Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Reliance Steel (RS) to buy from neutral and The Buckle (BKE) to neutral from sell.
• RAM Energy (RAME) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
• RBC Capital upgraded H&E Equipment (HEES) and Cameco (CCJ) to outperform from sector perform, and Denison Mines (DNN) to sector perform from underperform.
• Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Investment Technology (ITG) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.

In case you need to be reminded to look closely at the books, today's poster boy for erroneous ledgers, Bernie Maddoff, should be a constant reminder. Furthermore, when you are looking at the books, remember that Benjamin Graham, mentor to "my pal Warren," advised buying stocks for less than their intrinsic value. And book value is the starting point in attempting to establish that.

Two weeks ago, I posted an update on my toxic stock picks. These were six unloved stocks where I felt the stage was set for market beating returns. The same is true again for today's market-beating group, although it is not the headlines that tied this group together, but their standout bargain metrics.

Analyst Upgrades

• Soleil upgraded Starwood Hotels (HOT) to buy from hold, citing accelerating RevPAR comps and valuation. The firm upped its target for shares to $57 from $55.
• TD Newcrest upgraded Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) to speculative buy from hold based on valuation.
• BMO Capital upgraded Power Integrations (POWI) and ON Semiconductor (ONNN) to outperform from market perform based on valuation. The firm has a $45 target on Power Integrations and a $9 target on ON Semiconductor.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Reliance Steel (RS) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• AXA (AXA) was upgraded to add from neutral at WestLB.
  

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded T. Rowe Price (TROW) to buy from hold due to valuation and solid core trends. The firm raised its target on shares to $57 from $55. Note the firm downgraded Franklin Resources to hold from buy (see below).
• KeyBanc upgraded U.S. Steel (X) to buy from hold based on stable domestic cost environment in 2010 and likelihood of sustained higher spot pricing. The firm has a $65 target on shares.
• Goldman upgraded Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) to buy from neutral, citing oil leverage, sizable resource base and free cash flow. The firm raised its target to $90 from $88.
• Darden (DRI) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Carnival (CCL) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• AmerisourceBergen (ABC) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.

Analyst upgrades:

• Wells Fargo upgraded Prudential (PRU) to outperform from market perform. The firm thinks the company is in a better position than its peers and will be able to more effectively exploit M&A opportunities.
• UBS upgraded Reliance Steel (RS) to buy from neutral based on potential growth through M&A and valuation. The firm raised its target to $50 from $49.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Eastman Chemical (EMN) to buy from hold on expectations the company's portfolio transformation will drive higher normalized earnings power, which the firm believes is not fully reflected in consensus estimates. Deutsche raised its target price on shares to $70 from $62.
• Amylin Pharma (AMLN) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Cephalon (CEPH) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Acuity Brands (AYI) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Hold from Sell as it believes earnings estimates and valuation multiples could expand should Congress extend insurance coverage to the currently uninsured. The firm raised its target on shares to $38 from $29.
• JPMorgan upgraded Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Neutral from Underweight on expectations the company's fixed income business will drive earnings.
• KeyBanc expects U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) to benefit from a global recovery in flat-rolled products and a potential stabilization in energy end markets. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Hold.
• Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
• Pinnacle Financial (NASDAQ: PNFP) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Stephens.
• BP Plc (NYSE: BP) was raised to Buy from Hold at ING Group.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company's top-line growth rate could be more sustainable than expected and its operating margins could recover given due to less retail discounting. The firm raised its price target on shares to $97 from $65.
  
• UBS upgraded King Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: KG) to Buy from Sell based on expectations that Sandoz will settle patent litigation regarding Skelaxin after last weeks settlement of Clarinex with Schering-Plough (SGP).
  
• Jefferies upgraded Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) to Buy from Hold as it believes steel prices and demand are close to near-term bottoms. The firm raised its target on the stock to $44 from $25.
• Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Nestle (OTC: NSRGY) was lifted to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

I made it through mid-year of tracking my 2008 picks from last December and then -- Wham! -- I went from a slight advantage to being humbled badly by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all of the horrors since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

The master is still the master, Warren Buffett and his life's work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) beat me easily as well as the three indices I tracked.

For the most part, unless you started shorting stocks, there was no place to hide and most of my picks were big losers. There were two that beat Buffett and the market. The defense sector was the defensive sector it was supposed to be with Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) doing well on a relative scale. The other place you could have a morsel of stability was utilities and Huaneng Power International (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) lost less but not by much.

John Reese is an expert in analyzing the investment criteria of "legendary" advisors with time-tested strategies. And one market approach that may be of particular interest to investors during the current period of market turmoil is the value strategy developed by Benjamin Graham. (For more on this strategy, see our other post, "Three Rules of Value Investing".)

In his Validea newsletter, John reese explains, "Benjamin Graham -- considered the greatest investment guru by Warren Buffett -- built his reputation by using an extremely conservative, low-risk approach to investing." Buffett, incidentally, was Ben Graham's student.

Reese continues, "To Graham, preserving one's original capital was every bit as important as netting big gains. Having lived through the 1929 market crash, it's no surprise that the strategy Graham laid out in his classic book The Intelligent Investor was a conservative, loss-averse approach.

"To Graham, an investment wasn't something that could be turned into quick, easy profits; anything that offers such 'easy' rewards also comes with substantial risk, and Graham abhorred risk. In terms of specifics, Graham's approach limited risk in a number of ways, and my Graham-based model lays out several of those methods.

After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

Only Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) remained in positive territory, down from five stocks that were up in the last report. Sometimes, the reasons for the downslide were more obvious than they were in the cases for my picks. The cutting in half of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been reported often, as the largest independent oil refiner in North America has had its profit margins squeezed.

Loews Corporation (NYSE: L) has been hurt by its insurance interests and helped by its holdings -- a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index is narrower than in the past.

If you were looking for help from the economic front or from the oil patch today to help out the market, that wasn't in the cards. Home prices plunged by a record 15.3% from may 2007 to May 2008. Consumer confidence also came in at a 16-year low. From bottom to top to bottom we had more than a 150 point trading range in the DJIA today. These are the unofficial closing levels:

• DJIA 11810.04 (-32.89)
• S&P 500 1314.54 (-3.46)
• NASDAQ 2368.28 (-17.46)
• 10YR T-Note 4.105% (-0.063%)
• 52-week lows
• Top 10 Analyst Calls

Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) saw a sharp rise with shares up 15% at $4.20 late in the day after the company announced a large IRS refund and a $1 billion buyback to retire close to half of its stock.

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) hit the 52-week low list and a multi-year low earlier today before recovering list after the FDA delayed a decision on its anti-clot blood thinning drug, with shares down some 1.5% at $46.87 in the final minutes today.

Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) saw shares rise a sharp 7% with shares at $27.88 in the final minutes today after the company raised guidance.

Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) saw shares up after the company raised its own guidance again. Its shares were only up 0.5% at $73.85 in the final minutes of the trading day. Shares were up over 5% at the start.

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) saw a drop after the company came clean and fessed up that high fuel prices and low demand for premium delivery services were hurting business domestically and abroad. Shares were down 6% at $62.26 late in the day.

Platinum Equity focuses primarily on buying non-core assets from major companies. It's complex stuff but the firm has built a strong system to facilitate deals, such as with transition plans, long-term strategies, HR and so on.

And it's paying off. This week Platinum Equity sold PNA Group Holding to Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS) for about $1.1 billion.

Keep in mind that Platinum picked up PNA in 2006 for a cheap $17.5 million. What's more, the firm was able to recap the company and take out a special dividend for $181 million last year.

It's time to make some major changes, something I have said before. I am not the first to suggest this and I am quite sure I will not be the last. General Electric (NYSE: GE) needs to take some serious action to add shareholder value. Apparently, Jeffrey Immelt was very embarrassed after last quarter's earnings announcement, when the company reported disappointing earnings following Immelts' own earlier statement that they would hit their targets.

After GE sells its kitchen and laundry appliances, which is on the block now, it will still own business-producing aircraft engines, locomotives, electric distribution and control equipment, generators and turbines, and medical-imaging equipment. GE is also one of the preeminent financial services companies in the U.S. Commercial finance, consumer finance, and equipment financing and leasing together comprise the company's largest segment. Here is the formal list from the company web site:

• Appliances
• Aviation
• Consumer Electronics
• Electrical Distribution
• Energy
• Finance – Business
• Finance – Consumer
• Health-care
• Lighting
• Media & Entertainment
• Oil & Gas
• Rail
• Security
• Water

After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.

This past month saw great improvement. For the first time since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008, five of the eight stocks are up:

Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index narrowed substantially so that the three are tracking each other very closely. Stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) continue to gain significantly and their outlooks have not been shaken amid overall pessimistic economic forecasts.