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Recession posts

All-American stock #3: Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

colgate palmolive stock to buyMy final all-American brand is Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). The company is well-known for its toothpaste and toothbrushes. But Colgate-Palmolive also owns dozens of strong brand names, including Irish Spring, Speed Stick, Ajax, and many others.

Some investors may think of Colgate-Palmolive as a dull stock. That's fine by me.

The shares are far less volatile than most stocks on Wall Street. Even though the market overall is well below the highs it reached in the third quarter of 2007, shares of Colgate-Palmolive were never punished nearly as hard.

Continue reading All-American stock #3: Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

Sears offering hedge for consumers who lose their job -- good idea?

Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), a retailer whose competitive colleagues include Target (NYSE: TGT), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), wants to improve its brand equity and find a new path to growth. As such, it's willing to employ all kinds of initiatives, especially ones that will form a nice image with the consumer during this dreadful economic contraction.

According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), Sears is trying out a program that offers protection against the risk of investing in an expensive appliance during a time when job security is not as secure as it used to be.

The program will run for a specified time period beginning next week, and the basic gist is this: buy an appliance priced $399 or higher on a Sears credit card and, and if you lose your job, Sears will credit one twelfth of the cost every month. Still no job after one year? Keep the appliance, your debt will be forgiven.

Continue reading Sears offering hedge for consumers who lose their job -- good idea?

Auto sales show signs of stability

Auto sales continued to drop in June, but we are starting to see signs that sales may be beginning to stabilize a bit.

The auto industry is still in deep trouble. It is going to take a while before things get back to normal, but before things can even start to improve, they have to stop worsening, and that's what may be happening.

Continue reading Auto sales show signs of stability

Cramer on BloggingStocks: More stimulus, please!

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the jobless number shows the folly of thinking we can get through on what we have.

Tough data point, the employment number. Lagging. But when you see it, the number doesn't feel like it's lagging. In fact, it is thesis-busting, as in, "We aren't getting better, let's stop fooling ourselves." It just feels like, "Come on, we know the truth, we need to have a second stimulus plan."

That will be the battleground for the second half of this year: further budget-busting vs. putting more people to work, because we sure aren't doing a great job of putting them to work.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: More stimulus, please!

Shoe drops on Nike

Nike (NYSE: NKE) has thus far navigated this downturn exquisitely. It has maintained sales overseas, in particular in Asia. Nike's legendary supply-chain mastery and inventory management skills have likewise served it very well. So it was a shock when the shoe giant announced Wednesday that future orders had dropped by 12%, according to Bloomberg. Bummed out investors bid down Nike share's by nearly 5% in after-hours trading.

Granted, Nike faced difficult comps. During the Beijing Olympic Games last summer Nike togs were selling like hotcakes around the globe. And a chunk of the reduction in order value came due to currency fluctuations. But it's hard to deny that this quarterly earnings announcement was a bleak reminder that the "green shoots" may be more of a Washington creation than a reality in the global economy.

Continue reading Shoe drops on Nike

Oil prices fall on economic concerns

falling oil pricesOil moved up above $70 early in the session, but was unable to hold that momentum through the day. After its strong start to the day, prices dropped $2.19 to $67.83.

A major reason for the drop in prices can be attributed to the World Bank. The World Bank slashed its forecast for this year's global economic growth, and reported that the current recession is deepening.

Continue reading Oil prices fall on economic concerns

Comfort Zone Investing: Stops and starts ... partly steam ahead!

On Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 200 points before closing a little better. No real reason for it. Pundits suggested the drop in commodity prices (oil and gold were down a little, not enough to comment on) were the reason for the dip, suggesting the economy may not be as robust nor inflation as big a problem as thought on the Friday before.

But here's the real scoop: the market has rallied well beyond a level where economic numbers justify.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Stops and starts ... partly steam ahead!

Under the radar: Declining continuing claims are a 'green shoot,' not a Sequoia

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: U.S. continuing claims for unemployment. They fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. If the downtrend in 'CCs' is sustained, that would represent another 'green shoot,' -- or sign that the U.S. recession is bottoming.

Continue reading Under the radar: Declining continuing claims are a 'green shoot,' not a Sequoia

Banks putting pressure on UK retail sales

Retail sales took an unexpected downward turn in May in the United Kingdom -- for first time in three months. Cautious banks appear to be the problem, as their rationing of credit is impeding broader economic recovery. Retail sales fell 0.6% from the previous month, while economists had predicted a 0.3% change in the other direction.

Year-over-year, retail sales were off 1.6%. Sales for the year are down 1.1%, the greatest decline since score-keeping began in 1988. Of course, there's plenty of fodder for rationalizing the results. The annual change was affected by an "unusually large" retail sales estimate for May 2008. Clothing, textile, and footwear retailers and department stores led the plunge, with nonfood store sales off 1.4%, compared to a 0.3% increase in food retail sales.

Continue reading Banks putting pressure on UK retail sales

Iranian miracles abound

The Iranian government hand counted tens of millions of presidential election ballots in a couple of hours; less time than we count ours by computer -- an Ayatollahs' miracle for sure!

These results indicated that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was able to garner two-thirds of the vote. Given the Ayatollahs miracle, the public viewed this result as anything but.

Protesters expressing their extreme objection to the election results then created a miracle of their own when up to one million marchers hit the streets forming a 5 to 6 mile parade of discontent, claims of fraud, and in some cases calling the government a dictatorship.

Meanwhile Ahmadinejad who made references to disgruntled fans after a football game in slighting the protesters, hung around for a couple of days before appearing a day late for a conference in Moscow. He missed some of the key events but he did get a chance to mention how bad the US economy was doing, neglecting to mention that Iran's economy is showing signs of falling off a cliff. If he remains president that is a real possibility.

Meanwhile the pragmatist in me knows that the greatest miracle of all would be a recanting of the election results and the president stepping down. The Ayatollahs have asked for an investigation of the election results to appease the fuming population.

The results of this investigation being conducted by the same folks that created the fraud in the first place are easier to determine than any of my stock picks. Look for the results of the investigation to acknowledge that the vote count was off by some meaningless percentage, not affecting the outcome and leaving the results as they stand.

The Ayatollahs are all for democracy as long as they get to choose who wins. Perhaps in the future they will simply default to the patterns of authoritarian rulers before them -- massive election rhetoric, with only one candidate on the ballot.

Related stories:
Iran's great potential and its challenges!
Iran will waste four more years

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Avon, Mary Kay see an employment boom

In order to keep income trickling in, companies the likes of Avon (NYSE: AVP), Mary Kay, and Tupperware are seeing a flux of salespeople -- including professionals forced to take a second job thanks to the recession.

Becke Alexander, the sales manager for Avon, noted that she hears from laid-off bankers and stay-at-home moms every week, but the company is seeing a recent boon from "gainfully employed people worried how long they'll stay that way." In fact, Alexander said, "There are no hobby seekers coming in here. It's people with a legitimate need." This pop in makeup peddlers stems directly from the current economic crisis, but not just from unemployment. A common complaint is that bonuses have disappeared, as have hours, which have forced people to turn to direct sales to make up some cash.

Continue reading Avon, Mary Kay see an employment boom

International Monetary Fund warns of a double dip

While most headlines in the financial media recently reported economists and institutions projecting the end of the recession in the second half of the year, the IMF said Monday the worst of crisis may be yet to come.

While those who think we are out of the woods believe this recession will have just one dip, the IMF seems to advocate what is known as a "double dip" recession. They believe that the expected upward swing in Gross Domestic Product for developed nations will just precede yet another economic collapse in the first half of next year.

Continue reading International Monetary Fund warns of a double dip

Foreclosures continue to mount

The good news is that there was a 6% drop in foreclosures from April to May. That is the good news, but the bad news is that May was the third straight month in a row for foreclosures topping 300,000.

RealtyTrac, which is the firm responsible for these figures stated that the exact number of foreclosure filings during the month was 321,480.

Continue reading Foreclosures continue to mount

Fed data indicates the recession may be slowing

Good news everyone! The Fed believes that the worst of the recession has passed. At least that is what its snapshot of economic conditions from yesterday showed. The data indicated that the "downward trend is showing signs of moderating" in five of the Fed's 12 regions.

Furthermore, "several" regions indicate that their expectations of future business activity have improved, but there will not be a "substantial increase" through the end of the year. In the last survey, "several regions" indicated signs of some stability at low levels. Taken in whole, the assessments of businesses on the "front lines" of the economy appear slightly better than in the last report, which was issued in mid-April.

Continue reading Fed data indicates the recession may be slowing

Doomsday Scenario: Beige book bombs, income inequality

More dark clouds for your silver lining. The Beige Book numbers came in today showing continuing mild deflation. The report, published eight times per year, is a compendium of anecdotal insights from the various Federal Reserve Banks.

A report out of Harvard University shows that income inequality in the U.S. that has ballooned since the 1970s is the result of an gap in educational attainment by U.S. children and workers. Prior to that period, children were almost always better educated than their parents. No longer. And fixing this one is going to be tough as the general cultural perception still holds that professional degrees are more important than pure scientific degrees. Lastly, as oil continues to rise, concerns are surfacing that high oil prices could halt the recovery or at least slow down the rebound.

Alex Salkever is the Director of Research at Piqqem.com, a stock prediction community powered by the Wisdom of Crowds

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-69.918,210.83
NASDAQ-25.381,771.14
S&P 500-9.26887.16

Last updated: July 06, 2009: 10:45 AM

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