Welcome to Way Off Wall Street, a column dedicated to providing Main Street opinions on topics of interest to investors. Each installment highlights the views of Americans who are far removed from the canyons of Wall Street -- and who often see things more clearly as a result.

I've spent a good deal of time researching and soliciting opinions about how people are looking at their own retirement in relation to the American economic downturn. Many people are looking at retirement with the same mind-set that they've always had. In many cases, I found people believe that our economy will recover rather quickly. In others, I suspected they are intentionally blinding themselves from the truth that this could be a very long economic downturn.

Since today's retirement realities is such a big topic, I'm going to discuss it over two posts. This first one concerns the group of people who either have already retired, or expect to retire within the next five years. My next column will cover people who have more than five years until retirement, as well as those people who believe that the word "retirement" will never truly apply to them (I myself fall into the latter part of the second group).

I have been writing a lot lately about all the negative indicators that we see coming out of the housing market, so it is nice to have some positive news to discuss today! The good news comes from the Commerce Department, which announced that sales of new homes in September rose by an unexpected 2.7%.

While any rise in home sales is reason to celebrate, the jump in September is much sweeter since analysts had been planning on actually seeing a drop in the month.

On the other side of the coin, one of the main reasons why we saw such a nice jump in sales during the month could be related to the continuing decline in home prices. During the month, the median price for new homes sold was $218,400. This figure is the lowest that the market has seen since all the way back in September 2004, and marks a 9.1% drop from the same month last year. Not the best of news for homeowners out there that are already concerned about their falling home values.

Minyanville contributor Andrew Jeffery dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Put on those rose-colored glasses, it's time again for the Existing Home Sales data:

• September sales came in 5.5% higher than the previous month, at 5.18 million (annualized) compared to estimates of 4.95 million.
• Sales were 1.4% higher than last year -- the first year-over-year increase in three years.
• Inventory shrank to 9.9 months worth, from 10.6 months.
• Median home price dropped to $191,400, the lowest since April 2004.
• Distressed sales made up 35-40% of sales, with 80% of those going to owner-occupiers (higher than the usual 75%).

Per normal, the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun is as optimistic as ever. He gets paid to obfuscate the truth.

Per normal, the National Association of Homebuilders chief economist David Seiders is as pessimistic as ever. The worse it is, the better chance his group gets on the government dole.

It's messy out there in housing land, but that's not exactly news. Keep in mind that the year-over-year numbers line up against this time last year, when credit markets first seized up and home buying all but evaporated for a couple months. Easy comparisons make for premature bottom call.

Some more bad news regarding the real estate market today, as we get the numbers for foreclosures in the third quarter, and see that the foreclosure rate actually jumped by a massive 71% during the quarter.

During the period of July through September, the number of households that received at least one foreclosure notice was 766,000. This marks a huge increase of 71% when compared to the same period last year. This data came available today from the foreclosure listing agency RealtyTrac Inc.

Just how bad has the situation gotten? Well, according to RealtyTrac Inc., before the end of this year, nearly one-third of all the houses listed for sale in the country will be foreclosures, which they are now estimating will reach the one million mark. Pretty scary figures.

More bad news for the housing market today, as the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced that home prices in July were 5.3% lower than they were in July of last year.

The main culprits leading to lower July prices are, as usual, the large supply of homes available, tighter lending standards, and record foreclosures, that have resulted in sellers slashing prices in order to sell their properties. On a month to month basis, prices fell 0.6% from June to July of this year.

The drop in prices was seen universally in all regions. The only area of the country that saw prices rise on a year over year basis was the West South Central regions.

The credit crisis over the past year has already claimed a couple big name companies, and prompted the Bush administration to suggest a $700 billion bailout for the financial industry.

Remember that old joke that a conservative is a liberal who got mugged? Well, maybe we can now say that a socialist is a free marketer who just got a $700 billion government bailout.

Lost among all of the talk about whether Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke have become the new overlords of the American economy, is discussion about helping save homeowners from the Bush administration. All that was said is that homeowners want the U.S. Congress to pass the rescue bill quickly.

Democrats in Congress have other ideas. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told Fox News Sunday that " we have to do something about the mortgage crisis, not just foreclosures but the price of housing."

Schumer makes a good point, but figuring out what to do is tricky. More must be done. The consequences of massive foreclosures are too big to ignore.

I have heard the arguments before that we should not reward speculators and people who bought homes that they could not afford. That sounds great if we lived in a free market utopia. But as the last few days have illustrated, the free market ain't what it used to be.

Homeowners struggling to pay their bills must find the federal government's bailout of troubled Wall Street firms confusing.

After all, government officials have repeatedly said they would not help victims of the subprime mortgage crisis, reasoning that they should not get rewarded for making bad decisions.

It's Economics 101 that people who take bad risks will continue to do so if there are no consequences to their actions. But the $85 billion rescue of American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), the bailout of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), the possible rescue of Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM) and the shotgun wedding of Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) brings all of these cherished notions of free markets into question.

Why is the government helping companies who sold mortgages to people who they knew couldn't afford them and repackaged the loans into securities that were unloaded on unsuspecting investors -- but doing little for individual homeowners?

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Oil's surge is over. Having reached almost $150 a barrel, it now trades near $100, as of this writing. It may be lower when you read this. That's good news on many fronts. But lower oil prices aren't enough to get this economy back on track. For that, real estate, and in particular home sales, and employment need to rebound in a meaningful way. Here's why.

Let's first look at oil. It's used for many different products, from gasoline to lubricants to tires, etc. Lower oil prices will make filling up at the gas station much less painful. That will give consumers a little more money in their wallets every week. It also lowers the cost for manufacturers using petroleum in their products.

Today's housing news on new home sales in July sounds eerily similar to the post I wrote yesterday about July existing home sales. In both cases, we are given a quick headline that sounds like good news, but once you dig into the details a little deeper you realize that the news is just not as pretty as it first sounds.

Let's first take a look at the positive headline: New home sales rise in July. Great, this is exactly the sort of news that the market needs to hear. After all, weakness in the housing market has been a major catalyst to the current economic slowdown, so any good news is like a breath of fresh air. During July the market saw a jump of 2.4%. Not too shabby.

But what does this really mean?

It would seem to be stating the obvious, but the habits of home buyers will probably hold the key to whether the economy will go into its deepest recession in decades. That is the prevailing wisdom, but is it right?

According to Reuters, "a sharper housing bust would leave deep scars in consumer sentiment, which would likely lead to a deep recession." Some economists and real estate experts see home prices falling another 15% to 20% from current levels.

Real estate may be a critical part of an economic recovery, but it is not the only one. Oil and commodities recently had their sharpest correction in years. If oil moves below $100 and the price of agricultural products moves down substantially, the implied cost of living for most Americans will get much better. Under those circumstances, homeowners have more money to pay mortgages.

Wages could also rise. Recent pressure on consumer prices makes it more likely that unions and employees will press for higher compensation. In many cases, they will be turned away. But, worker demands for higher pay spread across the entire economy should yield some improvements in how much people take home.

Housing prices are important, but they are not the only game in town.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Want a classic example of how the real estate slump is affecting not only the construction industry and home owners, but also states and municipalities, as well?

Consider the plight of the nation's largest city, the City of New York.

Wall Street's mortgage losses have ballooned to such a degree that some firms may pay small or no taxes for years, Bloomberg News reported. That's right: no taxes for years.

Rising tax revenues, no more

For much of the current decade, indeed for much of the 1990s as well, the city could count on rising tax revenue from Wall Street firms -- based on increased securities industry business -- as a starting point for the city's budget. Not now: the city, which derives about 20% of its revenue from Wall Street businesses, is projecting a decline in revenue from Wall Street firms -- a contraction that is expected to widen the this year's $1.5 budget deficit in fiscal 2009 to $2.3 billion next year, fiscal 2010, and then to $5.96 billion in fiscal 2011 budget deficit, Bloomberg News reported. The city's budget for fiscal 2009 is $59.1 billion.

The Wall Street recession has put the social service goals of Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg on hold, for the most part. Bloomberg has already asked city department and agency heads to implement a 6.4% spending cut; he will likely ask department heads to identify other cost savings of up to 3%, should revenues continue to come in below projections.

Start with a few speculative stocks. Add a distressed-debt corporate bond portfolio, and two quantitative-based hedge funds, and a momentum-based hedge fund for the British pound/Japanese yen currency pairing.

Sounds like a typical, assertive portfolio for a wealth management group or, perhaps, for an accredited investor.

But a public pension fund?

Public pension funds in the United States are increasing bets on high-risk hedge funds and real estate in an attempt to fill deficits in retirement plans and recover ground, due to the worst performance by pension funds in six years, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Public funds, which manage more than $2.45 trillion in assets, are trying to reverse losses averaging 5.5% for the year ended June 30, according to Merrill Lynch data, and stem the tide of deficits, Bloomberg News reported. The State of New York's comptroller is asking its Legislature to increase its alternative investment spending cap; in February, the State of South Carolina upped its alternate investment / private equity / real estate cap to 45% from 0%.

'Investment distortions of the very worst sort'

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Thursday he doesn't like the sound of the new stance by state / local governments, if the aforementioned represents a trend.

"I view it as another manifestation of the U.S. stock market slump," Langan said. "The underperformance of stocks and the drive for outsized return on equity is leading to investment distortions of the very worst sort. We saw this in the mortgage market with their securities. It got to a point that if the interest rate was high enough, banks made the loan. We've seen it in oil, where the unattractiveness of stocks led institutions to dive into oil futures, driving up prices well above historic gains. And now it looks like public pension funds are catching the bug or flu."

I've been told that companies that are poised for long-term success operate based on a respect for the intelligence of their customers. In an interview on CNBC, Robert Toll, the CEO of leading homebuilder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) demonstrated his lack of respect for consumers: "When we hold specials, which are not really specials, but just some reconfigured incentives to make it look as though something special is being given away . . ."

That's right, the CEO of a leading homebuilder went on CNBC and announced that the company's heavily-marketed sales promotions are essentially total bull crap -- just "reconfigured incentives designed to make it look as though something special is being given away . . ." Why would he say that? With that one statement, Mr. Toll has told anyone who might have dealings with his company -- either as home buyers or as investors -- that the company's tactics aren't exactly straightforward and honest.

Just as a point of reference, this is the same guy who, back in November, essentially blamed the housing downturn on the pessimistic media. Oh, and by the way, this is the company that couldn't even get the chairman's daughter to close on a deal she'd agreed to.

So, if you're intrigued by an ad for a good deal on Toll Brothers homes, remember: it's just reconfigured incentives designed to make it look as though something special is being given away. The pounding that the market has given the stock over the past few years may be something similar.

Donald Trump Jr, the rather uncharismatic son of reality television personality Donald Trump, is looking to set up his own fund to invest in India's until recently red hot real estate market.

The younger Trump told Bloomberg that "The fund will be for acquisitions of real estate in the high end, and across the spectrum. The market place is beginning to understand and appreciate luxury, so there is a great opening for us there, as well as in resorts.''

He's looking to raise $1 billion, but given how cheap investors have become of late, I'm skeptical. What exactly are his credentials? He's 30-years-old, works for daddy, was a judge on his father's reality show, and -- the icing on the cake -- he was ousted from the board of the condo association where he lives.

If this guy can raise a billion bucks, then the economy is considerably stronger than we're giving it credit for ... or investors are considerably dumber.

But for now, these are just "plans" to raise "up to" $1 billion. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the money to role in, and frankly, this looks like a publicity ploy designed to create the impression that Trump Jr. is someone to be taken seriously.

A government bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would cost U.S. taxpayers $25 billion over the next two years under a plan being proposed by the Bush administration, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.

The July 14th proposal by the administration would grant the Secretary of the Treasury temporary authority to purchase obligations and other securities issued by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Congress is expected to vote on the proposal soon.

CBO used historical data to estimate expected losses on the different types of credit risk the GSE's (government-sponsored enterprises) have in their portfolios.