Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Hold from Sell as it believes earnings estimates and valuation multiples could expand should Congress extend insurance coverage to the currently uninsured. The firm raised its target on shares to $38 from $29.
• JPMorgan upgraded Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Neutral from Underweight on expectations the company's fixed income business will drive earnings.
• KeyBanc expects U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) to benefit from a global recovery in flat-rolled products and a potential stabilization in energy end markets. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Hold.
• Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
• Pinnacle Financial (NASDAQ: PNFP) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Stephens.
• BP Plc (NYSE: BP) was raised to Buy from Hold at ING Group.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company's top-line growth rate could be more sustainable than expected and its operating margins could recover given due to less retail discounting. The firm raised its price target on shares to $97 from $65.
  
• UBS upgraded King Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: KG) to Buy from Sell based on expectations that Sandoz will settle patent litigation regarding Skelaxin after last weeks settlement of Clarinex with Schering-Plough (SGP).
  
• Jefferies upgraded Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) to Buy from Hold as it believes steel prices and demand are close to near-term bottoms. The firm raised its target on the stock to $44 from $25.
• Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Nestle (OTC: NSRGY) was lifted to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

I made it through mid-year of tracking my 2008 picks from last December and then -- Wham! -- I went from a slight advantage to being humbled badly by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all of the horrors since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

The master is still the master, Warren Buffett and his life's work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) beat me easily as well as the three indices I tracked.

For the most part, unless you started shorting stocks, there was no place to hide and most of my picks were big losers. There were two that beat Buffett and the market. The defense sector was the defensive sector it was supposed to be with Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) doing well on a relative scale. The other place you could have a morsel of stability was utilities and Huaneng Power International (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) lost less but not by much.

John Reese is an expert in analyzing the investment criteria of "legendary" advisors with time-tested strategies. And one market approach that may be of particular interest to investors during the current period of market turmoil is the value strategy developed by Benjamin Graham. (For more on this strategy, see our other post, "Three Rules of Value Investing".)

In his Validea newsletter, John reese explains, "Benjamin Graham -- considered the greatest investment guru by Warren Buffett -- built his reputation by using an extremely conservative, low-risk approach to investing." Buffett, incidentally, was Ben Graham's student.

Reese continues, "To Graham, preserving one's original capital was every bit as important as netting big gains. Having lived through the 1929 market crash, it's no surprise that the strategy Graham laid out in his classic book The Intelligent Investor was a conservative, loss-averse approach.

"To Graham, an investment wasn't something that could be turned into quick, easy profits; anything that offers such 'easy' rewards also comes with substantial risk, and Graham abhorred risk. In terms of specifics, Graham's approach limited risk in a number of ways, and my Graham-based model lays out several of those methods.

After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

Only Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) remained in positive territory, down from five stocks that were up in the last report. Sometimes, the reasons for the downslide were more obvious than they were in the cases for my picks. The cutting in half of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been reported often, as the largest independent oil refiner in North America has had its profit margins squeezed.

Loews Corporation (NYSE: L) has been hurt by its insurance interests and helped by its holdings -- a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index is narrower than in the past.

If you were looking for help from the economic front or from the oil patch today to help out the market, that wasn't in the cards. Home prices plunged by a record 15.3% from may 2007 to May 2008. Consumer confidence also came in at a 16-year low. From bottom to top to bottom we had more than a 150 point trading range in the DJIA today. These are the unofficial closing levels:

• DJIA 11810.04 (-32.89)
• S&P 500 1314.54 (-3.46)
• NASDAQ 2368.28 (-17.46)
• 10YR T-Note 4.105% (-0.063%)
• 52-week lows
• Top 10 Analyst Calls

Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) saw a sharp rise with shares up 15% at $4.20 late in the day after the company announced a large IRS refund and a $1 billion buyback to retire close to half of its stock.

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) hit the 52-week low list and a multi-year low earlier today before recovering list after the FDA delayed a decision on its anti-clot blood thinning drug, with shares down some 1.5% at $46.87 in the final minutes today.

Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) saw shares rise a sharp 7% with shares at $27.88 in the final minutes today after the company raised guidance.

Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) saw shares up after the company raised its own guidance again. Its shares were only up 0.5% at $73.85 in the final minutes of the trading day. Shares were up over 5% at the start.

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) saw a drop after the company came clean and fessed up that high fuel prices and low demand for premium delivery services were hurting business domestically and abroad. Shares were down 6% at $62.26 late in the day.

Platinum Equity focuses primarily on buying non-core assets from major companies. It's complex stuff but the firm has built a strong system to facilitate deals, such as with transition plans, long-term strategies, HR and so on.

And it's paying off. This week Platinum Equity sold PNA Group Holding to Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS) for about $1.1 billion.

Keep in mind that Platinum picked up PNA in 2006 for a cheap $17.5 million. What's more, the firm was able to recap the company and take out a special dividend for $181 million last year.

It's time to make some major changes, something I have said before. I am not the first to suggest this and I am quite sure I will not be the last. General Electric (NYSE: GE) needs to take some serious action to add shareholder value. Apparently, Jeffrey Immelt was very embarrassed after last quarter's earnings announcement, when the company reported disappointing earnings following Immelts' own earlier statement that they would hit their targets.

After GE sells its kitchen and laundry appliances, which is on the block now, it will still own business-producing aircraft engines, locomotives, electric distribution and control equipment, generators and turbines, and medical-imaging equipment. GE is also one of the preeminent financial services companies in the U.S. Commercial finance, consumer finance, and equipment financing and leasing together comprise the company's largest segment. Here is the formal list from the company web site:

• Appliances
• Aviation
• Consumer Electronics
• Electrical Distribution
• Energy
• Finance – Business
• Finance – Consumer
• Health-care
• Lighting
• Media & Entertainment
• Oil & Gas
• Rail
• Security
• Water

After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.

This past month saw great improvement. For the first time since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008, five of the eight stocks are up:

Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index narrowed substantially so that the three are tracking each other very closely. Stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) continue to gain significantly and their outlooks have not been shaken amid overall pessimistic economic forecasts.

Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), oil, and specialty steel were up. I went through my watch list and found this very short list of winners:

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) $78.49, up +$0.95 or 1.23%

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) $185.90, up +$2.30 or 1.25%

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) $49.92, +$0.85 up +$1.73%

Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS) $27.90, up $1.13, or 4.22%

Reliance Steel and Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $67.37, +0.$52, or 0.78%

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $50.12, up +$0.43 or 0.87%

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Reliance Steel is worth an evaluation.

First, don't think of Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) as a steel company; think of it as a 'diversified' metal processing services company.

Reliance supplies metal process services and also manufactures metal products for the construction, transportation, aerospace, manufacturing, and semiconductor industries.

This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abbott Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: ABT) first-quarter profit soared on overseas demand for Humira.
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) posted a bigger-than-expected loss, its sixth straight.
• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) posted better-than-expected first-quarter results on strength overseas.
• CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) first-quarter profit soared on strong demand for grain, ethanol, and coal.
• eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) beat first-quarter expectations but the outlook was uninspiring.
• Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) first-quarter profit soared 42%, beating Wall Street estimates.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) first-quarter earnings slipped but exceeded expectations.
• Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) beat first-quarter estimates and offered a disappointing outlook.
• J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) missed first-quarter estimates on rising fuel prices.
• Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) first-quarter profit missed expectations and it warned of a coming decline.
• Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) first-quarter profits fell and missed analysts' expectations.
• Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS) lowered its second-quarter outlook.
• Royal Philips Electronics posted a bigger-than-expected fall in profit on weak North America TV sales.
• Wolverine World Wide Inc. (NYSE: WWW) beat earnings estimates but shareholders were not impressed.
• Xerox Corp. (NYSE: XRX) posted a first-quarter loss that matched analysts' estimates.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS) shares are falling despite a positive Q1 earnings announcement after the company forecast a second-quarter profit between $1.50 and $1.60 per share, less than analysts' estimates of $1.66 per share. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on RS.

After hitting a one-year low of $39.91 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $64.27 yesterday. This morning, RS opened at $61.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $59.75 and a high of $63.95. As of 12:20, RS is trading at $62.11, down 2.16 (-3.4%). The chart for RS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $70 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in one month as long as RS is below $70 at May expiration. Reliance would have to rise by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

RS hasn't been above $65 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $65 recently. This trade could be risky if today's earnings do not hold the stock down, but with a slumping economy, times do not look too good for steelmakers.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RS.