparable year-ago profit was 34 cents per share.
Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) is laying off about 1,200 U.S. sales representatives as part of its major companywide program announced recently to cut jobs and other costs and redesign the struggling business as increased competition and fewer new drugs are taking their toll on the pharmaceutical company.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) may raise as much as $20 billion in capital as part of an agreement with the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight that allows them to buy more debt securities. They can raise the capital with common shares, preferred shares or convertible preferred shares, further diluting the already troubled stocks but helping the companies to stabilize. FNM shares are up over 2.5% in premarket trading.
Caris & Company initiated coverage on Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) with an Average rating and a $96 target price. It also initiated coverage on Nokia (NYSE: NOK) with an Above Average rating.
Stanford Research initiated coverage on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) with a Buy and on Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) with a Hold.
Bear Stearns upgraded Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) from Peer Perform to Outperform and downgraded Saks (NYSE: SKS) from Peer Perform to Underperform.
Jefferies & Co downgraded Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) from Buy to Underperform, lowering that target price from $50 to $30.
Banc of America downgraded Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) from Buy to Neutral. It also downgraded Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) for Outperform to Sector Perform.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) agreed to buy Audible Inc. (NASDQ: ADBL), the provider of digital spoken word audio content, for $11.50 a share, a 23% premium to its Wednesday's closing price.
Last week Forbes released its annual list of the fastest growing tech stocks, and it shouldn't be much of a surprise that Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) topped the list, with nearly $15 billion in sales, representing five-year sales growth of 155%, and 30% EPS growth. To make the list, companies had to have significant sales growth over the past year and five years, as well as a good earnings forecast for the next three to five years. Companies with significant legal problems or corporate governance issues were excluded.
So if, like Aaron Katsman, Georges Yared, and Jim Cramer, you are bullish on tech stocks, then there's plenty on the Forbes lists worth taking a look at.
Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) provides customers with the Linux open source computer operating system. It also provides a variety of compatible technical programs, software development tools, support services and training programs. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), with its Windows operating system, is Red Hat's chief competitor. The firm operates strategic alliances with Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD).
Red Hat pleased investors earlier in the month, when it reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 19 cents and revenues of $135.4 million. Analysts had been expecting 18 cents and $132.4 million. A sharp jump in subscriptions more than offset increased operating expenses. Management also provided strong guidance for Q4/FY08 and announced that former Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) COO James Whitehurst would take over as CEO on January 1. RHT shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Brokers recommend the shares with one "strong buy", six "buys," fourteen "holds" and one "sell." Analysts see a 23% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The RHT Price to Book ratio (4.27), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (26.28), Sales Growth rate (27.98%) and EPS Growth rate (171.43%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions own about 95% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the AMEX Internet Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $18.04 and $25.25. A stop-loss of $18.15 looks good here.
Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.
Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) shares are trading higher this morning the company posted third-quarter earnings of 10 cents per share on revenues of $135.4 million after the close yesterday. Analysts had expected earnings of 10 cents per share on revenues of $132.4 million. RHT also raised its fiscal 2008 revenue outlook to between $521 million to $523 million, up from $510 million to $520 million. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RHT.
After hitting a one-year low of $17.96 last December, the stock hit a one-year high of $25.25 in June. RHT opened this morning at $20.17. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.00 and a high of $20.68. As of 11:30, RHT is trading at $20.66, up $1.87 (9.9%). The chart for RHT looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) Hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just 3 months as long as RHT is above $17.50 at March expiration. Red Hat would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.
RHT hasn't been below 17.50 in over a yeat, and could lose up to 14.9% before this trade loses money.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RHT.
With Macworld is a couple of weeks away, speculation grows as to what Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs could introduce this year, given his tradition of showcasing new products during the Expo. It seems the agreement among analysts and Apple enthusiast is on a slimmed-down laptop to capitalize on the MacBook success, as well as a higher-capacity model of the iPhone.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that "U.S. regulators, led by the Securities and Exchange Commission, are probing how financial firms priced mortgage securities on their books and whether they should have told investors earlier about the declining value of those securities." Among the companies the SEC is probing is UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS). Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) and Bear Stearns Co Inc (NYSE: BSC) have already been reported to be under investigation.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDQ: CSCO) changed its management structure where a "development council" composed of several executives will replace Cisco Systems Inc. CEO heir-apparent Charles Giancarlo, who has resigned.
Minyanville Professor Adam Katz dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit 
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There's much concern in the information technology (IT) world. Might companies cut back on spending in light of the slowing economy?
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Last week Forbes released its annual list of the 
Analysts had been expecting 18 cents and $132.4 million. A sharp jump in subscriptions more than offset increased operating expenses. Management also provided strong guidance for Q4/FY08 and announced that former 
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