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Ralph Lauren (RL) surviving economic slowdown

Brent Archer — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 14:15:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, Earnings Reports, Good news, Options, Technical Analysis, Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)

Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL - option chain) shares are trading higher today after the company posted first-quarter earnings of $95.2 million, or 93 cents per share, blowing analysts' estimates of 72 cents per share out of the water. RL also lifted its full-year earnings forecast to a range of $4.00 to $4.10 per share, from previous guidance of $3.95 to $4.05 per share, above analysts' expectations $3.98 per share. It is looking like the slowing economic situation is not hitting RL that hard, which could also be a good sign for other high-end retailers as well. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RL.

RL opened this morning at $66.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $63.90 and a high of $66.66. As of 12:45, RL is trading at $65.78, up $4.28 (6.9%). The chart for RL looks neutral and S&P gives RL a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just seven weeks months as long as RL is above $55 at September expiration. Ralph Lauren would have to fall by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Ralph Lauren (RL) surviving economic slowdown

Ralph Lauren (RL) surviving economic slowdown originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 06 Aug 2008 14:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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How the weak dollar helps Europe, and Ralph Lauren

Peter Cohan — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Products and Services, Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)

Since January 2001, the dollar has lost much of its value. It's fallen 71% in value from the 92 cents to the Euro at which it traded back then. This is great news for Europeans who have a chance to come to the U.S.

I am teaching a group of students from Italy this month. Their friends advised them to come to the U.S. with empty suitcases so they could fill them up with clothing and other retail goods. That's because when they come here, the clothing that they buy in Europe looks to be on a 50% off sale. This leads to what may be an investment opportunity for Americans -- Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL). (Its stock is not overpriced; it's lost 39% of its value in the last year and it trades at a price earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.2 -- a P/E of 15.7 and earnings forecast to grow 12.8% to $4.51 in 2009.)

How so? The Italian students are eager to gobble up as much of its merchandise as they can. If these students are a microcosm of Europeans, we can expect them to flock to the East Coast of the U.S. during their summer break to boost their wardrobes. They also like Lacoste and Gucci as well -- both of whose products are selling at screaming discounts here for those who get paid in Euros.

Continue reading How the weak dollar helps Europe, and Ralph Lauren

How the weak dollar helps Europe, and Ralph Lauren originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 09 Jul 2008 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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JCPenney (JCP) rises on good retail earnings

Brent Archer — Wed, 28 May 2008 14:36:00 EST

Filed under: Good news, Industry, Penney (J.C.) (JCP), Options, Technical Analysis, Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)

JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) shares are trading higher after Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) announced that its fourth-quarter profit jumped 41% to $1 a share, well above analysts' estimates of 65 cents per share. RL's results were helped by the launch of the American Living line at JCP, which shows that shoppers are still buying at department stores. Also, other positive retail results from stocks like Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) are also lending a hand. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JCP.

After hitting a one-year high of $82.49 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.27 in January. JCP opened this morning at $41.16. So far today the stock has hit a low of $40.68 and a high of $42.18. As of 1:00, JCP is trading at $40.91, up $0.41 (1.0%). The chart for JCP looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just three months as long as JCP is above $30 at August expiration. JCP would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money.

JCP hasn't been below $33 at all in the past year and has shown support around $38 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in mid August) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $28, where it bottomed out in March and April.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JCP, RL, or DLTR.

JCPenney (JCP) rises on good retail earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 May 2008 14:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Analyst downgrades 8-29-07: ACI, PZZA, RL and WYNN

Kevin Shult — Wed, 29 Aug 2007 10:43:00 EST

Filed under: Before the Bell, Analyst Reports, Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades, Bad News, Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL), Stocks to Sell

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Papa John's (PZZA), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), SourceForge (LNUX), Cathay Pacific (CPCAY) and Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

Matrix downgraded shares of Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA) to Hold from Strong Buy to reflect minimal improvement to fundamentals and negative free cash flow trends.

Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform based on valuation as the firm believes shares fully reflect solid Las Vegas & Macau fundamentals and the company's development pipeline.

SourceForge (NASDAQ: LNUX) was cut to Underperform from Market perform at JMP Securities, with a $3 target, following the disappointing results.

Merrill Lynch downgraded Cathay Pacific (OTC: CPCAY) to Sell from Buy on valuation.

Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was cut to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns as they believe margin expansion will be lower than expected, softening insurance pricing will impact organic growth, and cites managements acquisition desires over aggressive repurchases...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

PolyMedica (NASDAQ: PLMD) was downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Merrill downgraded Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) to Neutral from Buy.

Morgan Stanley cut Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Underwieght from Overweight.

JP Morgan downgraded Sonic (NASDAQ: SONC) to Neutral from Overweight.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 8-29-07: ACI, PZZA, RL and WYNN originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Aug 2007 10:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Market highlights for next week: Markets closed Monday

Eric Buscemi — Fri, 25 May 2007 15:30:00 EST

Filed under: Earnings Reports, Forecasts, Conventions and Conferences, Annual Meetings, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Dell (DELL), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Tiffany and Co (TIF), Costco Wholesale (COST), VeriFone Holdings (PAY), Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)

Here is a quick look at this upcoming holiday shortened week.

Monday May 28

Markets closed for Memorial Day holiday.
PDUFA date for MedImmune Inc's (NASDAQ: MEDI) sBLA for CAIV-T.

Tuesday May 29

Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) to hold webcast at 4:30pm to discuss newly announced Mobility Solutions.
Verifone Holdings Inc (NYSE: PAY) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 4:30pm.
BMC Software Inc (NYSE: BMC) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

Wednesday May 30

Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 9am.
ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) to hold shareholders meeting at 10am.

Thursday May 31

Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 8:30am.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 11am.
Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) to report Q1 earnings after market close.
Novellus Systems Inc (NASDAQ: NVLS) to hold mid-quarter update conference call at 4:30pm.

Friday June 1

Weyerhauser Company (NYSE: WY) to hold analyst meeting at 9am.

Market highlights for next week: Markets closed Monday originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 May 2007 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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