This strategy went from being a modestly successful trade through October to a hero-sized trade in the past 45 days.

The Fed funds rate, the most widely followed interest rate the banks charge each other for overnight lending, topped out in August 2006, at 5.25%.

When the Fed started easing rates thereafter, no one at the economic think tanks forecasted anything close to what we are seeing today (namely a Fed funds rate of zero to 0.25% -- a decline of a full 5% in 17 months).

The decline in rates started out so orderly and coordinated that it seemed almost too good to be true, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high, topping 14,000 for the first time in July 2007.

However, the quarter-point cuts gave way to a three-quarter-point cut, or 75 basis points, on Jan. 22, 2008, signaling that the Fed was seeing a material breakdown in the credit and housing markets. Following that seemingly radical rate cut, just eight days later on Jan. 30, the Fed again slashed the Fed funds rate by another half point, or 50 basis points, to 3%.

From there Bernanke & Co. held steady for a couple months to see if any good would come of their efforts.

When evidence of further erosion in the credit markets surfaced with the impending collapse of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), Indy Mac, Bear Streans and Lehman Brothers (OTC: LEHMQ), the Fed lopped another three-quarters of a point off the Fed funds rate, taking it down to 2.25% on March 18.

That was considered the absolute floor at the time, a level that would stick. But that wasn't the case.

Continue reading Best Trades of 2008: #2 Getting long and staying long the 30-year Treasury bond

Best Trades of 2008: #2 Getting long and staying long the 30-year Treasury bond originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The Fed lowered interest rates more than expected and in a way that has Wall Street talking; in fact, the stock market is setting up a potentially bullish technical formation," technician Mark Leibovit, editor of Volume Reversal Survey -- often ranked among the top performing market timing services.

He reports, "The market expected a 50 basis point cut to 0.5% with a chance of a 75 bp cut to 0.25%. Some even called for a rate of 0%. The Fed made a lot of people happy, though a bit confused, by lowered the Fed Funds rate target to a range of 0% to 0.25%.

"This is the first time the Fed has lowered rates to a range instead of a an actual number. It also bring the Fed Funds rate to its lowest target rate ever. The Fed also pledged to use "all available tools" to combat a severe financial crisis and prolonged recession. The stock market likes the lower interest rate and the Dow is up 360 points, the S&P is up 44 and the NASDAQ is up 81.

"As I write, all nine market sectors are trading higher, led by Financials which are up 9.8%. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is up 17.2% after reporting its first quarterly loss as a public company.

Continue reading Top timer sees bullish technicals after rate cuts

Top timer sees bullish technicals after rate cuts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Dec 2008 16:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Finally some good housing news

Finally some good housing news originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 May 2008 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Federal Reserve's overnight rate that was reduced to 2.25% just yesterday, and sent the Dow flying 420 points into posititve territory, gave a good chunk back today. The DJIA falling 293 points to 12,099.66 means that Bernanke's magic bullets were a very short-term fix to what ails us.

Not even some positive earnings reports and falling oil prices could sustain the markets run-up. The following stories were posted by my colleagues:

• Morgan Stanley joins Goldman Sachs in helping quell bank panic
• General Mills (GIS) quarterly profit surges 61% on strong sales
• Oil extends its pullback following today's inventory report

This has to be very discouraging to the folks in Washington DC, and on Wall Street. There is no telling what tomorrow will bring but you can only cut so far before there is nothing left to cut, and you also have a dollar that won't buy much.

But one day is meaningless in the grand scheme of things, and reduced interest rates and increased stability in the financial sector has historically given way to a stronger stock market six months out. After all, that's when the presidential elections will take place and those are the high stakes games to keep your eyes on. For that reason, I expect still another rate reduction before too long so that there is time for it to take effect.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture and planning firm. He writes Chasing Value and Serious Money columns.

Dow down 293: Bernanke's magic bullet did not last 24 hours originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly announce another rate cut on Tuesday. The only open question is how much it will be. According to MarketWatch, "After the Bear Stearns news, market bets that the central bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points next Tuesday jumped, pricing in a 100% chance of such a move, compared with 88% previously."

If the Fed cuts less than .75, the markets are likely to sell-off quickly and brutally.

But, there are several reasons that the rate cut may disappoint investors. First, some Fed governors have said that inflation remains a worry. Wheat prices have tripled in ten months. The cost of food and other agricultural commodities are likely to rise. Metal commodity prices are moving up, making component costs for businesses like the car industry sky-rocket. Oil is above $100 a barrel, and that's making its way into the gas and diesel markets.

The Fed may also decide that its best way to help the economy is continue to lend money directly to banks. The size of the current facility is $200 million, but that could go up.

The cut may only be half a percent. That may be the right decision, but the market will almost certainly not see it that way.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

What if the Fed only cuts a half a point? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 16 Mar 2008 12:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

On Saturday, President Bush warned that the government must guard against going too far in trying to fix the troubled economy. "If we were to pursue some of the sweeping government solutions that we hear about in Washington, we would make a complicated problem even worse -- and end up hurting far more homeowners than we help."

"Democrats know that wait-and-see is not a responsible strategy for an economy that is teetering on the brink of recession," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. "The president continues to convince himself that inaction is the cure-all for the economic problems hurting hardworking Americans." Democrats intend to strengthen the economy with measures dealing with housing, energy efficiency, and renewable energy.

President Bush said the recently passed program of tax rebates should begin to lift the economy in the second quarter of the year and have an even stronger impact in the third quarter. But he urged caution about doing more, particularly about the crisis in the housing market.

Continue reading President warns against "overcorrecting" economy, but further Fed rate cut expected Tuesday

President warns against "overcorrecting" economy, but further Fed rate cut expected Tuesday originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 15 Mar 2008 18:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Oil surges through $109!

Oil surges through $109! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Mar 2008 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Is the declining dollar just a longer cycle than we have seen before or are there fundamental global economic forces at play, and why? How did we get to where we are now? What does the future hold? How are emerging markets like Brazil, China and India affecting the current situation?

It's not just a longer cycle. Since January 2001, the dollar has lost 64% of its value relative to the euro. There is a conscious U.S. policy to aid companies that export and to help the oil industry - since a weaker dollar causes oil prices to rise.

How did we get to where we are now?

The mechanisms for weakening the dollar are the opposite of the ones strengthening it. U.S. policy was to increase debt -- it sits at $9.4 trillion -- to cut taxes by $1.3 trillion, thus boosting the Federal Budget deficit, and to spend a huge proportion of the Federal budget on wars -- $2.4 trillion worth. If an objective credit analyst were to scrutinize the U.S. balance sheet, it would conclude that it was in bad shape - not unlike third-world countries in the late 1970s. Thus the dollar is not seen as a good store of value and it has plummeted in value.

Continue reading What are the prospects for the U.S. dollar?

What are the prospects for the U.S. dollar? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Feb 2008 14:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Oil moves higher as traders look to the Fed for further rate cuts

Oil moves higher as traders look to the Fed for further rate cuts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As the Federal Reserve starts this week's meeting today, the question that the Fed will probably be asking is not whether to cut interest rates again, but just how much of a rate cut they should make in order to help fight off a possible recession.

Last week the Fed announced a surprise 75 basis point rate cut in an attempt to soothe concerns over an American recession, and now the question is, what can we expect this time around? Since the outlook of another rate cut seems to be all but a forgone conclusion, the question becomes, what level rate cut will we see?

After last week's cut, the Fed rate is now sitting at 3.5%, and most analysts are expecting to see that drop by a half percentage point to 3% when the Fed announces it sdecision tomorrow afternoon. Some are even starting to wonder if we could see another 75 basis point drop.

Continue reading Fed likely to cut rates again, but by how much?

Fed likely to cut rates again, but by how much? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 Jan 2008 14:54:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The vice chairman of the Fed says that there is a great deal of debate within the body about cutting rates. Based on a speech by Donald Kohn, Reuters writes that "hints at a split between policy-makers that critics find worrisome, because it raises doubts about how far the Fed will be prepared to cut interest rates to shield the economy from a slumping housing market, increasing the odds of a recession."

Stated more directly, it is not clear whether concerns about inflation or recession will govern the actions by the Fed in the early parts of 2008.

If the Fed leans toward viewing inflation as the greater of two evils, the half point cut that investors expect later in the month may end up being only a quarter point. No one can guess what that will do to the market. It would be hard to quarrel with the fact that it could push the Dow down 250 to 500 points, at least temporarily. Sectors like housing and automotive could fall even further.

Debate at the Fed may have a modest effect on the economy, but it could be the undoing of the stock market.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

No direction at the Fed originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 06 Jan 2008 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading The dollar continues its fall

The dollar continues its fall originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 23 Nov 2007 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The stock market rallied yesterday after word of the Fed's rate cut spread, but don't expect to hear that type of news again any time soon. Most economists think yesterday's rate cut of 1/4 percentage point to 4.5% will be the last one until at least next Spring and by then some already are predicting that rates will go back up.

When the Fed announced the rate cut, it said that the economy was "roughly" balanced, with the risks of higher prices (inflation) and slower growth about equal -- in other words, in a neutral position. The Fed is not leaning toward a rate cut or rate increase for the next meeting in December. We may have a better idea of what the Fed is thinking when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before Congress's Joint Economic Committee on Nov. 8.

But most economists believe we are on the high side of what Bernanke sees as an acceptable inflation rate -- between 1 and 2%. The Fed's preferred inflation measure rose to 1.8% in August and Commerce is expect to release a similar rate for September. Yesterday's GDP growth rate of 3.9% surprised many economists, but they don't expect it to last.

Continue reading Last Fed cut for awhile?

Last Fed cut for awhile? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Nov 2007 10:49:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer sees good reason to own the automaker's stock now that a big raw cost has been reduced.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) got what it wanted.

It reduced the largest component of a car's cost -- health care -- to something that is a lot more like what the other guys, its rivals, have.

To me this is crucial because right now, with the Fed cutting interest rates, you should have been buying these auto stocks. But the raw inputs -- namely, health care -- were too high.

No longer.

Currently the earnings per share estimates for GM for next year are in the $3s, some high $3 and some low $3.

You just got a huge boost to those numbers from the bottom-line side. I think the Fed's rate cuts are going to help the top line because the auto companies can then offer the cut-rate financing that brings people into the showroom.

I would buy this stock off this deal if the stock stays around current prices because the possibility of a 4 handle on the earnings makes it worth the taking.

RELATED LINKS:

• Cramer: A Breakout Biotech Stock
• Top 10 Dividend Stocks of the Week

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Health care deal helps GM's bottom line originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Sep 2007 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Many analysts and traders will cite fundamentals or technicals to explain why the market might or might not rally from this level. In the end, it all comes down to sentiment and market dynamics.

In these volatile times, traders are known for rapidly switching from euphoric optimism to gloomy pessimism. For evidence of this you simply need to watch Cramer for several weeks in a row. I've found that in any given longer-term period, Cramer has a huge tendency to "flip-flop" on his opinions of companies, industries, and the overall market. But he's not to blame -- nearly all of Wall Street's short-term players are like this.

Truth is, the most recent downturn in the market (excluding Thursday and Friday) was much more than noise, and I firmly believe that the Fed cutting rates saved the market, at least over the short term (futures were pointing way down for Friday before the Fed raised).

However, I think the market has to rally if Monday is an up day. Why? Because Wall Street players, which had been so powerfully negative on the market over the last few weeks, will have to shift their position on the markets and increasing their "net-long" exposure. In doing so, they will likely be forced to cover some shorts and add to some longs -- increasing demand for stocks. I believe that this factor was a primary cause of the rocketing market on Friday and, from who I've spoken to, many funds have no adequately adjusted their net-long exposure and are waiting for a "confirmation move" on Monday.

Continue reading The basis for a rally is in place

The basis for a rally is in place originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 19 Aug 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.