The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to toughen its regulation standards, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week the agency would push Wall Street investment houses will have to reduce borrowing and rely less on short-term financing.
As part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth, people close to the situation said that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is likely to today identify up to $400B in non-core assets that could be sold. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit will confirm his pledge to cut the bank's cost base by about 20% at a meeting with analysts today. Sources familiar with the matter believe Pandit will dismiss calls for a break-up of the company.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: K Swiss, BJ's Restaurants and Ford were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Merrill expects the turnaround at K Swiss (NASDAQ: KSWS) to be difficult given weakening retail sales. Shares were downgraded to Sell from Neutral.
Jefferies cut shares of BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) to Hold from Buy due to the company's high relative exposure to the subprime mortgage markets.
Ford (NYSE: F) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns. The firm recommends taking some profits following the recent rally in shares. Shares were also cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, citing valuation, and to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
Scientists at NASA plan to put one of the twin Mars rovers to sleep and limit the activities of the other robot to fulfill a NASA order to cut $4 million from the program's budget, mission team members said Monday.
The project, which was originally supposed to run for three months, is now in its fourth year, successfully exploring the terrain of Mars. It costs NASA about $20 million to keep the project going, but due to budget cuts, the space agency is forced to put its child up for adoption, so to speak. As of yet, no billionaire has stepped up to the plate, but I am hoping that someone will soon.
For the cost of a few of your average modern missiles, we are abandoning a program that has been one of NASA's most visible and productive projects.
"The recent fits and spasms of the stock market predict tough times ahead; and ironically, that's good news for Raytheon (NYSE: RTN)," says Louis Basenese, Oxford Club Associate Investment Director.
In The Oxford Insight, he notes, "When stocks are anticipating a recession, the best offense is often defense stocks -- and there's plenty of reason to expect this defense contractor to shine, even if a recession is confirmed."
"Defense will likely remain one of the largest budget items for the United States, regardless of which political party wins the fall election. And, according to JP Morgan Securities, the defense outlays of the United States actually increase, by an average of 6.5% during recession years since 1945.
"So in the end, recession or not, as the world's fifth largest defense contractor, Raytheon's sure to enjoy steady demand.
"I'm sure you've recently read, all about the large spy satellite that became disabled and was poised to re-enter earth's atmosphere with a dangerous load of toxic fuel. What few know is that Raytheon's Standard Missile-3 was specially modified to intercept the target 153 miles over the Pacific Ocean.
Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.
The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).
Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.
Two interesting bits of news were released Friday afternoon. First, our government had decided to intercept a descending spy satellite just before it re-enters the atmosphere. They said they were doing this because of "dangerous fuel" but wouldn't this burn up upon re-entry? Then the Defense Department announced that Raytheon Missile Systems, a unit of Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) has won a $1 billion Missile Defense Agency contract boost to make 102 missiles for the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System.
Initially this was not enough missiles to help Raytheon's stock, which closed down 1% for the day to $65.65. However, when folks put the stories together in after hours trading RTN jumped 2.5% reaching $67.30 before the trading "pool" was cleared because the "lifeguards" had to go home, spoiling the late night speculators fun.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.Disclosure: I do not own shares of RTN.
President Bush recently submitted a $3.1 trillion dollar budget to congress with the biggest proposed increases in defense spending, and homeland security. The Pentagon would get a $35 billion increase to $515 billion for core programs, about 7% with war costs additional (but how much is additional?) This further supports my investment posture for this year and next that the defense sector is the place to be as I posted earlier today and many times over the past few months -- the BIG BUYS.
Some of our big defense contractors, all of which should benefit to some degree include: Boeing (NYSE: BA), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). I am not suggesting that you jump into these stocks immediately, but you should add them to your watch list. Perhaps, for some investors dollar cost averaging into them over six months would make sense. Each has a varying degree of exposure to defense spending. For example, United Technologies is the parent of Sikorsky helicopters which makes the Black Hawk. Lockheed Martin and Boeing make fighter jets. Raytheon makes defense electronics and missile while General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman supply warships to the US Navy. Northrop also makes aerial vehicles that are being used in the Iraq War.
In recent months I have been recommending that investors take a look at the defense sector as a safe haven during this erratic stock market -- erratic and down. My most recent post on the subject was Chasing Value: Raytheon (RTN) up on earnings & 2008 outlook. The defense sector has beaten the S&P 500 index for eight years running and this year may mark the ninth straight.
In a previous post I trumpeted General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) and still believe in the stock. The price-to-sales is a modest 1.33. The P/E of 16 and dividend are average, but it has a healthy ROE near 20%. If you believe the forward looking P/E it is only 14. GD makes the Gulfstream aircraft for the wealthy jet-setter and the Abrams tank for the military. How many of those will need parts or replacement in the coming years?
When I was evaluating my 2008 picks I looked at most of the large defense contractors and included RTN over GD. If you look at the chart below and the original story Chasing Value: General Dynamics (GD) looking long and flying high!, you will find I was looking at General Dynamics around $90 a share. We bought in at $88 so you know I like it even more in the area of $83 where it is trading now.
For some reason companies that are equally if not more tech focused are not thought of as tech stocks. However, can anything be more high tech than Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) that makes robotic surgical equipment, including the required software? I understand that ISRG is in the medical products industry but it is every bit a tech company. Why does that disqualify it from being discussed as a tech stock?
I would think Apple is becomming more and more a consumer products company with a retail component. It is the new Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE). Maybe it should switch to the NYSE?
January was a wild ride and February holds the promise of more of the same after yesterday's 370 point drop in the Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, was up. My two high flyers from last year, Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), were the biggest losers.
Among the indices, the DJIA lost the least and the NASDAQ lost the most. The average return for my eight picks was -7.82%. This underperformed the average of the indices that was -7.58% -- but my new stalking horse Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) bested both, so Buffett is still the man.
Now including dividends for my picks which average 3.91% divided by 12 for the one month allows for an additional .326%, reducing the loss to -7.494%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 12 adds 0.15%, reducing the loss to -7.43%. The dividends tighted things up. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.
The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:
Defense sector favorite Ratheon Co (NYSE: RTN) reported a very positive fourth quarter and an optimistic outlook for the year ahead. This has sent the stock up over 2% or about $1.50. It closed Wednesday at $63.43 and was trading near $65.00 per share midday.
Lower pension costs and a tax benefit helped Raytheon post a 64% increase in its fourth-quarter profits [WSJ -subscription required]. Net income rose to $598 million from $365 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Raytheon also said its backlog increased 13%, and it boosted its outlook for 2008 to between $3.65 and $3.80 a share.
I still think that in 2008 the defense sector will outperform the overall market. Raytheon has an above market P/E ratio of about 19, but its price-to-sales ratio of 1.17 is not unreasonable. It also pays a dividend. Although RTN is not generally considered a technology stock in the same breadth as computer and internet companies, I believe it should be and that it offers superior market value to most of them.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. He doesn't own shares of RTN.
I recently posted Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and mentioned that all of them pay a dividend. If this year is going to be as gloomy as some would have you believe, then stocks that pay dividends, as a group, will outshine those that do not.
The following are my eight picks, with the closing stock price as of my start date December 28, 2007 and the dividend yield. Last year, there were more stocks among my picks that paid a dividend higher than the S&P 500 Index average of 1.8% . This year there are only two.
A few days behind schedule, but here is my list of eight stocks. Included in the list there are two holdovers from the 2007 list of seven stocks. I do not see any value in creating an entirely new list when I have done well over the years riding the winners. This is particularly true if the reasons you bought the stock in the first place remain valid.
These eight picks for the year will be tracked monthly with updated results. The initial share prices are from December 28, 2007. They are focused on defense, energy, food, gold, metals, mining, oil, power, and every one pays a dividends. The following are my "Quick Takes" in alphabetical order with links to the complete stories.
Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is a world-class player in precious metals, diamonds, and commodities, which are all growing in demand. When the world economy is booming, all of its mining products are sought after, and when the market runs scared, gold goes up. It pays a dividend yield of 1.9% and is trading almost 25% off its 52-week high. For full story: Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.
The market's choppy / consolidating pattern continues, suggesting the need for a defensive play or two, and there are few defensive plays better than...a defensive stock, and in this category, Raytheon is worth an evaluation.
Raytheon's defense offerings include reconnaissance, targeting, navigation systems, and missile systems (Patriot, Sidewinder, Tomahawk), and radar. The company also makes radios, air traffic control systems and satellite communications systems. About 80% of RTN's sales are to the U.S. government.
Overall, analysts see modest growth in defense spending. The current Democratic Party-led U.S Congress, if it retains its majority-party status after the November 2008 election, is likely to appropriate defense dollars more carefully. Nevertheless, present/future military threats argue that above-average demand for RTN's services will remain through at least the next presidential term, which ends in 2012. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for RTN are $3.24/$3.81.
In searching out investments for 2008 -- what is likely to be a precarious stock market -- I have been touting the defense industry for the last two months as one of the stories for next year in terms of growth and safety. A press release today noted: "The benchmark SPADE Defense Index (AMEX: DXS) currently has a year-to-date gain of 21.5%, nearly 20% better than the widely followed S&P500 broad-market index."
Certainly this might have been expected in the aftermath of the September 11 tragedy, and given that the U.S remains at war in Iraq and Afghanistan. But this is just one aspect of the industry. Some companies like Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) are doing equally well in the private sector selling new planes and replacement parts for aging fleets.
Raytheon Co (NYSE: RTN) is heavily involved not just with airport security, but develops radar and monitoring systems for airport safety. This is of growing concern as the skies become more congested and airports more impacted.
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) makes military helicopters that are also used for civilian fleets and fire fighting. UTX also is a world leader in the private sector owning Otis Elevator, Carrier Air Conditioning and more.
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In recent months I have been recommending that investors take a look at the defense sector as a safe haven during this erratic stock market -- erratic and down. My most recent post on the subject was 
Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only 
In searching out investments for 2008 -- what is likely to be a precarious stock market -- I have been touting the defense industry for the last two months as one of the stories for next year in terms of growth and safety. A 
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