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Will Union Pacific Break Through $100?

Union Pacific (UNP) train engineThe shares of Union Pacific (UNP), which I first discussed here on March 27, 2009, at a price of $43, have failed three times this winter to break through major, psychological resistance at $100. Needless to add, if you haven't already, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits if you're in near $43.

However, those investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position in UNP, but keep in mind that the journey to $120 probably will not be completed in 2011.

Continue reading Will Union Pacific Break Through $100?

Canadian Pacific and Canadian National: Riding the Rails

Canadian Pacific logo"Once written off as a 'sunset' industry, North American railroads are making money hand over fist. In short, the railways are benefiting from a rising tide and the companies have a lot going for them," notes Canadian analyst Tom Slee.

The contributing editor with Internet Wealth Builder explains, "Here's a look at my newest recommendation, Canadian Pacific Railway (CP), as well as my long-time favorite, Canadian National Railway (CNI).

"Last year the six major carriers posted a 45% average growth in earnings as they booked increased volumes and increased rates.

Continue reading Canadian Pacific and Canadian National: Riding the Rails

CSX Corp.: Time to Take Some Profits?

The shares of railroad company CSX Corp. (CSX), which I first wrote about on May 1, 2009, at a price of $30.56, have surged through $60 and $70 resistance levels, and now obviously would be a good time to consider taking some profits, if you're near $30 with CSX.

However, those investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position with CSX, as there's more upside ahead.

Look for CSX's 2011 revenue to increase 6% to 8%, after a nearly 18% surge in 2010. Volumes should rise 5% to 7% this year, and overall prices for transport services should rise, albeit with some softness in selected price categories. Any above-trend U.S./global GDP growth rates will improve CSX's performance.

Continue reading CSX Corp.: Time to Take Some Profits?

Canadian Pacific Railway Is Leaving the Station

Warren Buffett likes the rails, and they've been favored in these circles, too, for a long time. And one standout, Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP), first discussed here on May 1, 2009 at a price of $37.47, is just about to leave the station.

CP should register an impressive 8-11% revenue increase in 2010. Margins should increase. Further, the long-term trend looks just as good: the global upturn, albeit with fits-and-starts, in commodity shipments (potash, coal) will continue, and look for the pace to quicken in 2011. Meanwhile, increases in CP's railroad efficiency add to the positive story.

Continue reading Canadian Pacific Railway Is Leaving the Station

Ride the Rails: Canadian Railway (CNI) and Norfolk Southern (NSC)

"One of the first things I learned in this business was to keep an eye on the Dow Jones Transportation Index. Often referred to as the 'Canary in the Coalmine', it's one of the few worthwhile market indicators," suggests Tom Slee.

The contributing analyst with Internet Wealth Builder explains, "An upward movement in the Dow Industrials is only sustainable if confirmed by the Transports. As traders say, one 'makes', one 'takes'. Further, the Transports have led every major rally since 2004. So with our canary alive and well, I remain very encouraged."

Continue reading Ride the Rails: Canadian Railway (CNI) and Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Berkshire Hathaway buying Burlinton Northern Santa Fe

A major acquisition is coming to light this morning, as Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) has announced that it is acquiring Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI). The deal calls for BRK to dish out $100 per share in cash and stock for the 77.4% of BNI shares that BRK doesn't already own. The deal will cost BRK $44 billion.

The acquisition gives us a glimpse into the mind of the Oracle of Omaha, BRK's CEO Warren Buffett. He feels that the "country's future prosperity depends on it having an efficient and well-maintained rail system." Buffett is betting that railroads are going to do well, which would stem from prosperity in the American economy.

Continue reading Berkshire Hathaway buying Burlinton Northern Santa Fe

Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

Is it time to ride the rails? In Gordon Pape's The Internet Wealth Builder, analyst Tom Slee reaffirms his buy rating on Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), his top pick in the sector.

"Burlington Northern is my preferred choice in the railroad industry. At first glance, Burlington Northern had a particularly bad first quarter.

"Profit was $0.86 a share, down sharply from $1.30 a share the year before. However, when unusual items such as an unfavourable coal rate decision are excluded, operating earnings amounted to a much more acceptable $1.13 a share, well above the 96c analysts were looking for.

Continue reading Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

"It's hard to find any good news these days but I was pleasantly surprised with the third-quarter railway results, as almost all of the 'class 1 carriers' reported better than expected earnings," notes analyst Tom Slee.

The contributing editor to Gordon Pape's Internet Wealth Builder explains, "Several rail stocks are starting to look attractive at these depressed levels and Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) remains my preferred choice in the group." Here's his outlook.

"Even with the economic downturn starting to bite, reduced fuel costs and increased freight rates offset lower volumes. Equally important, the companies remain cautiously optimistic despite the miserable outlook.

"They are confident that further freight rate price increases in the 4% to 5% range are sustainable and will still allow them to undercut inefficient truckers.

"Unfortunately, none of this prevented the stocks from being battered during the market collapse. However, I think that fourth-quarter profits are likely to remain strong and the longer term outlook for railroads remains favorable.

"Burlington Northern continues to power ahead. A shrinking economy must eventually take its toll but there was no sign of any weakness in BNI's third-quarter results. Operating earnings came in at $1.91 a share, up 29% from $1.48 in 2007.

Continue reading Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

CSX beats expectations, but I'd be careful about buying it

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a transportation company whose competitors include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday. The results weren't bad, driven in part by a drop in energy costs and an effort to keep costs under control.

Revenues increased 18%, approaching $3 billion. Earnings per share from continuing operations skyrocketed 40% to $0.94. As management pointed out, distributors are exploiting railways to the advantage of their supply chains. This is cool for shareholders of CSX, who obviously are hoping their company can successfully navigate the tough economic landscape that we're all trying to find maps for. And if oil prices continue to fall, then CSX may find it easier to manage its operations.

And there's another positive. According to this source, CSX beat analyst expectations by a penny. Unfortunately, according to that same source, management believes that it will hit the lower end of the spectrum in terms of its previous guidance. CSX is looking to earn between $3.65 and $3.75 per share for the fiscal year.

Taking everything together, I'm not sure I'd want to enter CSX at this time. It is well off the 52-week high, but it's not exactly near the 52-week low, either. Even though the energy picture might be moderating for the company, and even though its business does offer a compelling transportation service, I think a macro slowdown might send shares back toward the low. And according to this source, freight volume declined by over 2%. Problems in the automotive industry are negatively affecting CSX. Heck, problems in many industries will be with us for a while. CSX will see its operations pressured. And, again, that tells me that I'd have to see a big drop in the stock to find it attractive at this point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'

"Railroads are a play on three big secular themes: the drive for increased energy efficiency, growth in coal and the agriculture boom," says Elliott Gue, a energy sector expert who has just returned from Japan where he was covering the G8 Summit.

Meanwhile, in his The Energy Srategist, he states, "Railroads are now among the most fuel-efficient forms of freight transport available." Here, he offers a bullish review of Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP).

"My long-held thesis on the group has been that the railroads are no longer totally dependent on the US economy for their growth.

"It's no longer appropriate to look at this sector as viciously economy sensitive. The traditional relationship between the broader market and the rails has been breaking down for several years, but this trend appears to be accelerating.

"In 2007, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the average railroad moved a ton of freight a distance of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That makes freight trains roughly three to four times more fuel efficient than trucks.

"Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the US and has long been one of my favorites. The company's network is nearly 33,000 miles long and is concentrated in the West and Midwest. It also offers a convenient example of the bullish forces at work for the rails, particularly in the coal and agriculture industries.

Continue reading Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'

KSU & BNI: Riding the rails to profits

"Having spent a lot of time recently studying the North American transportation industry, my conclusion is that trucking is on the decline while the railroads are poised to increase market share," notes Tom Slee.

The contributing editor to Gordon Pape's Internet Wealth Builder states, "The logical conclusion: buy rail stocks now." Here he looks at Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI).

"Who would have thought it? Railways are having a good year. They were supposed to be hunkered down, riding out the recession. Instead, the old iron horse is thriving.

"Surging demand for commodities is more than offsetting a slump in building materials shipments. Even higher energy costs are proving a plus for the railroads. Each jump in oil prices gives them a bigger edge over their gas guzzling competitors: trucks.

"Most important, the rails are able to raise rates despite the economic downturn. Their surcharges are sticking. Yet the stocks are out of favour.

Continue reading KSU & BNI: Riding the rails to profits

Riding the rails with CSX Corp. (CSX)

"The railroad sector is one of the few reliable groups in today's market; with solid pricing power, these companies have a solid future moving forward," says contrarian Chris Johnson.

"We are adding CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) as a long position to the Insightful Investor portfolio. Here's his look at the stock, and an options play for those seeking leverage.

"Last week, our Earnings Tip Sheet highlighted CSX as a bullish pick ahead of earnings. The stock was positioned for a jump according to our Behavioral Valuation approach. One week and a positive earnings report later, we're looking to increase our exposure to the company.

"CSX has now reported earnings results that handily beat both the analyst forecast and the whisper number. The company overcame softness in some sectors through increased shipments in ethanol and grain as well as increased foreign demand for coal.

"Rail companies appear strong moving forward, given that rising crude oil prices are forcing companies to use more cost-efficient means to ship their goods.

"What's more, CSX was the first of the 'big four' rail companies to report earnings. The company should thus benefit from positive reports when its competitors enter the earnings confessional.

Continue reading Riding the rails with CSX Corp. (CSX)

CSX jumps 10% in two days

Train Railroad giant CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) recorded record revenue of $10 billion for FY2007, the first time the company has crossed that threshold. CSX also posted record gains for 4Q 2007. EPS increased 15% to $0.86 per share on net earnings of $365 million. 4Q operating income increased over $100 million to $609 million.

CSX posted good revenue and productivity growth despite being hit with big increases in fuel costs. The company also posted significant improvements in its safety record. Over the past three years, CSX has posted the highest share price gain of any major railroad in North America, gaining 10% in just the last two days.

CSX CEO Michael Ward forecasts double-digit growth in both operating income and EPS for 2008. The stock currently trades in the mid-40s and may be worth a look for investors seeking some stability in the stock market.

Always lost at Monopoly? Re-coop with a railroad stock

Readers of this space know that the preference here is for large cap companies, with demonstrated business models, and favorable long-term factors, that have the resources to ride-out short-term economic downturns, including recessions.

And in this category a railroad stock represent a prudent addition to a portfolio, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk.

Pick a railroad. Virtually any railroad. Odds are, you will do fine, long-term, as the nation continues to re-discover the valuable asset - - the national treasury, really - - of its railroads. (More on that latter topic, in a future blog.)

Here are the railroad plays, ranked by risk, with the top stock, BNI, being the lowest risk. A stop/loss, if one were to buy the stock, is also listed:

Continue reading Always lost at Monopoly? Re-coop with a railroad stock

Canadian Pacific helps keep the great north connected

The revival of the rails is not exclusive to the United States. Canada is seeing a healthy growth in railroad services, and Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) is worth an evaluation.

Analysts see 5.7% revenue growth for CP in 2008, in Canadian dollars, with grain, fertilizer and oil sands-related shipment gains offsetting declines in forest products.

Also of note: Analysts also expect CP to continue to improve rail system efficiency and fluidity, and overall asset utilization.

The above positives, combined with CP's strong free cash flow and modest pricing power, make the company an acceptance investment for moderate-risk investors. CP's modest p/e of 13 also tips the risk/return ratio to the purchase side of the scale. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for CP are C$4.27/C$4.78. [Note: Currency figures are in Canadian dollars].

The risks? Like other rails, Canadian Pacific is vulnerable to the economic cycle, hence a slowdown in the global and/or U.S./Canadian economies will hurt CP's results.

Stock Analysis: Canadian Pacific is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from CP's shares. Sell / Stop Loss for the shares in this company: $44.

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DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 06:30 AM

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