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Posts with tag RateCut

Cramer on BloggingStocks: European central bank lets us all down

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the paltry half-point cut means we're headed lower once again.

Wrong!

The European Central Bank needed to move in lock step with the Bank of England. It left us hanging with a half-point cut.

That means we're sunk again.

The near-term tug of war just got uglier. Without the ECB cutting as much as the BOE, we have no reason to buy.

Period.

Last night, in a meeting with a bunch of hedge fund managers, there was uniform agreement that the market has to be bought with huge rate cuts, that you need to ignore the near-term Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) (to use the generic version of crummy earnings) and go with the Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) offering that will make it so lending will come again and demand be spurred.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: European central bank lets us all down

Fed cuts rates 50 basis points. What would Milton do?

The Federal Reserve couldn't wait until October 29th to cut rates. Instead, it slashed its Fed Funds rate 0.5% to 1.5% in a move that was coordinated with other central banks. Interestingly, Milton Friedman's acolyte, Anna Schwartz, recently observed that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, who is reportedly a student of the Great Depression, is taking the wrong approach to this crisis.

Milton Friedman is widely regarded as the economist who figured out that a lack of liquidity is the reason that the economy took such a tailspin after the crash of 1929. Schwartz, 92, co-authored A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960, with Friedman. And her assessment of Bernanke is brutal. She thinks he should be fired. The reason? She believes that he and Paulson made a huge mistake in bailing out failed companies. In her view, they underestimated the free market's ability to recover from such failures.

Scwhartz also faults them for issuing dire warnings about how capitalism would fail unless Congress passed their bailout bill. I guess Friedman and Schwartz have influenced my thinking as reflected in this post about letting free markets work and this one questioning the fear tactics used to sell their program. This morning's emergency rate cut suggests that for all the fear mongering used to sell their program, its effect has not helped the markets, which have lost $2.8 trillion since the day investors thought the bill would pass.

Milton would have let the failed institutions fail. But it's too late to know whether his ideas would have worked.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The cut lets you fold the weak hands

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you can use the bounce today to sell names with earnings troubles.

A suggestion: If you know that your company has earnings problems, you are going to get a lift today that will allow you to get out at a better price. What do I mean about earnings problems? Let's consider Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take). That was a dismal quarter. The stock would not be up if it weren't for the rate cuts.

Or how about the financials? We learned last night that MetLife (NYSE: MET) (Cramer's Take) needed a lot more capital. We have to presume all insurance companies need more capital. So get ready or sell and buy lower. Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) is in the same boat. It is not going to have a good quarter and it needs to do a capital raise. You are going to get a terrific opportunity to sell today.

I also feel the same for most retailers. We have to be very careful here because unless you are in a retailer that picks up share in hard times, you need to use the strength to sell.

What can be held? I think that you can keep the stocks with good dividends that are able to pay them. You can certainly buy stocks that are trading near their cash.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The cut lets you fold the weak hands

A mistake, Fed won't help with interest rate cuts

Most analysts believe that the Fed will not make an emergency cut in rates. The decision is a mistake and the agency will live to regret it.

According to Reuters," Federal Reserve policy-makers are expected to stop short of lowering U.S. interest rates at a meeting on Tuesday ." Bernanke & Co. will probably state a willingness to bring rates down if it feels that the economy needs to be protected.

The economy needs to be protected now. Wall Street is not the only part of America that is coming apart. The number of people out of work is rising according to the government's own data. With layoffs in the financial sector and at companies including Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), which yesterday cut almost 25,000 jobs, the mass of people out of work will continue to rise sharply.

The average middle class American has not only lost all of the equity in his home, he now faces a sharp drop in the value of the portion of his retirement invested in the stock market.

If the current situation is not an emergency, what is?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: You can't have it both ways

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this commodity collapse is giving the Fed room to cut.

As the Fed meets and the credit crisis still roars, it is worth assessing all of the chatter that the Fed can't do a thing and that every aspect of everything is all bad. I put it like that because it is hard to read anything without concluding that there will be high-double-digit defaults and that the credit markets haven been crushed and are not useful and the world is, well, coming to an end.

Funny thing: when the world comes to an end, you get a collapse in commodities, which is what is happening right now; it is something the Fed should keep an eye on. That's because there is suddenly more room to cut if necessary, and that matters because the banks need it -- they need more room to make money on net interest margins and playing the curve, because we all know that they need capital, and this is a good way to raise capital. It is the way that capital was raised for BankBoston and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Chase and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) in the old days, and it would be the same again if the Fed needs to help.

In other words, caught in all the gloom is the fact that the Fed is winning, and with winning comes flexibility. I expect nothing from the Fed, nothing, but I also want to remind people that the "Fed will raise soon" talk makes no sense whatsoever now, even though the drumbeat was really loud just a couple of months ago.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: You can't have it both ways

The Fed Beige Book Report: Hawkish talk, but no action

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released its Beige Book Report detailing economic activity among the twelve Federal Reserve Districts across the country. The pace of economic activity was quite sluggish throughout much of the country. At the same time, there have been hawkish comments recently by several Fed governors. This leads us to the question of the possibility of a Fed rate increase on the horizon.

However, one must remember that hawkish talk is quite different from hawkish action. As I have said in my book, Follow the Fed to Investment Success, "watch what the Fed does not what it says."

The Fed has given no indication that an imminent raise in interest rates is forthcoming. There have simply been hawkish comments, which are an incredibly inexpensive means of maintaining its inflation-fighting credentials. However, every time market turmoil arises, the Fed adopts a more conciliatory tone.

Continue reading The Fed Beige Book Report: Hawkish talk, but no action

Do Fed rate cuts help adjustable rate mortgage holders?

Fed rate cuts help people who hold adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) but they're less valuable to people seeking new mortgages.

That's because ARM rates reset periodically -- e.g., every year -- based on an index plus a lender's margin -- the amount a lender adds to the index, usually two percentage points or four percentage points, to set the actual interest rate of the ARM. The most common index for ARM adjustments is the one-year U.S. Treasury bill.

Last Friday, the one year treasury rate was at 1.88% -- down 3.04 percentage points below the 4.92% rate it was at in April 2007. The Fed's rate cutting has lowered the rates at the reset periods for those who already have adjustable rate mortgages. So a person who paid 2% plus the 1-year t-bill rate in April 2007 would have paid 6.92% during the last year and enjoyed a reset to 3.88% as of last week.

Continue reading Do Fed rate cuts help adjustable rate mortgage holders?

Fed cuts rates, signals pause -- Dow tops 13,000

Not at all surprising, the Federal Reserve has announced it cut its benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point, to 2%. Further, it also signaled it would pause the recent policy of rate cuts as it removed some language that was previously present in the statements regarding downside risks to economic growth.

Despite the move being fully expected, especially after today's GDP report showed the economy hasn't contracted and that inflationary pressures weren't as high as presumed, the stock market reacted positively and Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 13,000 for the first time since January. Better than expected results from General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) also added to the positive sentiment.

While the Fed slowing the pace of its rate cuts, if not pausing them altogether, might usually be considered as negative for stocks, it seems investors took the positive news that the economy may need less bolstering more into consideration this time. Sure, the housing sector, the credit crunch, consumer spending and the labor market were noted by the Fed as weak, under stress or requiring help, but the statement also mentioned that the easing policy to date "should help to promote moderate growth over time." And that is what the market may be reacting to mostly.

As we've seen the last few weeks, the market has been on a steady upward trend. Being forward looking, if investors believe the measure taken by the Fed so far and in the future will succeed, we may yet see this trend continue.

Update 3:25 PM: The initial reaction to the news has reversed its course by now and the Dow, which has topped 13,000 briefly earlier is now up only 27 points. The Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500, which have originally joined the initial rally are now in the red. Perhaps the uncertain pause isn't being accepted as well after all, especially with more and more economists warning the economy is still in a bad shape, inflationary pressures still high and that all that could definitely affect corporate profits.

Option update: Fannie Mae volatility stays elevated as shares rally into rate cut

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) is recently up $4.99 to $27.17. Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month price target to $16 from $24. FNM call option volume is 46,713 contracts, compared to put volume of 64,318 contracts.

FNM April option implied volatility of 98 is above its 26-week average of 58 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

The Volatility Index (VIX) is down 3.26 to 28.98.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

How the Fed's rate cuts stifle capital investment

With the Fed rumored to be contemplating a rare 100 basis point rate cut, it's worth considering whether this policy is doing any good. I'd say those rapid rate reductions are doing more harm. Here's why: non-stop interest rate cuts make business lose confidence in the Fed – since those cuts are ineffective – while signaling that economic conditions are desperately bad or that the Fed is panicking and unable to fix the problem.

I think the problem is that banks and other owners of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and other asset backed securities have not accounted yet for the true loss in value of these securities. Therefore corporations and others that deal with the banks don't know whether those institutions are solvent. The solution would be to write down the value of those assets and then recapitalize the banks to the extent of the write downs.

While the non-stop interest rate cuts do not solve what's ailing the credit markets, they also accelerate inflation. This causes businesses to hoard their money because they expect that it will be worth less in the future. In effect, the Fed is creating very high inflationary expectations which creates a very high hurdle rate for investments – and in a slowing economic climate, there are not many investments that can earn a high enough return to get green-lighted.

Continue reading How the Fed's rate cuts stifle capital investment

Bernanke Call: As globe quakes, will Fed cut again?

Reuters reports that like last week, the global markets are cratering. The question is whether the Fed will come in with the same emergency 75-basis-point rate cut it used last Tuesday when U.S. markets opened to damp the downturn. Here's the damage:

  • The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down 1.3%, taking January's losses close to 13%
  • Nikkei dropping nearly 4%

In addition to the $150 billion stimulus package, the Fed is already expected to cut interest rates again this week; interest rate futures show the market is betting on another 25 or 50 basis points in cuts, possibly taking rates as low as 3.0%.

But with Dow futures down 57 at 7:15 a.m., it looks this morning like it's not enough -- the Bernanke Call -- investor's expectation that his rate cuts mark a ceiling below which the market will tumble -- appears alive and well. I wonder whether Bernanke will try another emergency rate cut this morning.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Serious Money: The Fed will cut rates again -- what to do

The Federal Reserve Board and Chairman Bernanke are not done cutting. Last week before departing on holiday I posted Serious Money: 1% drop by Fed is possible and I awoke today to find that Ben is reading my posts. Today's cut is just the beginning. Today was the rough cut; next week The Fed will be sanding around the edges trying to smooth the markets out with possibly another quarter or even half a point cut.

What's the hurry you ask? I discussed that last week. The Fed needs six months for the impact to be felt by the overall economy, and more importantly, prior to us walking into the polling booths on election day. That means: cut now, polish later. You will be seeing and hearing the politicians all running in front of the parade come summer -- count on it!

The banks and retailers are up solidly today as I write this because the cut will help banks in two ways. It will create more borrowing, and the latent rate reductions in "increased margin spreads" will mean higher short term profits. The retailers are up as speculators believe consumers will head back to the stores ... that may be premature.

This morning, the market has been extremely volatile, which personally is very ironic because I am writing this from the foot of the Arenal Volcano in Costa Rica.

If you want to buy into this market, the best way to do so is to dollar cost average into the index funds and ETFs. Read last weeks post - got to run...

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Read his Chasing Value and Serious Money columns.

When a 200-point plunge causes a sigh of relief (of sorts)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has started off as much as 464 points at the open but has been rebounding since. Even at the time that I've been writing this post, the Dow narrowed its decline from about 200 points to almost 100 points. When investors have been fearing since yesterday a 500 point free-fall, they collectively sigh at a 200 point drop.

Naturally, the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 75 basis points helped cushion the blow. Futures have indeed started rebounding immediately after the announcement. But what's interesting is the reaction this move caused. Financials, home builders and retailers are rebounding, with some financials and retailers being among today's best performers. Some financials like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) are up over 3% and 3.6% respectively.

So you might say, financials I can understand. They've written down losses, their shares have declined markedly and with today's Fed cut, that could mean they've bottomed. But retailers? Hasn't everybody been talking about the consumers not having money and cutting spending? Especially come time of reset on their mortgages?

Continue reading When a 200-point plunge causes a sigh of relief (of sorts)

Weekly inventory report pushes oil prices even lower

It is hard to believe that just two days ago we were sitting here wondering if Monday would be the day we saw $100 a barrel for oil. Prices have been falling all week, and are moving sharply lower today following a bearish inventory report from the US Department of Energy.

Today's report showed that last week oil inventories fell by 400,000 barrels. I have found two conflicting reports online where one showed analysts polled by Dow Jones were expecting to see a 500,000 barrel drop, and another article showed analysts expecting the 400,000 barrel decrease that we did see. Either way, the main point is that inventories did not drop more than expected, which is what is pushing prices lower.

Prices had already been showing signs of weakness earlier in the day on mixed messages from OPEC, and all week traders have been pushing prices lower on fears of an economic slowdown.

Continue reading Weekly inventory report pushes oil prices even lower

The FOMC Halloween decision: No tricks here

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower its Federal Funds Rate target by 25 basis points to 4 ½% and to lower the Discount Rate by 25 basis points to 5%. The decision to lower the Fed Funds Rate had one dissent, and the Discount Rate decision was unanimous.

The Fed left open the possibility of additional interest rate cuts but gave no indication of future action. It also mentioned the improvement in core inflation and the equal balance between upside risks to inflation versus the downside risks to growth.

The primary concern with current Fed actions is that Chairman Bernanke will get caught behind the curve since Fed actions can take several months to a year to take effect. The GDP report this morning indicated that the economy may be more resilient than many believe. Core inflation for the moment also appears to be less of a problem.

Continue reading The FOMC Halloween decision: No tricks here

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Last updated: November 21, 2008: 08:44 PM

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