After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.
Only Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) remained in positive territory, down from five stocks that were up in the last report. Sometimes, the reasons for the downslide were more obvious than they were in the cases for my picks. The cutting in half of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been reported often, as the largest independent oil refiner in North America has had its profit margins squeezed.
Loews Corporation (NYSE: L) has been hurt by its insurance interests and helped by its holdings -- a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.
If you were looking for help from the economic front or from the oil patch today to help out the market, that wasn't in the cards. Home prices plunged by a record 15.3% from may 2007 to May 2008. Consumer confidence also came in at a 16-year low. From bottom to top to bottom we had more than a 150 point trading range in the DJIA today. These are the unofficial closing levels:
Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) saw a sharp rise with shares up 15% at $4.20 late in the day after the company announced a large IRS refund and a $1 billion buyback to retire close to half of its stock.
Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) hit the 52-week low list and a multi-year low earlier today before recovering list after the FDA delayed a decision on its anti-clot blood thinning drug, with shares down some 1.5% at $46.87 in the final minutes today.
Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) saw shares rise a sharp 7% with shares at $27.88 in the final minutes today after the company raised guidance.
Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) saw shares up after the company raised its own guidance again. Its shares were only up 0.5% at $73.85 in the final minutes of the trading day. Shares were up over 5% at the start.
United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) saw a drop after the company came clean and fessed up that high fuel prices and low demand for premium delivery services were hurting business domestically and abroad. Shares were down 6% at $62.26 late in the day.
Platinum Equity focuses primarily on buying non-core assets from major companies. It's complex stuff but the firm has built a strong system to facilitate deals, such as with transition plans, long-term strategies, HR and so on.
Keep in mind that Platinum picked up PNA in 2006 for a cheap $17.5 million. What's more, the firm was able to recap the company and take out a special dividend for $181 million last year.
It's time to make some major changes, something I have said before. I am not the first to suggest this and I am quite sure I will not be the last. General Electric (NYSE: GE) needs to take some serious action to add shareholder value. Apparently, Jeffrey Immelt was very embarrassed after last quarter's earnings announcement, when the company reported disappointing earnings following Immelts' own earlier statement that they would hit their targets.
After GE sells its kitchen and laundry appliances, which is on the block now, it will still own business-producing aircraft engines, locomotives, electric distribution and control equipment, generators and turbines, and medical-imaging equipment. GE is also one of the preeminent financial services companies in the U.S. Commercial finance, consumer finance, and equipment financing and leasing together comprise the company's largest segment. Here is the formal list from the company web site:
After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.
Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.
Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), oil, and specialty steel were up. I went through my watch list and found this very short list of winners:
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Reliance Steel is worth an evaluation.
First, don't think of Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) as a steel company; think of it as a 'diversified' metal processing services company.
Reliance supplies metal process services and also manufactures metal products for the construction, transportation, aerospace, manufacturing, and semiconductor industries.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.
April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.
Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.
After hitting a one-year low of $39.91 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $64.27 yesterday. This morning, RS opened at $61.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $59.75 and a high of $63.95. As of 12:20, RS is trading at $62.11, down 2.16 (-3.4%). The chart for RS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $70 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in one month as long as RS is below $70 at May expiration. Reliance would have to rise by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
RS hasn't been above $65 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $65 recently. This trade could be risky if today's earnings do not hold the stock down, but with a slumping economy, times do not look too good for steelmakers.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RS.
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.
March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.
Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says U.S. Steel is a puzzle, and he ponders how to play it here.
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) presents the ultimate conundrum. It is hitting on all cylinders, courtesy of the incredible demand for steel domestically because of pipelines. And it is finally not suffering from dumped imports, because the dumpers are from countries growing so much faster than we are that they need all the steel they can get - China, for example, is struggling to build its own share instead of dumping.
John Surma, the CEO, has taken this once-great company right back to greatness with a rise from $9 to $127 in five years. That defies gravity. He has done that by cutting labor costs and growing the business, he has done it by emphasizing areas he can dominate and cutting ones he can t. And he has done it by taking advantage of the 30 bankruptcies in this sector, leaving him one of the few publicly traded companies left, including Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take), which is a great company, AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) (Cramer's Take), which levitates all of the time on takeover talk and then DOESN'T come in, and Reliance (NYSE: RS) (Cramer's Take), which is another fave of mine.
The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.
While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.
The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke's calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.
It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed economic stimulus package has bi-partisan support and calls for an estimated $156 billion of tax rebates ranging from $500 to $1,000 (+ $300 for each child) that might show up in May.
If we are going to add on to our already humungous joke of national debt, than I want to invest this capital in something that will bring a higher return on invested capital (ROIC) than the paltry one time mad money. That expenditure should be for national infrastructure projects like roadways, bridges, tunnels, and waterways.
We have all heard about the poor condition of our national infrastructure and the hundreds of billions of dollars of repair work and replacement that is desperately needed.
This alternative would bring visible results that every single person in the country would benefit from and improved linkages always stimulate economic growth. Road improvements even reduce fuel consumption by shortening routes and reducing friction both strategically and physically.
Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.
The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).
Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.
After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.
It's time to make some major changes, something I have said before. I am not the first to suggest this and I am quite sure I will not be the last. 
After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and 
Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few,
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while 
It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed 
The Wal-Mart Weekly: Retailer accused of sweatshop conditions in Bangladesh
Fog clearing - maybe. Clear skies - no! GE, JNJ, MRK, PG, RTN, WFC
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A fighting chance for the credit markets.
