Continue reading Pimco's Gross: Ratings Agencies Lack Common Sense

Pimco's Gross: Ratings Agencies Lack Common Sense originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 May 2010 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Insurance

Continue reading Insurance Company Upgrades Beat Downgrades by 50% in 2009

Insurance Company Upgrades Beat Downgrades by 50% in 2009 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 22 Feb 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Moody's cut Sony Corp.'s (NYSE: SNE) long-term ratings from A2 to A3 today. Slowing growth, price declines, and a strong yen were given as the reasons.

The company expects a second consecutive year of losses and is getting ready to kick off a restructuring plan. Nonetheless, the credit rating agency doesn't expect the Japanese electronics firm to overcome the effects of the global financial crisis -- especially for high-end, high-margin products.

Continue reading Moody's downgrades Sony

Moody's downgrades Sony originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 27 May 2009 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Sirius XM Radio gets an upgrade from S&P -- surely you can't be serious

Sirius XM Radio gets an upgrade from S&P -- surely you can't be serious originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Apr 2009 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Standard & Poor's has slashed Motorola Inc.'s (NYSE: MOT) credit rating to junk status, saying that continued operational challenges will lead to weak cash flows.

"Revenues and profits in the first part of the year will be challenged by a narrower, somewhat-dated product portfolio," S&P's Bruce Hyman said in a statement. "Standard & Poor's also expects about 10 percent fewer handsets to be sold worldwide in 2009 at lower average prices than in 2008."

On December 1, BloggingStocks' Doug McIntyre wrote that "As hard as it would have been to imagine a year ago, Motorola may still have to dump its cell operation and perhaps put it into Chapter 11. Its fate is that grim. It needs to escape its employee and creditor obligations to make it."

The company's November 2012 notes are trading at a yield of 8.02% -- hardly a sign of a company in severe distress.

But everything the company needs to do to turn itself around will be made more difficult by a weak credit rating in an environment where it's tough for company's with good credit ratings to secure access to capital.

But the one thing we can see from this is that Carl Icahn's complaint that the company was under-leveraged may not have been the case.

Motorola cut to junk by Standard and Poor's originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 07 Dec 2008 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As U.S. stocks continue to struggle under seemingly unrelenting selling pressure, tech-sector heavyweight EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) plunged today into single-digit territory for the first time in more than two years. In fact, EMC earlier fell to $9.35, its lowest price since August 2004. However, today's losses are simply an extension of the stock's long-term trend -- EMC has steadily declined since November 2007 under pressure from its 10-month and 20-month moving averages.

The drop into single digits is troubling for EMC, since the round-number $10 region has provided support for the shares for more than 5 years. The stock hasn't closed a single month below this area since April 2003, and it's only made a few short-lived forays below double-digit territory in the intervening months. In fact, prior to today, the equity's annual low stood at $10.10.

EMC pared its losses by the close and settled today 3% lower at $10.12, but the stock isn't out of the woods yet. The multi-year low tagged earlier could prompt some analysts to reevaluate their bullish stance on this once-strong performer. According to Zacks, EMC has garnered 12 Strong Buys, 4 Buys, and 5 Holds, with absolutely no Sell or Strong Sell ratings to be found. This top-heavy configuration leaves the sliding stock highly vulnerable to downgrades or other bearish notes. Any negative commentary from the pros on Wall Street could force EMC to revisit that rarely explored territory south of $10.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

EMC Corporation plunges into single-digit territory originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Thanks to a downgrade warning from Moody's, bond insurers Ambac Financial Group (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) are sitting out today's massive rally in financial stocks. Late Thursday, Moody's announced that it may downgrade the duo's ratings by more than one notch due to rising losses from subprime mortgage debt. So far today, the news has prompted a 7% drop in MBIA shares, and a slump of nearly 8% for Ambac.

In a statement, Moody's said, "Because both Ambac and MBIA are meaningfully exposed to the risk of U.S. subprime mortgages and other residential mortgage products, the revised assumptions are expected to have a significant impact on the firms' capital positions and multi-notch downgrades are possible." Specifically, the "A2" insurance financial strength rating of MBIA's insurance unit is under review, as is the "Aa3" insurance financial strength rating for Ambac.

Neither bond insurer seems particularly pleased by Moody's decision. Jay Brown, chairman and CEO of MBIA, said that the review reflects "inherent flaws" in the ratings company's logic, and added that his company has a capital cushion of more than $3 billion. Ambac's chairman and chief executive, Michael Callen, noted his "surprise and disappointment" at the news, and added that "Moody's ratings actions continue to cause confusion, uncertainty and the risk of material economic damange if their assumptions ultimately prove to be too onerous."

Despite today's plunge, MBI and ABK remain poised atop support from their respective 10-week moving averages. Both bond insurers have endured massive price plunges amid subprime-related fallout, but they've recently rebounded. Ambac now boasts a 60-day relative-strength reading of 381% versus the S&P 500 Index, while MBIA's is 312%.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

Ambac Financial and MBIA Inc. plunge on Moody's downgrade warning originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 19 Sep 2008 12:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Moody's (NYSE: MCO) is thinking of releasing a new ratings system that does not use letters, but has numeric ratings and "warning labels" for securities that may be difficult to analyze.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "one of the most significant changes being considered by the parent of Moody's Investors Service: a new, 21-point numerical scale to rate structured securities." The new system would also help investors look at CDOs and other risky investments differently from corporate bonds.

The whole exercise is bogus. Moody's could have employed a similar system long ago. Why are numbered ratings any different from those that use letters? Why didn't the firm have a systems that indicated the risks in complex securities such as CDOs and other structured investments?

The Moody's move is simply an attempt to try to hide and rectify the substantial flaws in the system that exists now. And, it is a feeble attempt to boot.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

New ratings system for Moody's (MCO) is cover-up of past errors originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Feb 2008 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A piece in Barron's (subscription required) looks the massive failure of ratings agencies Standard and Poor's, which is part of McGraw-Hill, (NYSE: MHP) and Moody's (NYSE: MCO) that led to extremely rapid downgrades of subprime debt and the CDOs that held it, wreaking havoc in the marketplace.

Congress and pretty much everyone else is investigating and according to Barron's, "Moody's and Standard & Poor's have held far too strong a grip on the industry for anyone's good. It is high time for a change." The magazine writes about the inordinate power that the 2 firms have, and suggests reforms, including breaking up the "partner monopoly" that has given the agencies such great returns.

With their credibility at an all-time low, Moody's and S&P are very vulnerable to increased regulation -- and with good reason. The lush returns Moody's boasts could be coming to an end.

The stock has justifiably pulled back but, with a valuation still near $10 billion, there could be a lot farther to fall. This is all a mess that Jim Chanos predicted this mess, saying that Moody's is "no longer a referee on the playing field, they are actually playing at this point. So although they are wearing an umpire's outfit, they have a Yankees hat on and I think that's the real problem, in that they are so entwined in the structured finance business."

Moody's brand is probably irreparably harmed, and reforms could cut into the company's moat big time. The days of Moody's as a great short opportunity might be over, but this is still a stock to stay away from.

Do Moody's and S&P have any credibility left? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Dec 2007 16:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading CBS bomb 'Viva Laughlin' canceled after 2 episodes -- what's next?

CBS bomb 'Viva Laughlin' canceled after 2 episodes -- what's next? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 24 Oct 2007 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

ABC bests NBC in latest Nightly News ratings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Sep 2007 18:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I was invited to comment on an article in the New York Times about Jim Cramer and his apparent inability to fully grasp why so many of us don't like him. The piece serves to give grand exposure to one of the main reasons that I myself don't like him. Come with me now on a short tour of words.

The first word I'd like to address is "torpedo". That is the word which Cramer used to define wealth building as a hedge fund manager. It works like this: Find a stock which is heavily overweight with little support, and sell it short. Organize you buddies to your way of thinking, then short more shares to send the longs scampering. Then move in your bears and suck up your bets.

Next, let's move to Jim's claim that his television show has, "allowed me to express my innate insanity, in all its glory, to everyone who might be interested." That's a fine statement for any individual who is willing to stand by it but Cramer also stated, "there seems to be a market for this kind of idiocy." So he flaunts his ability to act like a goon but then comes back to indicate that it really does go against his grain.

Then the man issues a statement as poignant as, "I remain completely and utterly repulsive to myself... I'm an arrogant jerk." Be that as it may, someone really should send that man for some counseling. If I'm not mistaken, that statement (or something similar) is warned about within the first three chapters of the psychology text book How To Recognize Suicide Bait . Add an additional quip such as "I wake up in a pool of self-loathing", and we have reason to remove the garage door and to take all sharp objects from the house. If I recall my law enforcement schooling, isn't "self loathing" that stuff they make serial killers out of?

Now if Cramer was to read this, and I'm near certain he won't, he'd probably come up with some meandering explanation that I've taken his statements out of context and that his words weren't meant as literal. Therein lies the single biggest reason why I cannot stand Jim Cramer. He has proven to me in plain fact and by his own text that you simply cannot trust one word that comes out of his mouth. Yeah, he's rich all right, but at what cost?

Dear Jim Cramer: Why we don't like you originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 31 May 2007 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the first time, Nielsen will be offering data on what people watch on television outside of their homes. According to the New York Times:

Beginning in September, Nielsen will release national ratings for TV viewing away from home in places like bars, hotels, gyms and offices. For decades, Nielsen has rated television viewing based on what viewers in its panel watch while at home. The moment those viewers traveled or went to the gym, any television they watched was not recorded.

This is good news for networks like ESPN, the leading provider of sports coverage, because sports are so commonly seen in bars and restaurants. Advertising rates are set based on Nielsen ratings, and sports coverage could see a pretty significant lift.

What might be most interesting is the way that Nielsen is tracking viewing in hotels and restaurants: They are providing cell phone tracking devices to 4,700 participants to take with them wherever they go. The devices can recognize what is on the television by sound. Pretty cool, huh?

Nielsen to expand ratings coverage outside of the home originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Apr 2007 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sanjaya Malakar and Howard Stern are smack dab in the middle of a high-stakes battle for America's attention.

According to The New York Times [registration required], the battle pits Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI), as led by Howard Stern, and VoteForTheWorst.com -- along with Stern's silent partners: all the other networks -- against American Idol's corporate sponsors, News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Fox Network and Idol-rights owner, CKX Inc. (NASDAQ: CKXE).

Stern's stated goal is to destroy Idol's popularity by encouraging people to vote for Malakar, whose unique hair styles and ability to bring 12-year-old girls to tears have contributed to his survival on the show despite weak vocal skills. If Malakar wins, acerbic judge, Simon Cowell, has threatened to quit the show. If Cowell did quit, Stern could indeed damage Idol's popularity -- people love to hate Cowell.

What is going on here? Your guess is as good as mine. But I think the Malakar furor is great for American Idol -- his Mohawk helped persuade General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) Today Show to lead with a Malakar story last Wednesday. Stern is trying to boost his own ratings by tapping into Idol's popularity and today's great coverage by the New York Times won't hurt Stern either.

I think News Corp. will be the winner in this skirmish, CKX and Sirius will not benefit significantly, and the losers will continue to be the other networks who try to compete with the Idol juggernaut.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns shares of General Electric and has no financial interest in the other stocks mentioned in this post.

Malakar and Stern stir up a ratings tornado originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 31 Mar 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Keefe Bruyette cut Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (NASDAQ: LEND) to Underperform from Market Perform, saying the downturn in the subprime market raised liquidity concerns on the stock.

• RBC downgraded RadioShack Corp (NYSE: RSH) to Underperform from Sector Perform, explaining that cost cutting measures are largely complete and margin expansion estimates are too aggressive.

• Shuffle Master Inc (NASDAQ: SHFL) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, citing the lack of visibility into the company's placements and potential IP protection risk in Macau. Shuffle Master was also cut to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns following the company's announcement that it will have to restate prior financial results.

• UBS downgraded shares of Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) to Reduce from Buy, citing risks to HDD demand given upcoming launches by Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) of NAND-based Video iPods. The analyst expects HDD weakness to phase in and not collapse, but sees limited growth in the HDD segment.

• Roth Capital cut WPT Enterprises, Inc (NASDAQ: WPTE) to Sell from Hold, citing valuation, reduced earnings expectations and execution risk related to bringing the online gaming business in house.

• China Eastern Airlines Corp (NYSE: CEA) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

• China GrenTech Corp (NASDAQ: GRRF) was downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna.

• RBC cut Nova Chemicals Corp (NYSE: NCX) to Sector Perform from Outperform.

• Sandler downgraded shares of OceanFirst Financial (NASDAQ: OCFC) to Hold from Buy.

• Citigroup downgraded Dollar General Corp (NYSE: DG) to Hold from Buy.

Analyst downgrades 3-13-07: RadioShack & Marvell Technology downgraded today originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Mar 2007 11:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Jefferies initiated Petrohawk Energy Corp (NASDAQ: HAWK) with a Buy rating and $14.50 target, as the firm believes Petrohawk has the right assets to pursue the "acquire-exploit-self" strategy well.

• Bear Stearns started Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) with a Peer Perform rating.

• GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME) was initiated with a Buy rating and $67 target at Nollenberger.

• AG Edwards initiated Venoco, Inc (NYSE: VQ) with a Buy rating on valuation.

• Credit Suisse started CarMax, Inc (NYSE: KMX) with a Neutral rating and $55 target.

• Jefferies considers Ultra Petroleum Corp (AMEX: UPL) the most dominant company in the Pinedale Anticline, the nation's second largest natural gas field and they expect 2007 to be a pivotal year. The firm initiated Ultra Petroleum with a Buy rating and $64 target.

Analyst initiations 3-02-07: GameStop started with a Buy at Nollenberger originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Mar 2007 11:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Needham downgraded Dell inc (NASDAQ: DELL) to Hold from Buy after the Q4 results as they now believe the company is unlikely to outperform for "at least" several quarters. They considered Dell's notebook shipments to be the biggest disappointment in the quarter.

• Deutsche Telecom ADS (NYSE: DT) was cut to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.

• JP Morgan downgraded the Nasdaq Stock Market Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's price cuts as they feel the new prices negatively impact the U.S. cash equity business.

• Baird cut Xerium Technologies Inc (NYSE: XRM) to Underperform from Neutral, citing increased spending plans and pressure from the underlying paper market that raised dividend sustainability concerns.

• First Albany downgraded Hyperion Solutions Corp (NASDAQ: HYSL) to Neutral from Buy.
  

• Sanders Morris cut Crosstex Energy (NASDAQ: XTEX) to Hold from Buy. Raymond James downgraded shares of Crosstex to Market Perform from Outpeform.

• Bernstein downgraded TXU Corp (NYSE: TXU) to Market Perform from Outperform as the firm believe the current bid from Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Texas Pacific Group will succeed.

• Merrill Lynch cut Altera Corp (NASDAQ: ALTR) to Neutral from Buy.

Analyst downgrades 3-02-07: Disappointing Dell dowgraded to Hold originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Mar 2007 11:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) shareholders should be concerned that 'Grey's Anatomy,' one of its biggest hits, jumped the shark last night.

Jump the shark is pop-culture slang indicating that a TV show has reached its peak. It derives from an episode of "Happy Days" in which Fonzie literally jumped over a shark on water skies while wearing his trademark leather jacket. The hit program just wasn't the same afterwords.

"Grey's Anatomy" didn't just jump the shark, it jumped the whole ocean with tearjerker of an episode in which the show's title character had a near-death experience after accidentally falling into the water. Somehow the effects of hypothermia didn't kill Meredith Grey and her heart started beating again after her best friend Christina Yang told everyone to take one more shot at reviving her. Of course, they did it and Grey pulled through just fine. Can anyone in the medical field tell me how often that happens in real life?

This blunder creates a problem for Disney's ABC network, which reportedly has plans to do a spin-off of the drama. The company wants to make Greys a tent pole franchise similar to the "Law and Order" and "CSI" shows which are cash-cows for General Electric Co.'s (NYSE:GE) and CBS Corp. (NYSE:CBS) respectively.

ABC may find that difficult to do. Once an audience gets turned off to a program, it's hard to convince them to go back. The advertisers know this and shift their spending accordingly.

What ABC is equivalent to McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD) putting Cheez Whiz on the Quarter Pounder or Starbucks Co. (NASDAQ:SBUX) deciding to only play music from hair metal bands from the 1980s in its stores. The network tried to fix something that wasn't broke and will pay for it over the long term.

Disney jumped with shark with 'Grey's Anatomy' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 23 Feb 2007 09:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Lehman initiated Plexus Corp (NASDAQ: PLXS) with an Underweight rating and $15.50 target.

• Wachovia started Ameristar Casinos Inc (NASDAQ: ASCA) with an Outperform rating; the firm sees upside for Ameristar through growth of existing properties that have expansions and the removal of the $500 loss limit in Missouri.

• Mattel Inc (NYSE: MAT) was initiated with a Hold rating at Sterne Agee.

• First Albany started Gaming Partners International Corp (NASDAQ: GPIC) with a Buy rating and $23 target.

• Jefferies initiated Morgans Hotel Group Co (NASDAQ: MHGC) with a Hold rating and $20 target based on valuation.

• UBS started E*Trade Financial Corp (NASDAQ: ETFC) with a Buy rating and $29 target.

• UBS also started TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (NASDAQ: AMTD) with a Neutral rating on valuation.

• Stifel initiated Saia Inc (NASDAQ: SAIA) with a Buy rating and $31 target; the firm is positive on Saia's growth and said the company should be the biggest beneficiary of further tonnage leakage from Central Freight Lines, which recently went private.

• William Blair started US BioEnergy Corp (NASDAQ: USBE) with an Outperform rating.

• JMP Securities assumed coverage of Delta Financial Corp (NYSE: DFC) with a Strong Buy rating and $13 target.

Analyst initiations 2-22-07: E*Trade started with a Buy rating at UBS originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 22 Feb 2007 11:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Goldman Sachs upgraded both The Coca-Coca Co (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) to Buy from Neutral: The upgrade for Coca-Coca was to reflect the company's recent strong results, and Pepsi's upgrade was to reflect Gatorade's expected profit re-acceleration by the second half of 2007.

• General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Markets with a $58 target based on achievable outlook and absence of any negative catalysts.

• Bank of America upgraded Colgate-Palmolive Co (NYSE: CL) to Buy from Neutral with a $74 target. The firm believes Colgate's long-term growth rate can accelerate to 12-13% from 10% on margin upside.

• Prudential upgraded shares of Avon Products Inc (NYSE: AVP) to Neutral from Underweight to reflect the company's improving fundamentals; the firm believes that news over the last six months has been getting more positive.

• Buckingham upgraded Tween Brands Inc (NYSE: TWB) to Accumulate from Neutral.

• CIBC upgraded Cablevision Systems Corp (NYSE: CVC) to Buy from Hold. Raymond James raised Lithia Motors (LAD) to Strong Buy from Market Perform following its Q4 report and guidance.

• First Albany upgraded Stamps.com Inc (NASDAQ: STMP) to Buy from Neutral, with a $19 target.

• Deutsche Bank upgraded International Paper Co (NYSE: IP), Packaging Corp of America (NYSE: PKG) and Smurfit-Stone Container Corp (NASDAQ: SSCC) to Buy from Hold. The firm believes momentum is turning and backlogs and pricing are emerging from the winter doldrums stronger than expected.

Analyst upgrades 2-16-07: Coke & Pepsi upgraded at Goldman originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Feb 2007 11:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.